Why Won't Quality Road Win The Classic?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

For someone who admits to a horrible cold streak, mostly because of bad opinions this is a bit bold. Lets be realistic. Another neck and he is the 3-1 or less, SECOND CHOICE. Now he gets gunned down by Blame, and hes going to be at least 5 or 6-1.

I just noticed this comment. First off, my coldest opinions are better than your best. . . Anyways - I was being self deprecating in that post so as not to look overly douchey when essentially redboarding.

Let's be realistic? Have you ever been realistic?

It's not about the neck loss to Blame. It's about the fact that he couldn't win there with an easy lead, and that he came back to lumber home against a field that would make even John Shireffs blush. It's about the fact that a supposedly healthy horse--who has never been particularly sound in his life--is being trained up to a race that's at a distance beyond what is optimal for him (the 100% QR at Gulfstream would have no problem with the distance) against a field that will have more speed in it than when he spit the bit in the Whitney. If you think a three point odds jump from what he probably was pre-Whitney (he might be higher if people wise up) and what he'll be now after all that has happened is a fair price, by all means go ahead and bet. I'm a self proclaimed Zenyatta hater, but I'd take 2-1 on her before I'd take 8-1 on him.

Blame coming up empty next out doesn't exactly bode well for him. Maybe none of them will win, or First Dude will finally find a field he can beat.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I just noticed this comment. First off, my coldest opinions are better than your best. . . Anyways - I was being self deprecating in that post so as not to look overly douchey when essentially redboarding.

Let's be realistic? Have you ever been realistic?

It's not about the neck loss to Blame. It's about the fact that he couldn't win there with an easy lead, and that he came back to lumber home against a field that would make even John Shireffs blush. It's about the fact that a supposedly healthy horse--who has never been particularly sound in his life--is being trained up to a race that's at a distance beyond what is optimal for him (the 100% QR at Gulfstream would have no problem with the distance) against a field that will have more speed in it than when he spit the bit in the Whitney. If you think a three point odds jump from what he probably was pre-Whitney (he might be higher if people wise up) and what he'll be now after all that has happened is a fair price, by all means go ahead and bet. I'm a self proclaimed Zenyatta hater, but I'd take 2-1 on her before I'd take 8-1 on him. So I guess that head loss i

Blame coming up empty next out doesn't exactly bode well for him. Maybe none of them will win, or First Dude will finally find a field he can beat.

Blah Blah Blah.... Your best opinion is about the same as mine, we both know that. The shots at my opinion are OLD. I only said anything about your opinion because you made the comment to me about 2 weeks ago, then again on the board....Your QR bashing is so confident, I just thought I would remind you... Not intended to start anything, I think you know I respect your opinion. Blame came up empty, Hmmm.... Well QR next out still ran a beyer better then half the field. So whats it really mean? He wont be 8-1, NO WAY. So I guess that head loss is the difference in him being co chalk and in your words 8-1. A head, thats it, he holds on he is coming in 5-5 the flashy speedy Pletcher. Now hes 8-1?

[Travis Stone]

There are zero scenarios given the field right now where I think Quality Road can win, especially at anything close to single digits... and I'm a fan of the horse and his performances throughout his career.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

There are zero scenarios given the field right now where I think Quality Road can win, especially at anything close to single digits... and I'm a fan of the horse and his performances throughout his career.

What about jocks on other horses letting QR get loose on the lead?

Not that I think QR will win, but hey, I've seen those jocks do some pretty stupid things.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

What about jocks on other horses letting QR get loose on the lead?

Not that I think QR will win, but hey, I've seen those jocks do some pretty stupid things.

.....thats what they should try. get the lead right out of there.....use the horses best asset,his natural speed.

