Hypothetical Derby Trainer Prop Bet

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He would seem like a pretty safe bet to make the race. I don't think his Gotham performance was any worse than Super Saver's Tampa Bay Derby return. He'll be ok with any race shape as well.

Basically - he's a safe bet to get in - there will atleast be several others more hopeless than him - he might impove 2nd and 3rd off the layoff ... but 50/1 because he's simply not that good.

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're probably right.

He seems hopeless to me but I guess 50:1 is fair.

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

Backtalk was 20-1 last year. You guys are not seeing this as clearly as you see most things.

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

No, actually it's you that has no idea what he's talking about.

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by justindew

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

It best represents the odds in which I'd have no interest taking either side on - in an exchange.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

So you are saying that 5/2 represents the actual odds that should be offered on Pletcher to win the Derby this year?

Pretty much.

As DrugS said, it's the price I have no interest in betting.

If I could have booked Backtalk at 20:1, or even 30:1, it was free money. I bet he was offered MUCH higher on exchanges with nobody biting. That is the Giacomo Factor.