5/25: Belmont Park ($43k C/O)

[hockey2315]

I didn't bet the race, but how was she a horrible 3-1 shot? She was the third choice in a field of six and the only runner w/ any room for improvement. . . If it's a field size complaint, though, I can see that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I didn't bet the race, but how was she a horrible 3-1 shot? She was the third choice in a field of six and the only runner w/ any room for improvement. . . If it's a field size complaint, though, I can see that.

The field she beat in her maiden race was atrocious, she had a major figure disadvantage and she was cutting back in distance off a long layoff. If it were anybody but McLaughlin/Darley, the horse would've been 10-1 and run like it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The field she beat in her maiden race was atrocious, she had a major figure disadvantage and she was cutting back in distance off a long layoff. If it were anybody but McLaughlin/Darley, the horse would've been 10-1 and run like it.

*like

[Dahoss]

Going to try Green Bluff here.

[Dahoss]

Is the rail out far enough?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The field she beat in her maiden race was atrocious, she had a major figure disadvantage and she was cutting back in distance off a long layoff. If it were anybody but McLaughlin/Darley, the horse would've been 10-1 and run like it.

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now. It's 8 months later and she was a 2-1 second choice. Not sure why there's such a mystery as to expectations that she run well.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now.

Jermaine was always my favorite Jackson... Just sayin.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now. It's 8 months later and she was a 2-1 second choice. Not sure why there's such a mystery as to expectations that she run well.

Really? I think the field she faced mattered quite a bit given what an unknown quantity she was off the bench. It was explained in detail by Andy and Jason that McLaughlin is not that great off of these types of layoffs and the MSW field she had faced was particularly bad.

That being said, she actually went off a bigger price than I thought she would. I didn't bet the race but she had a perfect trip against a field that was far softer than the average N1X of any type this time of year.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The field she faced as a 2yo isn't remotely germane now. It's 8 months later and she was a 2-1 second choice. Not sure why there's such a mystery as to expectations that she run well.

You're right, we should just assume that every McLaughlin returnee is going to run off the page regardless of past performance.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You're right, we should just assume that every McLaughlin returnee is going to run off the page regardless of past performance.

The past performances are from 8 months ago when she was a 2yo... Obviously there was an issue that she only is getting back to the races now, and the improvement from 2 to 3 is typically pretty big. She was a $500,000 yearling by Distorted Humor out of a full sister to Anees. It's a big surprise that she may have actual talent?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The past performances are from 8 months ago when she was a 2yo... Obviously there was an issue that she only is getting back to the races now, and the improvement from 2 to 3 is typically pretty big. She was a $500,000 yearling by Distorted Humor out of a full sister to Anees. It's a big surprise that she may have actual talent?

Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.

[MISTERGEE]

Mclaughlin is 4 for 14 off layoffs the last yr at Belmont with a Plus 52% ROI

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Right, because we've never seen Darley blow a ton of money on well-bred horses who can't run before. The point is that the horse was unbettable at 3-1, so you either have to pass the race or play against her and cross your fingers that she's not going to jump into a new stratosphere first time back.

She's a Shadwell purchase, and you know their use of money is consistenty more judicious. I didn't bet the race other than use her (and others) in the P3's & P4, but Eric Donovan pointed in the right direction making her the second choice. I just can't see why you're making out like this was some stunning putover. She won by a couple lengths in 1:10.1. Likely a low/mid 80's Beyer, in line with natural development from 2 to 3. What's so shocking after she left the scene at 2 breaking her maiden with a 75?

[Dahoss]

Belmont 6th
.50 late 4
1,3/ 1,3,12/ 2,5/ 2,4,8

$40 win 3

[Dahoss]

I think you guys are all sort of right. Yes, she did improve and based on Kiaran's numbers coming back and the field she beat last time was tough to bet.

But, she didn't exactly have to beat much in the race and didn't run that well. It's not like the 2-3 finishers are very good and she was able to get a perfect trip off the other contenders who dueled. Not a playable horse IMO, but also not totally out of the ordinary either.