[Thunder Gulch]

He is the fastest horse in the race. Everyone questions the last 1/8th and that may indeed prove to be his undoing, but I give him a big shot.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

He is the fastest horse in the race. Everyone questions the last 1/8th and that may indeed prove to be his undoing, but I give him a big shot.

i agree, the last 50 yards could be it...but he could find himself with slow fractions and get brave. speed is always a threat, haynesfield just proved it. but, i don't agree with the original thread. what are looking at lucky's issues????? he wins too much???? don't get it, i think LAL will be overlooked a little. hes pretty much the only 3 yo that belongs with these unless a foreign entity arrives.

[2Hot4TV]

So you dont think that the weights will make a differance going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt?

Qr will carry 126
LAL will carry 122
Z will carry 123

Quality Road has a problem with giving the 3yo LAL 4 lbs and Zenyatta gets 3lbs.

QR just might be off the board.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

So you dont think that the weights will make a differance going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt?

Qr will carry 126
LAL will carry 122
Z will carry 123

Quality Road has a problem with giving the 3yo LAL 4 lbs and Zenyatta gets 3lbs.

QR just might be off the board.

If Quality Road loses I'm confident it will have next to nothing to do with weight.

[Princess Doreen]

I think it's between Zenyatta and Looking at Lucky.

[Thunder Gulch]

Fastest Horse in the Race

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

What about jocks on other horses letting QR get loose on the lead?

Not that I think QR will win, but hey, I've seen those jocks do some pretty stupid things.

Definitely a possbility, always is. I don't think I see it here though. Who is going to let Quality Road loose out there?

Based on Steve's list, here are horses with early speed and/or pressing speed...

Espoir City
Etched
First Dude
Haynesfield
Morning Line
Quality Road

... even if one or to stumble/defect, there's still plenty of gas.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Definitely a possbility, always is. I don't think I see it here though. Who is going to let Quality Road loose out there?

Based on Steve's list, here are horses with early speed and/or pressing speed...

Espoir City
Etched
First Dude
Haynesfield
Morning Line
Quality Road

... even if one or to stumble/defect, there's still plenty of gas.

I don't think a fast pace will bother Quality Road ...in fact, a fast pace might bother Zenyatta a lot more than QR as counter intuitve as that sounds.

Here is what I mean ... these are two very fast paced races...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxfpmHO2_Hc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34G-d...eature=related

Zenyatta absolutely crawled home over a surface notorious for lightening fast come home times the one and only time in her life when she faced a very fast pace.

Temple City is an example of what can happen when a synthetic router moves to dirt and sees a brutally fast pace.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't think a fast pace will bother Quality Road ...in fact, a fast pace might bother Zenyatta a lot more than QR as counter intuitve as that sounds.

Here is what I mean ... these are two very fast paced races...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxfpmHO2_Hc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34G-d...eature=related

Zenyatta absolutely crawled home over a surface notorious for lightening fast come home times the one and only time in her life when she faced a very fast pace.

Temple City is an example of what can happen when a synthetic router moves to dirt and sees a brutally fast pace.

They should've taken Zenyatta down in that one.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't think a fast pace will bother Quality Road ...in fact, a fast pace might bother Zenyatta a lot more than QR as counter intuitve as that sounds.

Here is what I mean ... these are two very fast paced races...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxfpmHO2_Hc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34G-d...eature=related

Zenyatta absolutely crawled home over a surface notorious for lightening fast come home times the one and only time in her life when she faced a very fast pace.

Temple City is an example of what can happen when a synthetic router moves to dirt and sees a brutally fast pace.

Race1: Comparing the surface and field in November to what Quality Road faced in the Donn is apples and oranges. A conveyor belt strip with Past The Point and Kiss the Kid et al. vs. what he'll face at the top of the stretch, on a track that will be deeper than Gulfstream on a fall evening where wind may be in his face with the likes of Blame, Zenyatta and Lookin at Lucky coming at him.

Race 2: Zenyatta's Vanity in 2008 was only her 6th start, in very humid conditions. She washed out badly and was never comfortable in the paddock. Even with that, she moved earlier than in any other start to that point and sustained her run for over a half mile in what was arguably her worst (not closest) race.