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  #81  
Old 05-12-2007, 04:12 PM
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ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Will confirm after workout.. Monday I think..
Homeboy in the avatar ran nicely today, and I don't mean you..
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  #82  
Old 05-12-2007, 04:27 PM
pgardn
 
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Officer Rocket
Forty Grams
Cobalt Blue
Summer Doldrums
Notional (still hurt, can remember what happened)
Belgravia (ran right a week before the Derby and stunk????)
Drums of Thunder
Xchanger
Bold Start
Unbridled Express
Holy Roman Emperor...

what happened to all these guys?
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  #83  
Old 05-12-2007, 09:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Holy Roman Emperor...
Retired!
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  #84  
Old 05-12-2007, 10:11 PM
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Bobby Fischer Bobby Fischer is offline
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Default Good / Bad

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
1. Street Sense
2. Hard Spun
3. Curlin
4. King of the Roxy
5. Mint Slewlep
6. Xchanger
7. Flying First Class

A. C. P. West*
B. Chelokee*


*Expected but not definite..



As a fan I am pumped. You know that Street Sense will be all out. This race is HUGE for him. Hard Spun is possibly stronger than ever. Curlin should see the race set up for him to unleash his talent. The others add spice particularly King of the Roxy.

As a handicapper, the Preakness will be a tough race. Seven or eight horses is harder than 20. You are going to have to much more fine in your wager than the Derby to make a profit. There are not going to be 4 or 5 big underlays that shouldn't hit the exacta.

Could easily be the big-3 in the Preakness trifecta.
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  #85  
Old 05-13-2007, 08:38 AM
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JDank34 JDank34 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Officer Rocket
Forty Grams
Cobalt Blue
Summer Doldrums
Notional (still hurt, can remember what happened)
Belgravia (ran right a week before the Derby and stunk????)
Drums of Thunder
Xchanger
Bold Start
Unbridled Express
Holy Roman Emperor...

what happened to all these guys?
FG-3rd LS Derby
CB-eating California grapes in wine country
SD-??? maybe being freshened for a summer campaign against lesser comp.
NOT-
BELG-I would guess he is in a nice barn at Ashford on Versailles Rd. already
DoT-Calder
Xc-Preakness bound
BS-pretty competent 1 turn mile type horse
UE-been away a while. I will ask Bernie tomorrow
HRE-???
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  #86  
Old 05-13-2007, 08:43 PM
tycharles01 tycharles01 is offline
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Chelokee unlikely from Preakness


Who is pointed to the Sir Barton??

Chelokee
Starbase
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  #87  
Old 05-14-2007, 07:17 AM
Derby73 Derby73 is offline
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Default Derby

Steve,

A couple days before the Kentucky Derby I printed off a few pages from the DT Forum and in that printing nine Derby Trailers predicted the top 5 or top 10finishers for the race. I threw out ##6-10 and gave a value of 5 points for horses picked to win, 4 for place, 3 for show, 2 for 4th and 1 for 5th and summed the total for each horse. I know it is a ridiculously simple methodology and that the sample size is absurdly small, but somehow there is wisdom in consensus. Check out the results below listed in descending order of consensus pick and showing from left right the consensus prediction, horse, horse's actual finish and difference between consensus prediction and finish in parentheses:

Predicted #1 Street Sense, Finish = Win (off by 0)
#2 Any Given Saturday, 8th (off by 6)
T#3 Hard Spun, Place (off by 1)
T#3 Curlin, Show (0)
#5 Scat Daddy, 18th (13)
#6 Nobiz, 10th (4)
#7 Tiago, 7th (0)
#8 Dominican, 11th (3)
#9 Sam P., 9th (0)
#10 Circular Quay, 6th (4)
#11 Zanjero, 12th (1)

Those were all the horses who received mention among the nine Derby Trailers from whom I had predictions. Street Sense was a strong consensus pick with 37 total points and Any Given Saturday finished second at 19. Curlin and Hard Spun were at 18.

Anyway, I thought that was pretty remarkable predicting for the gang of 9 hitting on 8 of the Top 10 finishers with only imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield not in the mix.

Rick

I'm no genius, or are I? -- Homer Simpson
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  #88  
Old 05-14-2007, 12:02 PM
swedejxn swedejxn is offline
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hard spun ...... street sense will not get to the winner... king of the roxy runs big but cannot hang with the winner...
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  #89  
Old 05-14-2007, 12:09 PM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Default Your ever-evolving Preakness field...

