Cozmic One

declansharbor · #1 03-20-2015, 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I thought Nicanor went off at 5-1 and ran 2nd. That is what racereplays.com is showing.

That might have been his second race. I only remember bc I smashed the $hit out of the race with Warrior's Reward. I'll never in my life forget it. Parx patrons couldnt take their eyes off of my brother & I for going bananas.

cakes44 · #2 03-20-2015, 07:39 PM

Word around the backstretch is he's being moved to the John Ward barn for a more aggressive training approach.

Rupert Pupkin · #3 03-20-2015, 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

That might have been his second race. I only remember bc I smashed the $hit out of the race with Warrior's Reward. I'll never in my life forget it. Parx patrons couldnt take their eyes off of my brother & I for going bananas.

I think you are right. Racereplays.com does not cover Parx. So the first race they show for him is at Gulfstream. It was so long ago that I don't even remember. I remember watching some of his grass races at Gulfstream but I don't remember his debut at all.

blackthroatedwind · #4 03-20-2015, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think you are right. Racereplays.com does not cover Parx. So the first race they show for him is at Gulfstream. It was so long ago that I don't even remember. I remember watching some of his grass races at Gulfstream but I don't remember his debut at all.

His debut was at Gulfstream ( I think Warrior's Reward won it at a HUGE price ). I feel like he opened at 1:5. I was at Horsemens Park in Omaha.

He didn't debut at Parx.

GenuineRisk · #5 03-20-2015, 08:45 PM

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?...rse&id=3875117

Rupert Pupkin · #6 03-20-2015, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His debut was at Gulfstream ( I think Warrior's Reward won it at a HUGE price ). I feel like he opened at 1:5. I was at Horsemens Park in Omaha.

He didn't debut at Parx.

When a horse scratches, racereplays will have the race listed but the finish position is left blank. They show his finish position as blank in that race on Jan. 31, 2009. So I assumed he scratched that day and that his debut was the next listed race where it shows he finished 2nd on March 7. But as you said, I now see that he did in fact run in that race on Jan. 31 that Warrior's Reward won at 30-1. I have no idea why racereplays showed Nicanor's finish position as blank when he did in fact run in that race.
Anyway, I guess he was 4-1 on the morning line and got hammered early but ended up going off at 5-2.

blackthroatedwind · #7 03-21-2015, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

When a horse scratches, racereplays will have the race listed but the finish position is left blank. They show his finish position as blank in that race on Jan. 31, 2009. So I assumed he scratched that day and that his debut was the next listed race where it shows he finished 2nd on March 7. But as you said, I now see that he did in fact run in that race on Jan. 31 that Warrior's Reward won at 30-1. I have no idea why racereplays showed Nicanor's finish position as blank when he did in fact run in that race.
Anyway, I guess he was 4-1 on the morning line and got hammered early but ended up going off at 5-2.

It's OK that you were wrong. Most of us, probably even you ( and definitely me ), are wrong ALL the time.

declansharbor · #8 03-21-2015, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's OK that you were wrong. Most of us, probably even you ( and definitely me ), are wrong ALL the time.

I got the sense that his main objective was to discredit my "bet-against" assertion.

Pup's been having a rough go on this board lately lol

Rupert Pupkin · #9 03-21-2015, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

I got the sense that his main objective was to discredit my "bet-against" assertion.

Pup's been having a rough go on this board lately lol

I wasn't trying to discredit your bet against assertion. I was just curious to see what the horse went off at that day. Then when I looked at racereplays and thought he was only 5-1 and ran 2nd, I couldn't figure out how that was a great bet against. But you were right, he was a relatively low price (5-2).

Do I think it is a good angle to bet against half or full brothers to great horses? Do I think it's a good angle to bet against horses out of great mares? It just depends. If I have info that the horse is no good and the horse is getting bet heavily, then the answer is yes. But if I have no info, then I don't think it's a great angle. If a horse is slightly overbet, that's not going to be enough to give you an edge that will overcome the 16% vig. If a horse that should be 3-1 is 2-1, I'm not going to unload on the rest of the field. When Zenyatta's sister (Eblouissnate) made her debut, was she a great bet against? I don't know. I would say probably not. She ended up going off at 7-5 and she won. Was she overbet? She was probably slightly overbet but she was working well and she had more than one sibling that was a grade I winner. In addition, I know Zenyatta won first time out. I can't remember whether Balance (her other sister) won first time out.

declansharbor · #10 03-20-2015, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think you are right. Racereplays.com does not cover Parx. So the first race they show for him is at Gulfstream. It was so long ago that I don't even remember. I remember watching some of his grass races at Gulfstream but I don't remember his debut at all.

Nicanor's race was at Gulfstream. MSW at a mile.

I was at Parx with my brother. Him & I w/ a smile.

South Beach Luv · #11 03-20-2015, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Nicanor's race was at Gulfstream. MSW at a mile.

I was at Parx with my brother. Him & I w/ a smile.

was bored and pulled up the chart:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/char...09&cy=USA&rn=8

Big Flirt is still in training and just won at Mahoning Valley Race Course on 3/9.