Thoro-Graph year-end free data promo & Q/A thread

[senator L]

I'll be betting Clearbrook. Just like the way she runs.
Doesn't seem like it is coming up too tough and the 4 and 12
will be over bet imo though the 12 will be one to beat.
Looks like a who ever can run a "3" should get the job done.
Am I right in reading Clement is only at 4% with 5 years old and up
between nov and jan - that means running a new best

[senator L]

BTW how did you figure out she has an 88% chance of running
worse than a 4.
Thanks for your help

[golfer]

Originally Posted by senator L

BTW how did you figure out she has an 88% chance of running
worse than a 4.
Thanks for your help

Clearbrook's pattern percentages indicate 46% chance of OFF, which is somewhat worse than the top, and 42% chance of X, which is much worse than the top. So adding the 2 gives us 88%. Again, this is pattern only, it does not take anything else into consideration.

[senator L]

so the #3 beside the 4 at Bel when she was 4yrs old means
4.75? If one runs a 5 and the other a 4 how many lengths does
that usually mean? Do lengths increase as the numbers?

[golfer]

Originally Posted by senator L

so the #3 beside the 4 at Bel when she was 4yrs old means
4.75? If one runs a 5 and the other a 4 how many lengths does
that usually mean? Do lengths increase as the numbers?

Yes, they do the figures to the 1/4 point. 1, 2 and 3 indicate .25, .50, and .75 when they appear next to and above the main figure.

The Introduction page at the website gives you a glossary and explains how many lengths each point is worth, at different distances. 1 point = 1 length at 5 furlongs, and 2 lengths at a mile and a quarter. You can extrapolate in between.

But the difference between a 5 and a 4.75 is negligible, in my opinion, anyway.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by senator L

BTW how did you figure out she has an 88% chance of running
worse than a 4.
Thanks for your help

One of the best ways to understand the whole methodology is to use the free "Race of the Week" that is available most weeks of the year. Gives a good insight as to how the figures are applied. Sometimes the patterns and cycles they come up with are very insightful.............it's a great product. A lot of their past Breeders Cup and Triple Crown races analysis are available on Youtube also.

[dellinger63]

I suggest anyone wanting to learn TG's apply them to the 12/26, 3rd Race at Gulfstream.

[senator L]

Using these I came up with #2

I've gone through the "how to read" and still can't find section
explaining symbols - triangle, square, bullet, all solid.
Watched the tutorial (video) and it never explains anything about the
section of numbers on the left. I tried to listen to the audio component
but it was so bad I couldn't listen any longer. It sounded like it was taped
through a couple beer cans. I wonder why they would have that
on their website?

Any reason why they don't include m/l #'s

[senator L]

oops, have to re-visit I download and studied 27th

[senator L]

Well the #5 has a 46% chance of running a 10 or better
which should win this race
If he was the right price I'd bet him
#2 2nd out mdn over 10-1 has 2.65 roi
#7 1st turf B Tagg roi 2.95

What do the -- and - before the number mean?
thank you !

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by senator L

Using these I came up with #2

I've gone through the "how to read" and still can't find section
explaining symbols - triangle, square, bullet, all solid.
Watched the tutorial (video) and it never explains anything about the
section of numbers on the left. I tried to listen to the audio component
but it was so bad I couldn't listen any longer. It sounded like it was taped
through a couple beer cans. I wonder why they would have that
on their website?

Any reason why they don't include m/l #'s

Page 4 of every Race of the Week has the symbol glossary.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by dellinger63

I suggest anyone wanting to learn TG's apply them to the 12/26, 3rd Race at Gulfstream.

...and the winner is?

[dellinger63]

Originally Posted by senator L

...and the winner is?

The TG cipher I read is the 9 including the race shape indicating she should be able to sort out a favorable position early. Don't anticipate her being anywhere near 8-1 post time though.

The fact she's a full to Emollient and bred to go all day doesn't hurt either.

GL

[senator L]

Yikes 7-5 on your horse! More people are using the
sheets than I thought lol

[golfer]

Originally Posted by senator L

I'll be betting Clearbrook. Just like the way she runs.
Doesn't seem like it is coming up too tough and the 4 and 12
will be over bet imo though the 12 will be one to beat.
Looks like a who ever can run a "3" should get the job done.
Am I right in reading Clement is only at 4% with 5 years old and up
between nov and jan - that means running a new best

Correct, but that 4% is only getting them to run new tops. He gets pairs 43%, and wins at a 21% rate. So there is a good chance Tabreed won't run better than a 5, BUT, with a ground saving trip, who's to say a 5 can't win? The key thing to remember is the horse who gets the best figure does NOT always win. Due to ground loss, weight carried, and other assorted issues.
By the way, Clearbrook's top of 4.75 is basically the same. Even TG doesn't guarantee their figures to a .25 point accuracy. Which is not to say I don't think Clearbrook will win, I actually haven't handicapped the race yet.

In fact, I'd love for Thorograph to do a study on how often the horse that gets the best fig in a race actually wins?