Gallup: Romney 52% Obama 45%

[joeydb]

The election's not here yet, so would never assume one side or the other is "done".

However, it is supposedly unprecedented that a candidate with an over 50% score in the Gallup poll with less than 3 weeks to go (when the poll was first taken) would lose. That does not of course mean that it can't happen. But it has not happened yet.

What no one knows is how fast or slow a poll can rise or fall. Hundreds of millions of voters making individual decisions are of course independent from each other. But treated as a population and evaluated with correlative statistics, it is apparently unlikely that the poll would change that fast.