Santa Anita Showvivor

[ranger5830]

It has indeed been an interesting couple weeks, as sgtennis continues his relentless march toward the lead. By my count, he has now been correct in 51 of his last 52 picks, missing only with The Gomper on Jan 30. When I first saw the handle I thought it was Sgt. Ennis, however the sgtennis twitter handle is held by someone named Simon who is a "tennis consultant." Regardless, his performance has been excellent and he would be a worthy winner if it turned out that way, but obviously I am hopeful he stumbles sometime in the next six picks.

A week ago Thursday was the day I had been waiting for for sometime, as all but one of the top seven favorites finished off the board, including a 1/2 shot in a five-horse field. Going into that day, there were 31 players with a streak of 20 in a row, after that day there were only five. The top 3 players left were all people who didn't make a selection that day (including Sgtennis, much to my dismay.)

There are now only 42 racing days left (11 weeks but no racing April 23-24) which means that anyone who misses from now on will be mathematically eliminated. And there are only 10 people who have an active streak of 16 in a row or more, and only three with 26 or more. So there's still hope, but the next two weeks will be telling.

[Dunbar]

Still so interesting! sgtennis is 4 behind ranger, but has become extremely selective and has not made a pick in several days. He's basically giving up the chance he had to take home "Most Wins" in order to concentrate completely on the show streak.

btw, that's a nice new 10-race streak you're riding, ranger.

--Dunbar

[ranger5830]

Thanks Dunbar.

You may have noticed that this streak kind of came out of nowhere, that's because on 4-18 I picked a horse in race 3 that was scratched, so they were supposed to give me the starting favorite (who won) but instead gave me the close second choice (who was off the board.) The favorite was the same odds (2.1-1) but had about $100 more bet to win. An email to Santa Anita did eventually clear this up and that's how I went from 1 to 9 in a row in one shot.

I can still mathematically improve on my 43 in a row if I don't miss for the rest of the meeting (after another successful pick today to get to 11) but my focus has shifted to trying to get the most places, that's where I feel I have the best shot (5 behind going into today) to be on top. If I fall further behind I will start going for the huge longshot highest payout category as the tiebreak is longest show streak, and that obviously works in my favor.

Today's top pick finished off the board so it will be interesting to see if sgtennis came out of hiding today and maybe picked that one. Anybody who misses from now on is mathematically eliminated from contention for the longest show streak.

[ranger5830]

For the first time since January 24, I am no longer in first place in the showvivor contest as sgtennis has finally caught me at 43 picks in a row. We are still tied but he has the tie-break with 2 more wins than me. After the next racing day, he will probably have sole possession of first place and will be virtually assured of winning since he has a 21 day lead over the next best active streak with only 28 days left.

While I am obviously disappointed to not win, I have learned alot if I ever find myself in a similar situation, mainly being able to skip a day if the races look too tough. So thanks again for the support and hopefully we can get it right if they have the same contest during the autumn meet.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

For the first time since January 24, I am no longer in first place in the showvivor contest as sgtennis has finally caught me at 43 picks in a row. We are still tied but he has the tie-break with 2 more wins than me. After the next racing day, he will probably have sole possession of first place and will be virtually assured of winning since he has a 21 day lead over the next best active streak with only 28 days left.

While I am obviously disappointed to not win, I have learned alot if I ever find myself in a similar situation, mainly being able to skip a day if the races look too tough. So thanks again for the support and hopefully we can get it right if they have the same contest during the autumn meet.

Your run was remarkable and I'm sorry you probably won't get any prize money for it. I found the competition gripping, even as a spectator, and want to be part of the next one.

Can you imagine the tension sgtennis must have been feeling after he got to about #38? He skipped so many days of racing. How about when he was one behind you at 42? It must have been really hard for him to pull the trigger on pick #43.

I hope he misses with #44 and you can race to the wire for the tiebreaker.

Congrats again on your own impressive streak.

--Dunbar

[ranger5830]

Astoundingly and as a complete surprise, sgtennis' quest for showvivor glory and riches has (at least temporarily) hit a snag, as his attempt to pick a 44th straight show horse came up short as his (presumed) pick, heavy favorite Wandering Heart in race 1, could only manage a fourth place finish in a field of five, thereby dashing his hopes for wrapping up the title, as well as costing the bridgejumping community about $129,722.

So, as far as the contest is concerned, I have an unexpected second chance at winning, as we somehow are going to wind up tied at 43 in a row. There are only two players left with any real hope of beating that number, one has 22 in a row and one has 21. There are three players at 16 in a row who could conceivably get to 43, but two of them are hopelessly far behind in the tiebreak, they have 27, 19, and 14 wins respectively. The player with 14 actually cannot win under any circumstance. I am two wins behind, 41 to 39, but that can certainly be made up with still 27 race days left, especially since second tiebreak is most places, and I have a comfortable lead there, 22 to 17.

It's a shame someone has to lose, as it was a great accomplishment to get to 43, as nobody else even got above 31 in a row. I was thinking about trying to reach out to sgtennis and see if he wants to split the money, maybe give him a little extra since he has the tiebreak lead, do you think that would be a good idea? If he is a tennis consultant, he must be reputable and a man of good character, and I would certainly never stiff anyone on a bet. I don't know if that is against the rules or somehow considered collusion or something. Anyway, wish me luck!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

Astoundingly and as a complete surprise, sgtennis' quest for showvivor glory and riches has (at least temporarily) hit a snag, as his attempt to pick a 44th straight show horse came up short as his (presumed) pick, heavy favorite Wandering Heart in race 1, could only manage a fourth place finish in a field of five, thereby dashing his hopes for wrapping up the title, as well as costing the bridgejumping community about $129,722.

So, as far as the contest is concerned, I have an unexpected second chance at winning, as we somehow are going to wind up tied at 43 in a row. There are only two players left with any real hope of beating that number, one has 22 in a row and one has 21. There are three players at 16 in a row who could conceivably get to 43, but two of them are hopelessly far behind in the tiebreak, they have 27, 19, and 14 wins respectively. The player with 14 actually cannot win under any circumstance. I am two wins behind, 41 to 39, but that can certainly be made up with still 27 race days left, especially since second tiebreak is most places, and I have a comfortable lead there, 22 to 17.

It's a shame someone has to lose, as it was a great accomplishment to get to 43, as nobody else even got above 31 in a row. I was thinking about trying to reach out to sgtennis and see if he wants to split the money, maybe give him a little extra since he has the tiebreak lead, do you think that would be a good idea? If he is a tennis consultant, he must be reputable and a man of good character, and I would certainly never stiff anyone on a bet. I don't know if that is against the rules or somehow considered collusion or something. Anyway, wish me luck!

Wow! That's amazing! (I didn't see it until just now.) Pretty funny, since I'd written on 5/12, "I hope he misses with #44 and you can race to the wire for the tiebreaker."

I got part way through your post and was thinking, "they should split the prize, with sgtennis getting a bigger share." Then I got to where you were thinking along the same lines.

I doubt splitting is against the rules. It's pretty common in various kinds of tournament play. It's what I would do in your situation. As you said, it's a shame either of you has to lose.

I see you're only 1 behind now. Given the fact that you've got the lead in 2nd tiebreaker, the split should be pretty close to 50-50.

How would you reach out to him/her, though? email address aren't shown in the contest, are they? Ah, I see he has a twitter acct. Which leads to email and phone. Well, I guess I'd read through the Showvivor rules to make sure it's okay, then call him up!

Anyway, good luck down the stretch.

--Dunbar