5/6: Churchill ($781k C/O)

[Kasept]

Like remnants of a hurricane or aftershocks post-earthquake, the $781,000 carryover produced by Mine That Bird and Orthodox may be the last vestage of horseplayer's attempts to salvage something significant from the challenging Derby-Oaks Weekend.

Came away from the Kentucky trip satisfied from a racing quality standpoint and down $100 from the wagering perspective thank entirely to the Derby. Looking back, casting nets widely in P3's may be the best approach to the Oaks-Derby Weekend Cards. Look at these sequences in $1 P3's up to the points where Orthodox and Mine That Bird likely stopped most P4/P3 runs:

Friday:
Chamberlain Bridge-Miss Isella-Laragh: $186
Miss Isella-Laragh-Bullsbay: $318

Saturday:
Accredit-Four Gifts-Tizaqueena: $307
Four Gifts-Tizaqueena-Informed Decision: $212
Tizaqueena-Informed Decision-Einstein: $125

More than $1,100 in P3's are there with horses that were necessities on tickets. Thought this was edifying as I looked back at my play from Friday and Saturday. Hope you did OK over Oaks-Derby and finish the 'First Weekend in May' strong today!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Yankee Player 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Five Star Sweetie 5-1 WON
Next Best: #9 SCR
Super Add: #1 Morning Magic 5-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $23.20
$1 Trifecta (5-1-8) Paid $53.50


5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Formal Dannie 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Gatorize 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Burke's Sister 9-2 5th
Super Add: #1 No Image 6-1 4th


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #2 High Quail WON
Next Best: #12 Caffeine Free 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Maria's Moon 3rd


7th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Stratos 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 Emma's Posse 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 Lookn Mighty Fast 5-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Pound the Rock 8-1 6th


8th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 11f (DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #4 Silver Mountain 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Hidden Glance 5-2 3rd


9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Hi-5 C/O: $252,000

Most Likely: #4 Jolly Ol' Nick 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Shot Gun Cliff 6-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Mr. Champ 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Wayfarer 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Steds Pirate 12-1 7th


@$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-5-8
5: 3-4-6
6: 2
7: 2-4-6
8: 4-5
9: 4-5

3x3x1x3x2x2 = 108 x $2 = $216

$2 Pick 6 (5/3/1,2,4,5,6,9,11/4/3/5) Paid $252.60 (5OF6) x 2 = $505.20


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-12
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 4-5
9: 2-3-4-5-6-8

2x4x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve