Puzzling Kentucky Derby Picture

[Kasept]

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

Good point. They got cute and it could backfire.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

But doesn't some of that have to do with the point system and its Grossly overweighting of late Derby Preps. In my opinion they need to weight by Grade and start with Breeders cup Juvenile. A Grade 1 Win in the Juvenile should be the same as A Grade 1 Win in March. For the most part we have had lower field sizes until late Feb and some very large ones after.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

A Grade 1 Win in the Juvenile should be the same as A Grade 1 Win in March.

I could not disagree more.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I could not disagree more.

Horses that have run in the top four in the BC have done quite well in the derby

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Horses that have run in the top four in the BC have done quite well in the derby

No doubt, they have had a nice run of success.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Horses that have run in the top four in the BC have done quite well in the derby

and this affects Cairo Prince's issue? Where did he finish in that race?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I could not disagree more.

Usually when someone makes such a statement as you have they would provide a scintilla of reasoning why they feel that way. Sorry if I have such high expectations.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

Usually when someone makes such a statement as you have they would provide a scintilla of reasoning why they feel that way. Sorry if I have such high expectations.

No problem on your expectations.

1. Many horses are much different animals in May than November. Much more so than the difference between March and May anyways. IC's point(though sarcastic) about how poorly the top 4 finishers from the BCJ do in the Derby is spot on.

2. Horses getting enough points in the BCJ to already get into the Derby will promote connections to go with even less preps than they do now IMO.

3. The quality of horses you have to beat in a March prep is much better than a November G1, which also makes them more significant.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cakes44

No problem on your expectations.

1. Many horses are much different animals in May than November. Much more so than the difference between March and May anyways. IC's point(though sarcastic) about how poorly the top 4 finishers from the BCJ do in the Derby is spot on.

2. Horses getting enough points in the BCJ to already get into the Derby will promote connections to go with even less preps than they do now IMO.

3. The quality of horses you have to beat in a March prep is much better than a November G1, which also makes them more significant.

I pretty much ignore IC as I have never seen him post a real bet. Yadda Yadda Yadda but never see him in the selections thread. Where you and I disagree is that I see the current system as encouraging less preps since the real preps don't start until mid Feb. i think they can structure the system where a G1 or G2 win would be nearly automatic but a G3 not. As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jms62

I pretty much ignore IC as I have never seen him post a real bet. Yadda Yadda Yadda but never see him in the selections thread. Where you and I disagree is that I see the current system as encouraging less preps since the real preps don't start until mid Feb. i think they can structure the system where a G1 or G2 win would be nearly automatic but a G3 not. As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

That's ok.

As I've never seen you post anything interesting, or even something insightful, I feel the same way towards you.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by jms62

As horse playerI want to see a meaningful prep schedule to look forward to from Breeders cup to Derby.

Me and you are on the same page there. The old system was broke because horses that finished 2nd in either the BCJ or Delta Jackpot were already in the KD, no matter what they did afterward. However, the new system doesn't seem to be doing any better in terms of making horses run as 3-year-olds, which I thought was kind of the goal of it.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by jms62

But doesn't some of that have to do with the point system and its Grossly overweighting of late Derby Preps. In my opinion they need to weight by Grade and start with Breeders cup Juvenile. A Grade 1 Win in the Juvenile should be the same as A Grade 1 Win in March. For the most part we have had lower field sizes until late Feb and some very large ones after.

you need to run in order to get points...lighting up the clocks in the am for months doesn't do you any good earning your way into the gate and that's exactly what they tried doing with Cairo prince

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

[pmayjr]

the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-

Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins).

Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

the crazy thing about Cairo Prince, is IF he makes the field-

Say he took care of business yesterday, he'd probably be the luke-warm favorite for the Derby (CC, Samraat or Social I could maybe add their names to that with wins).

Now Cairo will be 2nd off the shelf. How flat he was yesterday was a little concerning. But! Now he has value if you think he'll be much more fit 2nd-off. Unless he becomes the Derby Wise-guy horse (which he might), seriously I think 15-1 is very realistic on him now. He left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths yesterday, and with how wide-open the field is, the odds will be spread out enough that you might get that price. At anything over 10-1 do you guys give him a chance?

IF he gets in, I think you get every bit of 15-1.

[pmayjr]

just when you guys didn't think you could roll your eyes at the stuff I post on here anymore, this one will test that-

So Godolphin owns most of Cairo now-
The theme at the Dubai Carnival the past few months is these really talented graded/group stakes-placed horses that run really long distances 1st off very long layoffs (some as long as a year off)... and most of the time they're flat and not the most fit. But 2nd-off the layoff they wake up. And, that's pretty much the case anywhere, I get that.

I'm not saying that this was the plan. They obviously wanna get in the Derby, and they might've royally messed that up deciding to skip the FoY. But if he gets in, I don't think he'll flatten out as badly. Not only that, we're all speculating a hot pace. Yesterday Wildcat Red had it pretty easy up front. Just saying there are a lot of arguments for major improvement IF he makes it, and now you'll get the odds to back up those arguments.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

Yup, run your damn horses, they gambled and lost.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gus.. If Cairo Prince doesn't get in the Derby, it's not an indictment of the point system, it's an indictment of the way he's been campaigned.

I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.


It might not just be a plan that backfired. Maybe he really needed that time off. Did he lose weight off the last race? The thing is if he does need time off between races to that degree (and this wasn't just a one time thing where they were trying to get strategic), he's got no business going in the Derby. If you win, you feel bound to go to the Preakness and maybe that's not the best thing for the horse. Aim for things like the Preakness or Haskell.

I'm kinda bummed about Spot's finish. I wanted me some Zito in the Derby, plus the PR for a horse named Spot is kinda great.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I'm curious to know the graded stakes earnings chart and how it compares to the points system. Who'd be in one way but not in the other, for instance.

I believe there are 11 horses that would be in with old system that are currently out with new system

current cut off 20 points.....

horses with more than 140k graded earnings but under 20 points.

Ride on Curlin
Tamarando
Strong Mandate
Rise Up
Giovanni Boldini
Candy Boy
In Trouble
Noble Moon
Conquest Titan
Dance With Fate
Casiguapo