Breeders Cup betting??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Oh great. . . you're back.

These threads are so worthless every time someone starts one. I have no idea how this guy should bet the Breeders' Cup. All I can tell him is how I would bet it, but the way I bet it is based on the types of opinions that I formulate on my own. Saying that pk3s are good bets if the guy's opinion is that some longshot can get in the tri or whatever isn't going to do him any good.

Look at the two posts before this - one praising the pk3 and one condemning it. They're both right, or both wrong. It's a good bet for some people, or for some opinions, but not others.

No bet is better or worse than another without considering what is being bet. The tri is not inherently better or worse than the Pk3 when you don't know what numbers are going to fill either one.

The win/place thing was just a shot at PG, who fails to understand why betting win/place is terrible despite my many attempts to explain it to him.

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.