Keeneland Spring notes

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

[philcski]

Day 12 4/18/10: Clear and cool; track played fair all day.

Pretty destructive pace battle in the 1st, would give AMAZING SAINT a second look, especially around 1 turn at CD, after putting away two challengers before giving it up late.

I don't necessarily prescribe to the bounce theory but I do believe when a horse gets everything his own way and runs a vastly improved race it's unlikely to repeat that, and is worth a stand against at a short price- and TURALLURE proved that true again in the 5th. That being said, he broke in air and probably deserves a second chance.

EARSTOYOU was ultra impressive off the layoff, but so was USHUAIA, who dueled 4/5 favorite CAUY'S HUMOR into submission. MISSY LOU clunked up for 3rd and the running line is better than the actual performance.

In the finale, upgrade SOUL OF NATAKA for Attfield (probably headed to Woodbine) who was the only horse to make up ground in a very paced race.

[chucklestheclown]

So, after 3 years, does Keeneland mean anything at Churchill?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

This was a clear cut against-the-grainer based on the charts.

[philcski]

Day 13 4/21/10: Track played fair all day. No path or pace biases apparent.
ROBYN'S DREAM broke in air and rushed up to sit a good spot but the damage was done and the jockey didn't appear to persevere in the lane. Would draw a line through the performance.
CAJUN PRIZE got away with the most ridiculous fractions at the entire meet; 1:17 for 6 furlongs is trotter speed. Discount PROVE YOURSELF, who didn't even figure after being close to the front. Upgrade PROMISEI'LLBEHOME who was the only one who really did any running besides the winner. Bad race overall.
MUD CREEK got absolutely destroyed at the start, and never settled into stride after that. would draw a line through the performance. Upgrade FLASHY DREAM who made a nice midrace move before flattening out.
Very strong performance from MAID OF FLOWERS who went way too fast for this level and held well for 2nd. Should win next out at a similar level.
Roger Attfield continued his remarkable meet with a great performance from ERNFOLD, who was on her wrong lead half the stretch and still destroyed a decent field. Stakes contender in the future.
Awful race in the 7th where both the favorites were pulled up; would draw a line through the race and question the performance for everyone.

[philcski]

Day 14 4/22/10 Speed mildly good but not a conveyor belt. No compelling reason to upgrade or downgrade.
In race 1 the two firsters destroyed the field- in MCL races when this happens I like to mark against the remaining bunch because it means they're going to struggle to win anywhere outside of MNR or Ohio. Those were WAR SKY, LARRY APPEL, KARMA DISTRACTION, OLDBLINDNEDD.
Odd betting in the 2nd, as 5 of the 6 had run at the meet, 4 of those 5 well enough, yet the Tampa shipper goes off favored (and runs last). ALBERTA'S BOOK gets a fair track this time around and rolls to a $13.20 victory. Good performance from the 2nd and 3rd runners who dueled the entire way around FORTHEBOYSATTHEBAR and DANCING LYDIA.
Very slow and poor race in the 3rd. Downgrade all the runners beside the winner- LOOSELY, DARKEST HOUR, GERWINII, MEANDER, and DEWBERRY HILL.

Nothing interesting on the rest of the card, except LADY SHAKESPEARE is a very strong candidate to win the F&M Turf if she can continue on her current trajectory. That was an extremely good performance against a rival who had everything her way.