Weekend Stakes Beyers

Kasept · #1 10-05-2014, 06:42 AM

KEE Shadwell Turf Mile S (G1): Wise Dan 103 (Wiseman's Ferry) C. LoPresti/J. Velazquez
KEE Breeders' Futurity (G1): Carpe Diem 91 (Giant's Causeway) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
KEE First Lady S (G1): Dayatthespa 102 (City Zip) C. Brown/J. Velazquez
KEE TCA S (G2): Leigh Court 99 (Grand Slam) J. Carroll/G. Boulanger
KEE Woodford S (G3): No Nay Never 91 (Scat Daddy) W. Ward/M. Smith
KEE Juddmonte Spinster S (G1): Don't Tell Sophia 94 (Congaree) P. Sims/J. Rocco
KEE Dixiana Bourbon S (G3): Lawn Ranger 74 (U S Ranger) K. McPeek/C. Landeros
KEE Alcibiades S (G1): Peace and War 81 (War Front) O. Stevens/J. Leparoux
KEE Phoenix S (G3): Work All Week 100 City Zip R. Brueggemann F. Geroux

BEL Champagne S (G1): Daredevil 107 (More Than Ready) T. Pletcher/J. Castellano
BEL Frizette S (G1): By the Moon 78 (Indian Charlie) M. Nevin/J. Ortiz
BEL Hill Prince S (G3): Ring Weekend 96 (Tapit) H. Motion/I. Ortiz
BEL Matron S (G2): Paulassilverlining 80 (Ghostzapper) M. Nevin/J. Ortiz
BEL Futurity S (G2): Blofeld 100 (Quality Road) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez
BEL Temperence Hill Invitational S: Ever Rider-ARG 94 (Rider Stripes-ARG) M. Montoya/J. Castellano

SA Santa Anita Sprint Ch. S (G1): Rich Tapestry-IRE 105 (Holy Roman Emperor-IRE) C. Chang/O. Doleuze
SA City of Hope Mile S (G2): Big Bane Theory 98 (Artie Schiller) C. Gaines/J. Talamo
SA L.A. Woman S (G3): Top Kisser 91 (Old Topper) J. Hollendorfer/E. Trujillo
SA Swingtime S: Rhagori-GB 83 (Exceed And Excel-AUS) S. Callaghan/J. Talamo
SA Surfer Girl S: Her Emmyenncy 84 (Successful Appeal) M. Stidham/J. Talamo
SA Zuma Beach S: Luck of the Kitten 84 (Kitten's Joy) W. Ward/C. Nakatani

IND Indiana Derby (G2): East Hall 97 (Graeme Hall) W. Kaplan/L. Saez
IND Indiana Oaks (G2): Tiz Windy 92 (Tiznow) C. Nafzger/B. Hernandez
IND TaWee S: Kiss Moon 86 (Malibu Moon) D. Vance/R. Prescott
IND Mari Hulman George S: Quiet Success 88 (Successful Appeal) T. Amoss/M. Franklin
IND Schaefer Memorial S: Abraham 90 (Distorted Humor) W. Mott/J. Rosario

WO Durham Cup S (G3): Lukes Alley 97 (Flower Alley) J. Carroll/L. Contreras
WO Mazarine S (G3): Conquest Harlanate 66 (Harlan's Holiday) M. Casse/P. Husbands
WO Grey S (G3): International Star 66 (Fusaichi Pegasus) M. Maker/R. Hernandez

GP Florida Sire In Reality S: Sing Praises 72 (Hear No Evil) S. Gold/R. Zimmerman
GP Florida Sire My Dear Girl S: Holywell 69 (Exclusive Quality) J. Pinchin/O. Bocachica
GP Armed Forces S: Hubba Shake 68 (Street Sense) M. Wolfson/J. Gonzales
GP Our Dear Peggy: Red Sashay 65 (Big Brown) J. Cibelli/R. Zimmerman

FL New York Breeders' Futurity: Good Luck Gus 81 (Lookin At Lucky) R. Rodriguez/W. Rohena

freddymo · #2 10-05-2014, 10:36 AM

78 for By the Moon will prove out to be a bad fig to use going forward. That has to be the lowest g1 fig ever assigned to a winner

Indian Charlie · #3 10-05-2014, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

78 for By the Moon will prove out to be a bad fig to use going forward. That has to be the lowest g1 fig ever assigned to a winner

I think I've seen lower for the frizette before.

