How much is too much?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

However, a public handicapper's ROI is a terribly unfair way to measure their handicapping acumen, as their picks must be in well in advance ( I rarely send mine in later than 48 hours before raceday ) and thus they can't make adjustments for value. A perfect example would be yesterday's 1st race at Aqueduct. I picked the race 1-2, but when the 2 was, what I felt was, a big overlay at over 4:1, I bet him to win ( I also Tweeted about this before the race ). My ROI reflects a loser, and according to what you wrote it theoretically shouldn't....but it does.

The bottom line is that, for the most part, 1-2-3 picks are for people that don't really want to hear the handicapping discussion, or the haters that are happy that no puiblic handicapper can realistically show a positive ROI over time ( though, I have been disproving that, miraculously, for a while ). We don't even really want to offer them at NYRA, as we feel they detract from what we are trying to do, which is engage people in the handicapping discussion, which inevitably will create many more fans than 1-2-3 picks, but too many people want them for us to not give them out.

I think you're saying that there is very little value in betting anyone's 1-2-3 picks when they have to be submitted days before a race, and I certainly agree with that. One way to mitigate that would be to list the odds at which a pick would be attractive. If I post a pick, I always list a minimum odds requirement and often include a track condition requirement. But I get it that the people who insist on having 1-2-3 picks probably don't want to have to think any harder than that.

A public handicapper has an additional disadvantage in that if he/she has some success and develops a following, prices on any future selections that DO come in will be depressed by the additional bets, hurting the ROI.

I'm also not saying a good ROI is proof of a capper's skills. One lucky longshot can make a poor capper look good over a pretty large number of races.* I am saying that in general, ROI is a much better measure of a capper's skill than percentage of winners.

--Dunbar

*If I'm calculating ROI to evaluate trainers or jockeys or capping angles or whatever, I use a method that dampens out the effect of the longshot winner. It gives substantially more meaningful results than a flat bet ROI.