American Pharoah out

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Stick to your first post in here, you were on the right track.
Im not trying to pick a fight with anyone. My point is this, what is the point to call him a bet against now that he is not running? He was a much more likely winner then Daredevil IMO.

That's silly. About him being a much more likely winner than Daredevil.

I'll grant you that Daredevil, of the two, was more likely to flop badly.

And yeah, I understand you thinking Nick was being a chicken not posting that thought before AP was scratched, but hell, the race is still four days away. Not too many people have posted their analysis just yet.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That's silly. About him being a much more likely winner than Daredevil.

I'll grant you that Daredevil, of the two, was more likely to flop badly.

And yeah, I understand you thinking Nick was being a chicken not posting that thought before AP was scratched, but hell, the race is still four days away. Not too many people have posted their analysis just yet.

Why is it silly? Daredevil might be great but in this spot, vs these horses Im making him prove it to me over a fast track. As far as Im concerned Upstart is more likely then Daredevil... He has a fast race, over a fast surface.

[asudevil]

Get out your Calculator!!

[jms62]

Calculator, One Lucky Dane and Souper Collassal for me

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jms62

Calculator, One Lucky Dane and Souper Collassal for me

One Lucky Dane replaces Pharoah in my top three. He is clearly a dirt horse, his last was strong.

[tanner12oz]

I like carpe diem but he knows becomes the chalk...
blah

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

I like carpe diem but he knows becomes the chalk...
blah

No way he is the chalk with Daredevil. Im not saying he will be a price, but he will be 2nd or 3rd choice.

[Conrad]

Calculator is a maiden - has a maiden ever won the BrCup Juvy?

I like Texas Red

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by Conrad

Calculator is a maiden - has a maiden ever won the BrCup Juvy?

I like Texas Red

Action this Day I believe was a maiden

[Conrad]

Originally Posted by Conrad

Calculator is a maiden - has a maiden ever won the BrCup Juvy?

I like Texas Red

Well that went according to plan.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

That's silly. About him being a much more likely winner than Daredevil.

I'll grant you that Daredevil, of the two, was more likely to flop badly.

And yeah, I understand you thinking Nick was being a chicken not posting that thought before AP was scratched, but hell, the race is still four days away. Not too many people have posted their analysis just yet.

Nick is a chicken? How is a guy that does public handicapping considered a chicken?

Nick has one of the best opinions of anyone I have ever known. His public handicapping record is superior. He's also about the least disingenuous person I have ever known. He didn't like American Pharoah. Frankly, no handicapper whose opinion I respect at all liked him on Saturday.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nick is a chicken? How is a guy that does public handicapping considered a chicken?

Nick has one of the best opinions of anyone I have ever known. His public handicapping record is superior. He's also about the least disingenuous person I have ever known. He didn't like American Pharoah. Frankly, no handicapper whose opinion I respect at all liked him on Saturday.

I wasn't calling him a chicken. I was saying I could understand how RTH might think he was chicken by not posting his opinion about AP before he was withdrawn.

I then said that there was still four days still left until the race, meaning that his opinion would have been more than likely posted in the coming days.

[Indian Charlie]

I am curious as to what all these handicappers saw in AP that made him a toss out in this race.

I saw him far from being a lock in there, but I can see nothing that would make me think he's a complete throwout.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I wasn't calling him a chicken. I was saying I could understand how RTH might think he was chicken by not posting his opinion about AP before he was withdrawn.

I then said that there was still four days still left until the race, meaning that his opinion would have been more than likely posted in the coming days.

I never called him a chicken. I said its a silly thing to say because now the horse is not running anyway. The horse has paired up triple digit beyers, that's big for a 2yr old. Why anyone would call him the biggest bet against of the weekend is confusing to me. I would think horses like Judy the Beauty and No Nay Never at 5-2 and 9-2 would be much bigger bet's against then American Monster.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I wasn't calling him a chicken. I was saying I could understand how RTH might think he was chicken by not posting his opinion about AP before he was withdrawn.

I then said that there was still four days still left until the race, meaning that his opinion would have been more than likely posted in the coming days.

I knew what you meant. I should have said it differently.

He set a very slow pace last time, having things very much his own way, and was meeting both better horses and horses that were faster early.

It wasn't that he couldn't win, it was more that he was a reasonably unlikely winner that was going to be favored. That makes him a great bet against.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I knew what you meant. I should have said it differently.

He set a very slow pace last time, having things very much his own way, and was meeting both better horses and horses that were faster early.

It wasn't that he couldn't win, it was more that he was a reasonably unlikely winner that was going to be favored. That makes him a great bet against.

Hey BTW,

Where will your BC selections be posted? nyra.com?

Thanks,
ASU

[Calzone Lord]

If Upstart was trained by someone generic -- he'd be both my Breeders Cup Juvenile horse and my early Kentucky Derby standout prospect.

Unfortunately, he's trained by Rick Violette, who is uncommonly good with debuting 2-year-olds -- and unlike the general trainer, he's not a guy that you can trust to develop a horse who is impressive early.

That horse is by Flatter out of a Touch Gold mare. Not only is that a big-time anti precocity pedigree, but it's a very good distance pedigree. Both the grandsire (A. P. Indy) and damsire (Touch Gold) were Belmont Stakes winners.

He was so green in his debut, Ortiz looked like your average 7-lbs bug riding him, and he still blew a nice NY Bred MSW field away with a good figure going just 5.5 furlongs.

If Rick Violette has no association with this horse, and he wasn't going East to West and breaking from post 13...I'd be real excited about him.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

If Upstart was trained by someone generic -- he'd be both my Breeders Cup Juvenile horse and my early Kentucky Derby standout prospect.

Unfortunately, he's trained by Rick Violette, who is uncommonly good with debuting 2-year-olds -- and unlike the general trainer, he's not a guy that you can trust to develop a horse who is impressive early.

That horse is by Flatter out of a Touch Gold mare. Not only is that a big-time anti precocity pedigree, but it's a very good distance pedigree. Both the grandsire (A. P. Indy) and damsire (Touch Gold) were Belmont Stakes winners.

He was so green in his debut, Ortiz looked like your average 7-lbs bug riding him, and he still blew a nice NY Bred MSW field away with a good figure going just 5.5 furlongs.

If Rick Violette has no association with this horse, and he wasn't going East to West and breaking from post 13...I'd be real excited about him.

In a way hasnt he already busted the Violette curse?? He has run 3 big races already. Not just one and fall apart like the typical Rick V baby.