Do you think the number should have been higher or lower?

Kasept · #4 10-05-2014, 03:54 PM

Sutra posted a 68 in the '05 Frizette.

Lowest before that in a G1 might have been Sweet Catomine with a 76 in the '04 DMR Debutante.

#5 10-06-2014, 12:05 AM

Don Warren's FTS on Sunday was visually impressive in the nightcap. Made an early move at the 3/8th pole that looked effortless and wins by double digit lengths. Acceptance is the horse's name.

Kasept · #6 10-06-2014, 04:30 AM

KEE Juddmonte Spinster S (G1): Don't Tell Sophia 94 (Congaree) P. Sims/J. Rocco
KEE Dixiana Bourbon S (G3): Lawn Ranger 74 (U S Ranger) K. McPeek/C. Landeros

WO Mazarine S (G3): Conquest Harlanate 66 (Harlan's Holiday) M. Casse/P. Husbands
WO Grey S (G3): International Star 66 (Fusaichi Pegasus) M. Maker/R. Hernandez

BEL Matron S (G2): Paulassilverlining 80 (Ghostzapper) M. Nevin/J. Ortiz
BEL Futurity S (G2): Blofeld 100 (Quality Road) T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez

SA Surfer Girl S: Her Emmyenncy -- (Successful Appeal) M. Stidham/J. Talamo
SA Zuma Beach S: Luck of the Kitten -- (Kitten's Joy) W. Ward/C. Nakatani

Kasept · #7 10-06-2014, 04:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

78 for By the Moon will prove out to be a bad fig to use going forward. That has to be the lowest g1 fig ever assigned to a winner

Freddy.. Champagne winner was more than 3 full seconds faster. 29 points is the scale spread. How much bigger should the Frizette number be? If the filly ran say an 83, that would mean the colt ran a 112? And if you want to make track condition an hour after the Frizette an issue, with it drying out, it would almost certainly be slower for the Champagne, not faster. Don't know how the Frizette can come up any better than it did.

freddymo · #8 10-06-2014, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy.. Champagne winner was more than 3 full seconds faster. 29 points is the scale spread. How much bigger should the Frizette number be? If the filly ran say an 83, that would mean the colt ran a 112? And if you want to make track condition an hour after the Frizette an issue, with it drying out, it would almost certainly be slower for the Champagne, not faster. Don't know how the Frizette can come up any better than it did.

# is 100% correct but that means the all of these regressed a lot and I dont think the fig will be useful for handicapping in future

Kasept · #9 10-06-2014, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo

# is 100% correct but that means the all of these regressed a lot and I dont think the fig will be useful for handicapping in future

Got ya.. In other words, (hopefully) the group isn't as bad as the looked and will prove it in forthcoming efforts...

freddymo · #10 10-06-2014, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Got ya.. In other words, (hopefully) the group isn't as bad as the looked and will prove it in forthcoming efforts...

Always root for JMS(Sam) I thought it was an OK group before the race the fig didnt change my mind. Happy for Sam she deserves some racing mazel

blackthroatedwind · #11 10-06-2014, 10:06 AM

I'm curious, what exactly had the group in the Frizette done on the racetrack to suggest they were a bunch of fast horses? I don't have an argument that horses shouldn't be overly judged by performances on wet tracks, especially when horses like Cavorting and Wonder Gal were mired down on a deeper inside, but as of now there is little concrete evidence that any of them are particularly fast, especially going long.

