My Bets for Belmont.......Please Help

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by pick4

$300 is nothing to sneeze at. Why do you propose making a wagers that you posted without having the courage of your convictions?

I'm too new at this to have courage of my convictions when it comes to betting. All I know is I am up almost 540.00 from the first two TC races by betting BB. So even if I lost all 300.00 which I doubt, I'm still up for the year and money left over for the BCC. Obviously I would love to win more $$$

So now after most posters advice, I plan to back off and play some BB Exactas, one trifecta and possibly an across the board.

[hockey2315]

With Casino Drive out the race is pretty much unplayable - save your money.

[Danzig]

i don't understand why casino drive got so much attention to begin with. and i don't think he is/was the only horse that could give big brown a fit today. by the same token, i don't see why big brown couldn't have defeated him by the same distance he's been beating his other 'competition'.

obviously if big brown runs his race, and the others who have faced him previously don't step up, it's a done deal. but they still have to run the thing....

smarty also won his derby and preakness (and the arkansas derby) in convincing fashion. that counted for nothing on belmont day. the same may happen today. or big brown might become #12.

i just threw up in my mouth a little.

[RollerDoc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't understand why casino drive got so much attention to begin with. and i don't think he is/was the only horse that could give big brown a fit today. by the same token, i don't see why big brown couldn't have defeated him by the same distance he's been beating his other 'competition'.

obviously if big brown runs his race, and the others who have faced him previously don't step up, it's a done deal. but they still have to run the thing....

smarty also won his derby and preakness (and the arkansas derby) in convincing fashion. that counted for nothing on belmont day. the same may happen today. or big brown might become #12.

i just threw up in my mouth a little.

You bring up an interesting topic that I didn't want to start a new thread with.

In comparing Smarty Jones to Big Brown, I'm not talking about talent wise, but going into The Belmont in 2004 as compared to today. I think Big Brown is a better bet today than Smarty was. For one, Big Brown's competitors seem to be less of a field than Smarty's. Although i like Denis Of Cork too.

I truly feel the fact that Kent D having gone through his mistake of 10 years ago missing the triple crown, he has learned heavily from that. Plus in this particular race, I like him starting from the 1 post which will make it a tad easier for the all important early break. I'd love to see Big Brown sit back in this Belmont just Like Alex did in 2005 and then turned it on when the others are pooped out.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by RollerDoc

Well based on those responses, and as much as I hate to do it, I guess I won't bet Big Brown to Win. As Wyatt Earp said to Johnny Ringo in the movie Tombstone, "There's no money in it."

Maybe just Exactas and Trifectas? Is that a better strategy? I hate the fact that CD is somewhat injured and makes it hard to factor him.

I'm only jumping in here because I'm also one to throw out normal (reasonable) betting strategies on a big race with alot of $$ action. I've posted before, that I just budget some fun $$ for some "lottery ticket" style bets that have a chance of hitting some big bucks. I save my serious playing for other days. I hit the OTB with my fun bet on race day, then come home to fire up the grill, crack some cold beer or wine, and enjoy the race festivities from the comfort of my patio or sports viewing room.

If I collect something great, and if not I've still been entertained with only budgeted damage done.

At this point, I'm inclined to wager what I think will now be $168 on the race.

I'm gonna pick two horses to go along with Big Brown, and then box the three of them in superfectas for $1.

That way there are still scenarios I can be happy as a bettor if Big Brown wins, and I still have some high scoring angles should he run somewhere in the Top 4.

Not an advised strategy of course, but it seems to fit my needs well for this one....