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Why Won't Quality Road Win The Classic?
i started looking at stuff today for the classic and so based upon quick analysis i like quality road...not sold on zenyatta (if you disagree take it to ya zenyatta thread) lookin at lucky has issues, rail trip has issues...lots of question marks out there....quality road seems like hes gonna be healthy, run his race and hit the wire first...at favorable odds...i expect 6/1-8/1 ballpark
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Yep and well pickeled to boot
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Better be concrete.
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blame beat him at 1 1/8th, i don't see a different result when it's longer and they're talking about building QR's stamina.
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Not if he goes psycho at the gate.
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I don't think we can tell until we see the final entries, post position draw, and quite possibly even how the track is playing. There was an inside bias at CD a few years ago that impacted the results.
I think it's fair to say that 10F is unlikely to be his optimal distance and the typical BC field will be so loaded with quality speed/pressers that QR is going to find himself in deep waters in the last furlong. However, he wasn't so abysmal at 10F last year to think he couldn't win if the race comes up weaker than expected or he makes the lead easier than expected on a track that's carrying speed. He was a short and rushed horse for the Travers, but carried his speed a little better the next time despite losing to Summer Bird who was an excellent and peaking rival at the time. In addition, horses without the stamina to get 10f as 3YOs sometimes develop it as 4YOs. Finally, in his loss to Blame this year I think there is some evidence that the rail was not the best place to be that day. It wasn't until Blame swung out that he wore down QR late while QR was still inside. Personally, I'm probably going to play against him at the probable odds and likely pace scenario, but I don't hate him as much as some people. |
Him not being around is helping everyone forget how bad QR's Woodward was. He stalked the pace then had quite the laborious finish while pulling away from a group that included 3 horses who have been absolutely pummeled in their next start.
He's going to be an underlay in the BCC and horses like Morning Line, First Dude, Haynesfield, Espoir City (while not having serious win chances) are going to make his job a lot tougher. |
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Quality Road isn't the same horse that he once was. He could've been really, really good, but they've never been able to keep him 100% healthy. He won't be a factor.
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Let's be realistic? Have you ever been realistic? It's not about the neck loss to Blame. It's about the fact that he couldn't win there with an easy lead, and that he came back to lumber home against a field that would make even John Shireffs blush. It's about the fact that a supposedly healthy horse--who has never been particularly sound in his life--is being trained up to a race that's at a distance beyond what is optimal for him (the 100% QR at Gulfstream would have no problem with the distance) against a field that will have more speed in it than when he spit the bit in the Whitney. If you think a three point odds jump from what he probably was pre-Whitney (he might be higher if people wise up) and what he'll be now after all that has happened is a fair price, by all means go ahead and bet. I'm a self proclaimed Zenyatta hater, but I'd take 2-1 on her before I'd take 8-1 on him. Blame coming up empty next out doesn't exactly bode well for him. Maybe none of them will win, or First Dude will finally find a field he can beat. |
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There are zero scenarios given the field right now where I think Quality Road can win, especially at anything close to single digits... and I'm a fan of the horse and his performances throughout his career.
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Not that I think QR will win, but hey, I've seen those jocks do some pretty stupid things. |
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