We'll see. However, as of now, there are quite a few faster male 2YOs than female ones.

Indian Charlie · #12 10-06-2014, 10:57 AM

The Champagne winner was completely and utterly tremendous.

The two Pletchers and one Baffert colt in the BCJ is going to be a really interesting race.

About the Frizette, they did look like they slowed up pretty badly in the last quarter mile, but it didn't look like they were going 28 or so seconds. That was pretty surprising.

RockHardTen1985 · #13 10-06-2014, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The Champagne winner was completely and utterly tremendous.

The two Pletchers and one Baffert colt in the BCJ is going to be a really interesting race.

About the Frizette, they did look like they slowed up pretty badly in the last quarter mile, but it didn't look like they were going 28 or so seconds. That was pretty surprising.

Completely and utterly tremendous might be a little bit of an exaggeration, no?
He is undefeated over sloppy tracks, lets keep that in mind before we crown him champion. I prefer Carpe Diem and American Pharaoh to him right now. I think Blofeld will be as good as Daredevil when its all said and done.

Indian Charlie · #14 10-07-2014, 12:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Completely and utterly tremendous might be a little bit of an exaggeration, no?
He is undefeated over sloppy tracks, lets keep that in mind before we crown him champion. I prefer Carpe Diem and American Pharaoh to him right now. I think Blofeld will be as good as Daredevil when its all said and done.

I'm referring to his one specific race, the Champagne. He was spectacular in that race.

He looked a lot like the two year old version of his sire.

The bc is wide open, with your beloved probably the third choice

RockHardTen1985 · #15 10-07-2014, 01:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I'm referring to his one specific race, the Champagne. He was spectacular in that race.

He looked a lot like the two year old version of his sire.

The bc is wide open, with your beloved probably the third choice

Do you want to see Daredevil in the BC? Like I said it feels like they are rushing him....
Im not sure its wide open American Pharaoh feels like the horse to beat, even over my beloved Carpe Diem.

cmorioles · #16 10-09-2014, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Freddy.. Champagne winner was more than 3 full seconds faster. 29 points is the scale spread. How much bigger should the Frizette number be? If the filly ran say an 83, that would mean the colt ran a 112? And if you want to make track condition an hour after the Frizette an issue, with it drying out, it would almost certainly be slower for the Champagne, not faster. Don't know how the Frizette can come up any better than it did.

You don't think tracks change speed, especially on a very sloppy main track? The race in between was nowhere near the Champagne either. Are those horses really more than 2 seconds slower than two year olds going long for the first time? How does the Frizette compare to race 7?

Kasept · #17 10-09-2014, 11:02 AM

No CJ.. I don't believe tracks change speed...

Of course it's subject to change on a day like Saturday and the boys and girls are likely closer in performance levels than the raw figures indicate. We'll see how close. As Andy suggests, expectations for those fillies was overblown..

cmorioles · #18 10-09-2014, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

No CJ.. I don't believe tracks change speed...

Of course it's subject to change on a day like Saturday and the boys and girls are likely closer in performance levels than the raw figures indicate. We'll see how close. As Andy suggests, expectations for those fillies was overblown..

You are probably right, but I just find it odd most people are pretending the 7th race didn't exist. That was a pretty decent group of solid horses, and also pretty consistent speed wise. It made for a good comparison to both races.

NTamm1215 · #19 10-09-2014, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

You are probably right, but I just find it odd most people are pretending the 7th race didn't exist. That was a pretty decent group of solid horses, and also pretty consistent speed wise. It made for a good comparison to both races.

I noticed your figs for the winners of the Champagne and Frizette are not far off, obviously because of the significant differences in pace. I think the strength of that Frizette pace is what has been lost a little bit in the post-race analysis.

freddymo · #20 10-09-2014, 01:43 PM

The expectations of the fillies may have been too lofty. I dont think its a bad group at all and I think several have a graded stakes future, the 78 fig tends to paint them in a horrendous light.