3/27-29 (CD): Kentucky Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4

[cakes44]

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

I suppose that were daredevil to win the wood, 30/1 would be value.

But yeah, what's the point

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Smarty Cide

tough to bet in this pool. most of the odds u can get close to on derby day

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

Whether either of those statements is true will depend on the closing odds of the Future Wager, not the ML.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

[NavalOrange]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

If you pick and bet on the eventual winner of the Derby you will make money (80-1).

[cakes44]

Are you talking about a particular horse that is 80-1 right now? If not, then yes you will definitely make money if you pick and bet the horse that wins the KD. Pretty sure the goal is to have a horse run in, then win the KD at the best odds possible.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, obviously. But what I'm saying is that just about any of the horses that might be under the radar or whatever are running this weekend, so you're not likely to make any money.

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:

Originally Posted by cakes44

There is zero value anywhere.

The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Yes I was overstating a bit. However, your analogy is somewhat off. At least all of the horses in the races at GP and SA are actually running in the races you mentioned.

[saratogadew]

Mr. Z for a hundred please.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What I took issue with was this blanket statement:


The Future Wager is parimutual, so there's every chance that there will be overbet and underbet horses. Saying now that there "is zero value anywhere" in the Future Wager is like saying today that there will be no value in the 8th races at Santa Anita or Gulfstream on Sunday.

--Dunbar

this would be true, IF every listed horse were to make the gate. If you factor that in to the equation, there really are no good bets in this pool. The odds difference makes it worth waiting for Derby day in case your horse does not run.

[Kasept]

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 FINAL ODDS

(No. Horse Trainer P1 P2 P3 P4)

1. American Pharoah (B.Baffert) 12-1/10-1/8-1 5-1
2. Ami’s Flatter (J.Carroll) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
3. Bold Conquest (S.Asmussen) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 91-1
4. Bolo (C.Gaines) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/34-1 28-1
5. Carpe Diem (T.Pletcher) 15-1/12-1/10-1 10-1
6. Daredevil (T.Pletcher) 48-1/40-1/43-1 39-1

7. Dortmund (B.Baffert) 9-1/10-1/9-1 6-1
8. Dubai Sky (W.Mott) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 23-1
9. El Kabeir (J.Terranova) 74-1/39-1/47-1 28-1
10. Far From Over (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/13-1 14-1
11. Far Right (R.Moquett) 3-5(f)/48-1/30-1 39-1
12. Firing Line (S.Callaghan) 3-5(f)/35-1/29-1 13-1

13. Frosted (K.McLaughlin) 38-1/31-1/4-1(f) 40-1
14. International Star (M.Maker) 3-5(f)/44-1/22-1 17-1
15. Itsaknockout (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/30-1/30-1 53-1
16. Keen Ice (D.Romans) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/27-1 69-1
17. Madefromlucky (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 92-1
18. Materiality (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 12-1

19. Mr. Z (W.Lukas) 47-1/ 44-1/44-1 70-1
20. Mubtaahij (M.deKock) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 8-1
21. Prospect Park (C.Sise) 3/5(f)/35-1/26-1 18-1
22. Upstart (R.Violette) 53-1/12-1/15-1 18-1
23. War Story (T.Amoss) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/30-1 41-1
24. Field (all others) (n/a) 3-5/5-2/4-1 11-1

(f) – denotes field entry.

Win pool: $273,017
Exacta pool: $144,456
Total: $417,673
Four-pool aggregate: $1,523,175

[Fulla Sheets]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1. American Pharoah (B.Baffert) 12-1/10-1/8-1 5-1

5. Carpe Diem (T.Pletcher) 15-1/12-1/10-1 10-1

7. Dortmund (B.Baffert) 9-1/10-1/9-1 6-1

10. Far From Over (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/13-1 14-1

12. Firing Line (S.Callaghan) 3-5(f)/35-1/29-1 13-1

18. Materiality (T.Pletcher) 3-5(f)/5-2(f)/4-1(f) 12-1

Top 6 American horses for the derby: 3 trained by Pletcher, 2 trained by Baffert, and 1 owned by a former Baffert owner.

No problem here

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Don't get me wrong, I like me some futures, but the total pool for this should be like $550. There is zero value anywhere.

are you saying that American Pharoah 5-1 and Dortmund 7-1 is not a good ROI?