A Bit About Track Bias (Dirt)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The 2 horse getting place in the B.C. Sprint is the biggest sign that the rail was pumped up.The horse can't win the Mike Lee for New York breds,but can run 2nd in the biggest sprint race in the Country? The four consecutive 1 horses winning pales in comparison to this.

1) He didn't debut until a couple weeks before the Mike Lee (and won the 6F NYB championship at 3 anyways... over several graded stakes placed horses)
2) He's a graded stakes winner at 6F in 2006
3) He ran 2nd to Bordanaro in the spring by a length at 6F, and Bordanaro was the 2nd choice in the BC Sprint
4) He missed 2nd in the Forego to War Front by a long nose, and War Front was a top 5 choice in the BC Sprint

Yeah... Friendly Island is total garbage.

He was the biggest overlay in the race.

Da Hoss I wrote an essay a few days before the Breeders Cup essentially saying that Butch would have a hard time keeping the rail from being the place to be, but could not locate it as it was under someone elses thread. With that said, I do not think the percieved rail bias was anything more than; it is always good to save ground. Ragozin has an excellent assessment on his bulletin board.

BTR I do have an agenda. I post my pick 4's with the idea of getting newer cappers interested in "investing" $20 -$30 a week with the goal of hitting a pick 4 paying fifty, sixty or even one hundred times their bet! Additionally I try to learn all I can. Even though I am in the top 1 or 2% in handicapping acumen (as are a few others, this forum) I am shocked at what I do not know! Some swindle!

You wrote "that one thing I know for sure is that no one can play a miniscule ticket once a week and be a consistent winner" indicates to me that YOU cannot be a consistent winner. Several members this forum play a pick 4 once a week and over the long haul win. I have asked them to keep their ROI for just those bets.

I am not into country club camraderie and try not to post unless I have something to say, or a ticket to post. I usually post my Sunday ticket on the forum where the race is being run, sorry if that disturbs you. In the interest of full disclosure I expect if I get time, I will post a ticket here tommorrow, and like my chances. I have played three pick 4's in 2007; a $12 bet that returned $1900, a $24 miss and a $36 miss. They are at www.nola.com/forums/startinggate #'s 7629 and 7659 and this forum #8700 I have never seen a before the race prediction from you and can only conclude you are a monday morning quarterback.

STS: I buy charts in bulk and find most handicappers have the same data! I am finding good value in Beyer par times taken from the past performances. For instance most winners run a good number for the class... but of the horses they beat, how many had run par? How recently? etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

Are you saying I'm a " Monday morning quarterback ".

I hope not. That would be even funnier than the rest of your silliness.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

This is usually after he has thrown in a shot or two of his own. Guy came on here and starting throwing haymakers at some of the nicer people on here mocking their selections. Then after the fact plays dumb like he didn't know what he was doing. It's all too convenient. I truly hope his boasts are real, there is enough money out there to go around. But come on, there does seem to be a great deal of BS going around.

Okay. I guess I missed where he took shots at others' picks. I shall review. Also, didn't mean to imply that you don't sometimes need high boots to wade through some of the claims that are made, just don't think BBB is trying to sell a scam. If boasting it is, there are a lot more pedestrian reasons for doing so.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

1) He didn't debut until a couple weeks before the Mike Lee (and won the 6F NYB championship at 3 anyways... over several graded stakes placed horses)
2) He's a graded stakes winner at 6F in 2006
3) He ran 2nd to Bordanaro in the spring by a length at 6F, and Bordanaro was the 2nd choice in the BC Sprint
4) He missed 2nd in the Forego to War Front by a long nose, and War Front was a top 5 choice in the BC Sprint

Yeah... Friendly Island is total garbage.

He was the biggest overlay in the race.

I repeat... Friendly Island is total garbage.
Probably the only Pletcher horse I actually like.

[Gander]

I think Friendly Island is going to have a huge year. He didnt look all that great yesterday, his action in the stretch was a bit weird, I dont think he switched leads at all, but it was clearly a prep for Dubai.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Gander

I think Friendly Island is going to have a huge year. He didnt look all that great yesterday, his action in the stretch was a bit weird, I dont think he switched leads at all, but it was clearly a prep for Dubai.

He's an easy horse to root for. Feisty sonofagun though. I visited his stall at Saratoga the day after the Forego and he almost bit my hand off when I gave him a peppermint. How many quality non-geldings are running (happy, healthy, and well) at 6 these days?? Hopefully he has a huge year.

[Gander]

This horse used to have amazing speed from the gate and I think the fact that they figured out how to rate him was the best thing that ever happened to him. Hes all heart and been in some terriffic finishes.

The Dubai Sprint (easily in my top 5 races) is shaping up to be great.