Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The extremely profitable success of a last-out top figure horses in the Derby is skewed because of War Emblem and Charismatic...both were big upset winners of super-fast run minor preps in their final Derby start.

War Emblem freaked in the Illi Derby and Charismatic freaked in the Lexington...both were ignored in the Derby betting because they looked like one-race wonders and because the one big race was in a minor Derby prep.

Oh I get that, but even if you throw them both out, it's profitable. Throw one out and you more than double your money. Just making the point that in the toughest race in the world to handicap, don't forget to use the tool many experienced handicappers are dismissing as being an overused factor. If you are forced to bet Sinister Minister, Devil May Care, and Rockamundo, you get to include the War Emblem's and Charismatic.

Disregarding odds, you have a wildly positive impact value. Without taking the time to look it up, we're probably talking 350 starters and 20 winners. 23 top Beyers gets 6 wins. The other 325+ get 14 wins.

Now the downside is only one of the last 10, and that was the shortest priced one of the set.