Monmouth Handle Doubles!

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

Really?!?
This is about as poor a statement as I've ever heard, especially coming from someone who doesn't like to play chalk.

As for the "fair track" thing... here's a riddle for you:
4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 4th, 4th, 6th, 1st, 2nd (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 11th
1st, 7th (T), 1st, 7th (T), 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 7th, 2nd, 1st (T), 1st, 1st (T)

Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's probably a little of both....though I tend to side with you. I like the increased possibility of chaos. It probably lends itself better to the Monmouth situation where the amount of work necessary to really handicap the card is so burdensome that a more scattered approach probably increases your chances of getting lucky per se.

The shorter priced horses are probably a little less likely to win and the tails are a little fatter.

Agree with this 100%. Variance is definitely higher- and some races aren't a whole lot of fun, like the Jersey Bred races which have a large majority of the field coming in off a layoff, but say a $10k claimer is a LOT more fun when you have shippers from all over. It's a lot more work, but generally worth the effort. Some may feel different, and I get that approach too (knowing the population inside and out.)

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

OK, sure. But you didn't answer my riddle, which as I knew already you don't listen to anyone so it's not worth trying anyways. For what it's worth, the correct answer was the supposed "fair" track you brought up, Calder, had 7 dirt races on Saturday- 4 were won by the leader at the 1/2 mile call, 2 by the 2nd place horse, and 1 from 7th. 83% speed. How AQU inner runners perform have NO relevance on the track. There were winners shipping from PHA, MTH, GP, MED, KEE, TAM, AQU, AQUI, SAR, CD, DEL, and BEL on the opening weekend.

Despite what the FAT CHARTS wish for- a track "favoring" closers doesn't exist on a regular basis. End of story.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Let's make a mental note to observe how many AQU inner trackers are successful on this track. I know there were at least 2 that won yesterday --- one wire to wire. Then we'll revisit your FAIR track theory about MTH.

Seriously, you can't be this CLUELESS. If I thought that MTH was a fair track, I wouldn't play the game.

Dude for someone as smart as you I can't believe you are not tuned into any changes at Monmouth that may influence the front end bias. Information that is in the public domain. I'll leave it at that since information is the key in this game.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by philcski

Isn't this exactly why you would WANT to play? The increased probability of a big payoff?

There's nothing more boring to me than the same retreads running against each other over and over again, as well as the most difficult to beat.

I think what you want is enough information or insight to determine if there is a good overlay, but as Steve indicates, maybe you won't have enough PP information to have a clear opinion.

It's more like "There's no way in Hell that this horse should be 10-1." But as far as thinking he's the most likely winner -- might not have that insight.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by HomerS

I have gone to both tracks probably 100 times each in my life

I know them both well

All i am saying is three times as many people went to Monmouth and they barely beat Belmont handle

And thats not unusual. Monmouth regularly outdraws Belmont on the weekends in regard to on track attendance

Monmouth is going to need people betting to make this work. Going to the track is not enough they need people betting

Monmouth has always been able to get people to go to the track. Its a beautiful track with a real hard core crowd.

This is about their survival

Can already see from the responses here that it strikes a nerve with people. Not sure why

Not insulting anyone, not belittling Monmouth or what they are doing.

I want this to work.

If it doesnt there is no more Monmouth

People sometimes can't accept that anyone in New Jersey can do something right.

I plan on visiting M.P. at least 10 times this year....maybe even this week.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by HomerS

Are you talking about me? If so you are missing what I am getting at

I like what they have done. Like it

And I plan on betting more this year at Monmouth

But I dont believe they will generate the necessarily handle to make this a long term viable stand alone solution. Slots is going to need to be part of it. Cant sustain the business model the numbers dont work.

PS: Probably going this weekend myself.

PPS: Have been going to Monmouth since 1982

The slots are coming most likely to the meadowlands as part of a revitilazation plan. A.C. will have to suck it up and move on.