Early Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

When Smarty Jones was walking home at the finish of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and the closers were gaining ground fast, everyone pointed to that race and said "see, he's got distance limitations." When he ran off and hid from them in every other race after that, I didn't hear that anymore. Don't take what happens in a shorter race that is a prep and automatically apply it to what will happen in a longer race. Races of different distances are run in different ways. The timing of when a rider asks a horse to make it's moves, the speed and pace a horse will be asked to run....these things are different and aren't always a proper indicator. What if the horse that just ran second to her comes back and faces her again next out with the same rider? It's not illogical thinking to see how the rider could be thinking that with a little more ground, he can beat Indian Blessing. He could be thinking that IB can't run any further so if he just rides the same kind of race, he can get her late. But what happens if there is no other speed to challenge IB in the next one? What happens if she's allowed to run along at a slower pace and isn't pressed at all around that last turn. Maybe that other rider realizes that he better go after her earlier because she could get away from them and then he takes away some of the late kick of his own mount. Maybe he figures that she'll stop on her own and doesn't go after her and after setting a more leisurely pace, IB doesn't stop. One race doesn't not dictate how another will be run.

So now you're comparing Indian Blessing to Smarty Jones? WTF?