Beyer Speed Figure Question

[craiger1313]

I was looking for advice in regards to beyer speed figure. If a horse runs a higher beyer speed figure in a lesser race does that have to be taken in consideration when he jumps up to a higher level or supposedly better quality of horse who run lesser beyers.

Hope this make sense and thanks to anyone who can help

[robfla]

I "think" I understand your question.

I believe a horse can run a higher figure against lower competition due to having race / pace factors in his favor. Also, was the track sloppy? sealed?

When a cheap horse jumps up and runs a big figure against cheap horses, he wont necessarily translate that to better competition.

PLUS, you have to factor in the age of the horse. Is he a young horse maturing? or an older horse with proven past running lines.

[slotdirt]

I'm going to go ahead and say that he's talking about Paynter.

[craiger1313]

I'm not referring to the Belmont Stakes. For example horse runs a Beyer in a maiden non winners of 1 of 73 and now jumps to maiden special weight or allowance and is running against horses that are running in the mid 60's.

Does the horse that ran the 73 become a strong play because his beyer is 6-8 points higher.

Thanks for feedback

[slotdirt]

I think we need a condition book 101 here first.

[Powderfinger]

Originally Posted by craiger1313

I'm not referring to the Belmont Stakes. For example horse runs a Beyer in a maiden non winners of 1 of 73 and now jumps to maiden special weight or allowance and is running against horses that are running in the mid 60's.

Does the horse that ran the 73 become a strong play because his beyer is 6-8 points higher.

Thanks for feedback

In answer to your last question, according to DRF ,Yes, that horse becomes a stronger play because of the higher beyer. The beyer takes into account all conditions, surfaces, distance, class, speed, etc. ( I don't think breeding or trainer) and puts them into this magic formula and out pops a number that can be used to compare runners from different races no matter the surface, length, class,condition, competition.
It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments.
Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.

[craiger1313]

Thank you for the response.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Powderfinger

In answer to your last question, according to DRF ,Yes, that horse becomes a stronger play because of the higher beyer. The beyer takes into account all conditions, surfaces, distance, class, speed, etc. ( I don't think breeding or trainer) and puts them into this magic formula and out pops a number that can be used to compare runners from different races no matter the surface, length, class,condition, competition.
It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments.
Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.

A lot of misinformation here.

[Travis Stone]

I'll bite...

Theoretically yes. But the one thing - and I think most on here would agree with - is the abstract role that "class" plays. It's impossible to truly quantify class. Beyer speed figures (and other similar, well-designed figures) do the best job out there, however, at capturing the overall ability of a race horse.

But horses with inferior figures, who are dropping in class, seem to improve enough as a result of the class drop (or other factors, such as the pace of the race) to support the idea that class plays a role. Perhaps this part illusion, or hogwash... but I think if all else was equal, and two horses had the same figures but one was earned against tougher horses, I would take the class dropper over the other almost always.

That said, maybe someone else can explain this better...

[Powderfinger]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

A lot of misinformation here.

Like what? And this isn't twitter , you can speak in complete sentences.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Powderfinger

Like what? And this isn't twitter , you can speak in complete sentences.

Originally Posted by Powderfinger

In answer to your last question, according to DRF ,Yes, that horse becomes a stronger play because of the higher beyer. The beyer takes into account all conditions, surfaces, distance, class, speed, etc. ( I don't think breeding or trainer) and puts them into this magic formula and out pops a number that can be used to compare runners from different races no matter the surface, length, class,condition, competition.
It's whole purpose in the first place was to serve as a measure to compare efforts from different environments.
Now, does it actually work like that? Well, no. The beyer is just another piece of information handicappers use to analyze a race. It's is essentially someone's opinion, like the ML odds. In reality it's impossible to compare a 5F dirt sprint to a 12F turf race using a single number.

Those two sentences, for starters.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by craiger1313

I was looking for advice in regards to beyer speed figure. If a horse runs a higher beyer speed figure in a lesser race does that have to be taken in consideration when he jumps up to a higher level or supposedly better quality of horse who run lesser beyers.

Yes, it has to be taken into consideration. The beyer system is a good tool to aid in handicapping a race, but there are other as important factors that must be considered.

I would assume that the ROI for someone who simply bet the best last out Beyer every race would be pretty low.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by pba1817

I would assume that the ROI for someone who simply bet the best last out Beyer every race would be pretty low.

It's way better than you think.

The ROI is $1.85 for top last out Beyer figures.

Win takeout is typically about 16%...so a $1.68 ROI would be average.

Obviously, anyone who just blindly picks up a form and bets the highest last out number is a fool. You're going to lose 7.5% of every dollar you bet doing that and you might as well as pull a lever on a slot machine for the same rake because you'll at least have a slim chance at rare jackpot opportunities.

[pba1817]

That is a lot higher than I would have thought, thanks for the info.