5/6: Churchill ($781k C/O)
 

Like remnants of a hurricane or aftershocks post-earthquake, the $781,000 carryover produced by Mine That Bird and Orthodox may be the last vestage of horseplayer's attempts to salvage something significant from the challenging Derby-Oaks Weekend.

Came away from the Kentucky trip satisfied from a racing quality standpoint and down $100 from the wagering perspective thank entirely to the Derby. Looking back, casting nets widely in P3's may be the best approach to the Oaks-Derby Weekend Cards. Look at these sequences in $1 P3's up to the points where Orthodox and Mine That Bird likely stopped most P4/P3 runs:

Friday:
Chamberlain Bridge-Miss Isella-Laragh: $186
Miss Isella-Laragh-Bullsbay: $318

Saturday:
Accredit-Four Gifts-Tizaqueena: $307
Four Gifts-Tizaqueena-Informed Decision: $212
Tizaqueena-Informed Decision-Einstein: $125

More than $1,100 in P3's are there with horses that were necessities on tickets. Thought this was edifying as I looked back at my play from Friday and Saturday. Hope you did OK over Oaks-Derby and finish the 'First Weekend in May' strong today!


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Yankee Player 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Five Star Sweetie 5-1 WON
Next Best: #9 SCR
Super Add: #1 Morning Magic 5-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-1) Paid $23.20
$1 Trifecta (5-1-8) Paid $53.50


5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Formal Dannie 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Gatorize 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Burke's Sister 9-2 5th
Super Add: #1 No Image 6-1 4th


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #2 High Quail WON
Next Best: #12 Caffeine Free 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Maria's Moon 3rd


7th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Stratos 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #4 Emma's Posse 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 Lookn Mighty Fast 5-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Pound the Rock 8-1 6th


8th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 11f (DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #4 Silver Mountain 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Hidden Glance 5-2 3rd


9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Hi-5 C/O: $252,000

Most Likely: #4 Jolly Ol' Nick 5-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Shot Gun Cliff 6-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Mr. Champ 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Wayfarer 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Steds Pirate 12-1 7th


@$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-5-8
5: 3-4-6
6: 2
7: 2-4-6
8: 4-5
9: 4-5

3x3x1x3x2x2 = 108 x $2 = $216

$2 Pick 6 (5/3/1,2,4,5,6,9,11/4/3/5) Paid $252.60 (5OF6) x 2 = $505.20


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-12
7: 2-4-5-6
8: 4-5
9: 2-3-4-5-6-8

2x4x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

Program Changes for Wednesday, May 6, 2009 (Day 8 of 52)

Last updated: 11:30 a.m. (EDT)

Main Track: MUDDY

Turf Course: OFF the Turf

Post time: 12:45 p.m. EDT


RACE 4 -- PICK 6 BEGINS (CARRYOVER $781,146)

SCRATCH #9 Eye of the Tigress


RACE 5

Jockey Change #5 On Your Knees - Tony Farina



Race 6 - OFF THE TURF - 1 1/16M On the Main Track

SCRATCH #1 Happenstance

SCRATCH #4 Just An Inkling

SCRATCH #5 Transformationlady

SCRATCH #6 Mimi's Kids

SCRATCH #9 Alley Theater

SCRATCH AE #11 Promulgation

AE #12 Caffiene Free will run


Race 7- LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER)

Jockey Change #5 Pound the Rock - Jesus Castanon


Race 8 - OFF THE TURF - 1 3/8M On the Main Track (NO TRIFECTA WAGERING, NO SUPERFECTA WAGERING, NO SHOW WAGERING)

SCRATCH #2 Fifty Five

SCRATCH #6 My Happiness


Race 9 -- SUPER HI-5 (CARRYOVER $251,856)

SCRATCH #7 Painted Forest

keep it going Steve.....

Super High5 try, keying the 6 over the 1,4,9,10

I widened the ticket to $432 and didnt get the feature either.....damn 33K. Good run Steve

good run steve- you're probably feeling the same way i do right now- should have had this one. i missed Mott's 4 on my $80 real ticket.

I missed the Mott horse and the 3 in the second on my $24 ticket. I know, big spender.

Thx guys... I was dreading the feature as pace scenarios with a short field in those events are always screwy.

Great run Steve. I feel your pain, missed it with a different horse. Actually was happy to make some of my weekend loses back.

CD #4 $2 Pick-6 1,5,8,WT,4,6,WT,2,10,WT,4,WT,1,3,5,WT,4,5,6 $ 216.00 $ 505.20 + $ 289

Hi guys, missed this pick 6 with 4 wins and 2 second places. Hit the first 3 legs and the fifth leg, shoulda played a pick 3 too.

As Steve says, "This game will keep you humble"...

Joe