Derby Favorite

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

To factor in the Derby, Carpe Diem would have to magically get 5-6 lengths faster basically overnight and adjust to a chaotic 20-horse scramble after getting two of the easiest trips you will ever see in his preps. Anything below 10-1 on him would be a massive underlay.

i don't understand this argument as everyone will be facing the same 20-horse field and traffic problems galore, why is this only problematic for CD? we all know it doesn't matter how fast your horse is, b/c in a 20-horse field nothing is guaranteed, starting with the draw.

Honestly i have never seen AP run, but Dortmund's win in the SA derby was kind of a cake walk as well, yet everyone praises the performance as life altering. My take, he was up against a field in which NOBODY closed, and nobody pressured him....he put away horses IMO have no business heading to KY.....yet he dominated, which he should have, somewhat like CD.

I think a lot of people are putting emphasis into his race 2 back against FL, especially since FL goes out and dominates the Sunland Derby by 15. Personally, i think a better horse, a horse who can close would/should have gone by Dortmund that day, i don't think FL wanted to go by.....having said that, i believe if horses are given the same chance/scenario as FL, they will go by in the derby



-bt-

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by -BT-

i don't understand this argument as everyone will be facing the same 20-horse field and traffic problems galore, why is this only problematic for CD? we all know it doesn't matter how fast your horse is, b/c in a 20-horse field nothing is guaranteed, starting with the draw.

It's potentially problematic for all 20 horses, but I think it's a bigger adjustment for horses like Carpe Diem who have never had a hair in their path their whole career.

[NTamm1215]

Carpe Diem is a slightly less talented version of Gemologist. There was great hysteria about him too.

The thing that's going to crush him is the hot pace. He has had one cupcake stalking trip after another, and his garbage time rally in the BCJ when no better than 4th best in actuality does not belie those pace concerns.

[-BT-]

what i keep hearing is that the 3rd choice horse has no shot b/c he's had unbelievably easy races.....but nobody is really providing opinions or chances of those who will be higher odds then him.

it seems like everyone thinks that the derby is AP and Dort.......then everyone else. Personally, i look at this as a 20-horse cavalry charge, and i'm looking for value. I've heard a few mention Frosted as interesting, but nobody is offering a solid opinion for the case of others

-bt-

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by -BT-

what i keep hearing is that the 3rd choice horse has no shot b/c he's had unbelievably easy races.....but nobody is really providing opinions or chances of those who will be higher odds then him.

it seems like everyone thinks that the derby is AP and Dort.......then everyone else. Personally, i look at this as a 20-horse cavalry charge, and i'm looking for value. I've heard a few mention Frosted as interesting, but nobody is offering a solid opinion for the case of others

-bt-

Do Materiality and Upstart really need a "case" made for them? Upstart in particular has pretty clearly proven himself superior to Carpe Diem.

You've mentioned three horses and I've mentioned two that are simply better than CD at this point. If you're running to bet the 6th most likely (at best) winner in the Derby at 6-1 or 8-1, be my guest.

[asudevil]

Shouldn't a pedigree discussion get folded into this thread?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Shouldn't a pedigree discussion get folded into this thread?

why?
not one of those horses know who their mama is...let alone their daddy.

a famous trainer made mention of that when asked why he took a state bred horse to kentucky...he said the horse can't read his birth certificate and doesn't know where he's from.
the full quote escapes me...might have been charlie wittingham that said it.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Do Materiality and Upstart really need a "case" made for them? Upstart in particular has pretty clearly proven himself superior to Carpe Diem.

You've mentioned three horses and I've mentioned two that are simply better than CD at this point. If you're running to bet the 6th most likely (at best) winner in the Derby at 6-1 or 8-1, be my guest.

Materiality is only going up against history and all with the last horse to win and not to race at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Sure he looks like a good horse from 3 starts.

curious as to how you came up with the assessment that Upstart has proven himself superior to CD? honestly what's your basis on that? and i'm not asking to be an azzhat, i just don't see it.

and for the record i don't think you're getting upstart or materiality a lick over 15-1, with Materiality's case wouldn't be surprised if he goes under 10-1.?

-bt-

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Materiality is only going up against history and all with the last horse to win and not to race at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Sure he looks like a good horse from 3 starts.

curious as to how you came up with the assessment that Upstart has proven himself superior to CD? honestly what's your basis on that? and i'm not asking to be an azzhat, i just don't see it.

and for the record i don't think you're getting upstart or materiality a lick over 15-1, with Materiality's case wouldn't be surprised if he goes under 10-1.?

-bt-

Upstart ran much better than Carpe Diem in the Juvenile. His Holy Bull was as good as any race Carpe Diem has ever run. When you combine the FOY and Fla Derby, I think they are better than the TB Derby and Blue Grass. The competition Upstart has faced has been legitimate and he has been forced into a style that really does not fit him. His best races as a 2YO came when he could relax and make one run. If they return to that approach in the Derby, he will be much more dangerous. He'll also be 2-3x the price of Carpe Diem.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by -BT-

Materiality is only going up against history and all with the last horse to win and not to race at 2 was Apollo in 1882. Sure he looks like a good horse from 3 starts.

curious as to how you came up with the assessment that Upstart has proven himself superior to CD? honestly what's your basis on that? and i'm not asking to be an azzhat, i just don't see it.

and for the record i don't think you're getting upstart or materiality a lick over 15-1, with Materiality's case wouldn't be surprised if he goes under 10-1.?

-bt-

Materiality can win but he is my first toss of the REAL contenders