Street Sense
Hard Spun
Curlin
Circular Quay*
King of the Roxy
Mint Slewlep
Xchanger
C. P. West
Flying First Class

*Possible
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  #90  
Old 05-14-2007, 12:15 PM
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declansharbor declansharbor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Curlin
Circular Quay*
King of the Roxy
Mint Slewlep
Xchanger
C. P. West
Flying First Class

*Possible
It would make sense. He should be a fresh horse, coming into the derby off of 8 weeks. Has Pletcher worked him since? If so, how long? That will determine if CQ will go or not...My guess is he goes, as TAP will be trying ever so hard to wipe away that 0-for.
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  #91  
Old 05-14-2007, 12:21 PM
tycharles01 tycharles01 is offline
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If Johnny V makes his move little earlier this time. He could and should hit the board
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  #92  
Old 05-14-2007, 12:36 PM
Derby73 Derby73 is offline
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Wink

Bykster,

Is that your 'ever-evolving field' or your prediction?
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  #93  
Old 05-14-2007, 06:46 PM
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Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by declansharbor
It would make sense. He should be a fresh horse, coming into the derby off of 8 weeks. Has Pletcher worked him since? If so, how long? That will determine if CQ will go or not...My guess is he goes, as TAP will be trying ever so hard to wipe away that 0-for.
CQ just had a 4f work at Belmont today.

Date: May 14, 2007
Track: BELMONT PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 48:44 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 28/105
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  #94  
Old 05-14-2007, 07:00 PM
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31lengths 31lengths is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby73
Steve,

A couple days before the Kentucky Derby I printed off a few pages from the DT Forum and in that printing nine Derby Trailers predicted the top 5 or top 10finishers for the race. I threw out ##6-10 and gave a value of 5 points for horses picked to win, 4 for place, 3 for show, 2 for 4th and 1 for 5th and summed the total for each horse. I know it is a ridiculously simple methodology and that the sample size is absurdly small, but somehow there is wisdom in consensus. Check out the results below listed in descending order of consensus pick and showing from left right the consensus prediction, horse, horse's actual finish and difference between consensus prediction and finish in parentheses:

Predicted #1 Street Sense, Finish = Win (off by 0)
#2 Any Given Saturday, 8th (off by 6)
T#3 Hard Spun, Place (off by 1)
T#3 Curlin, Show (0)
#5 Scat Daddy, 18th (13)
#6 Nobiz, 10th (4)
#7 Tiago, 7th (0)
#8 Dominican, 11th (3)
#9 Sam P., 9th (0)
#10 Circular Quay, 6th (4)
#11 Zanjero, 12th (1)

Those were all the horses who received mention among the nine Derby Trailers from whom I had predictions. Street Sense was a strong consensus pick with 37 total points and Any Given Saturday finished second at 19. Curlin and Hard Spun were at 18.

Anyway, I thought that was pretty remarkable predicting for the gang of 9 hitting on 8 of the Top 10 finishers with only imawildandcrazyguy and Sedgefield not in the mix.

Rick

I'm no genius, or are I? -- Homer Simpson
Thats pretty cool, Rick.
Thanks for sharing.
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  #95  
Old 05-14-2007, 07:37 PM
Zippy Chippy Zippy Chippy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers
You are exactly right, the "tight turns" at Pimlico is a myth. The major difference, obviously, is the difference between the Churchill/Pimlico turns and the far sweeping turns at Belmont. Not that I like him, but I think Jerry Bailey debunked this tight turns theory on the Preakness ESPN broadcast last May.
I've heard this as well-- that the turns at Pimlico are actually the same as at Churchill. However, I heard on ATRAB the other day that while "tight turns" is a myth, there is a definite crown in the track at Pimlico that disadvantages horses in the outside posts. Does anybody know which posts are most affected by this crown?
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  #96  
Old 05-15-2007, 12:02 PM
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lemoncrush lemoncrush is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Street Sense
Hard Spun
Curlin
Circular Quay*
King of the Roxy
Mint Slewlep
Xchanger
C. P. West
Flying First Class

*Possible
Steve, what happened to Trombetta's horse, Street Magician?
I thought he had the Preakness on his agenda?
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  #97  
Old 05-15-2007, 03:37 PM
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Pedigree Ann Pedigree Ann is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pgardn
Xchanger

Holy Roman Emperor...

what happened to all these guys?
Xchanger is going in the Preakness, last I heard.

The HRE story is a strange one. Turns out that Coolmore's newest stallion, the hot-shot miler from last year George Washington, has not been as fertile as they would have liked. (Coolmore pioneered the 200-foal crop - if he needs 2 or 3 covers to stop his mares, it cuts down on the number of stud fees they can collect.). So since HRE has the same sire (Danehill), they retired him to cover the mares who were booked to GW, and have put GW back into training.
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  #98  
Old 05-15-2007, 06:49 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lemoncrush
Steve, what happened to Trombetta's horse, Street Magician?
I thought he had the Preakness on his agenda?

Probably finishing up the track in the Withers derailed those plans.
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  #99  
Old 05-15-2007, 09:25 PM
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31lengths 31lengths is offline
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The draw is Wednesday, right?
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  #100  
Old 05-15-2007, 09:28 PM
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paisjpq paisjpq is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lemoncrush
Steve, what happened to Trombetta's horse, Street Magician?
I thought he had the Preakness on his agenda?
isn't he going in the Sir Barton or whatever it's called now
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