Early Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls
 

Top Twenty Derby Hopefuls - 1/7/08

#1 Monba - Pletcher grey graduated at KEE, won at CD, and finished like a freight train (4th) in the G1 Cash Call Futurity at HOL. Next start will come in either the Fountain of Youth or Risen Star. By Maria's Mon and out of an Easy Goer mare. Lots to like.

#2 Blackberry Road - Half brother to Vindication finally put it all together in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club finishing a close 2nd. It seems like the conventional dirt and two turns is what he wants. Training at the Fair Grounds.

#3 Anak Nakal - G2 Ky JC winner deserves respect and looks to be a serious contender in a loaded barn. Should get better this year. The Classic distance will be no problem for the son of '98 Belmont Champ Victory Gallop.

#4 Pyro - Bridesmaid to War Pass a few times, but as the distances get longer the better he'll get. He was closing nicely in the Champagne and didn't disappoint in the BC Juvy slop at MTH.

#5 Tale of Ekati - Talented runner didn't care for the slop in the BC Juvy and now doesn't like the GP strip, so Tagg will either run him at Tampa Bay or the Fair Grounds. Gutsy runner will show his grit.

#6 Denis of Cork - Impressive maiden winner at CD going 7 furlongs. He did have the fractions up front to run at, but his move at the top of the stretch was something.

#7 Court Vision - Multiple graded winner including the G3 Iroquois at CD and the 1 1/8 G2 Remsen at AQU. Had some trouble in the Remsen, which probably led to the weak BSF of 76.

#8 Into Mischief - G1 Cash Call Futurity Champ showed his stuff in a very contentious race. Mandella trainee will have to translate his success to the conventional dirt.

#9 War Pass - BC and 2yr old champ has been awesome til this point including a eye popping 113 BSF in the BC Juvenile. I just have some reservations about him handling the further distances, especially when he meets some distance challenged front runners.

#10 Maimonides - Crushed maiden foes at the SPA and according to Baffert, you can draw a line through his last (G1 Hopeful) because his shins were killing him. Back in training, but will have to change plans because of the Santa Anita track conditions.

#11 Majestic Warrior - Another talented runner that was sidelined due to injury. Mott looking at a race in March and April before the Derby a la Street Sense last year.

#12 Colonel John - Not the best of trips in the Cash Call Futurity, but still managed to finish 2nd. Like Into Mischief, he's only ran on synthetic surfaces.

#13 The Roundhouse - Half brother to Circular Quay showed some promise last year, but he's still immature and must get it together soon.

#14 Etched - Romped maiden foes and did the same in the G3 Nashua, which included Anak Nakal who finished a distant 2nd (6 1/2 lgts back). He's been transferred to the Godolphin barn and looks to make his next start in the UAE Derby on March 29th. I can't see him coming back for the run for the roses.

#15 Cowboy Cal - He's clearly the best on the lawn in this division and Pletcher will give him another shot on the dirt. Trying to take the Barbaro route - Laurel Futurity - Tropical Park Derby - ?.

#16 Z Humor - Dead heat winner of the G3 Delta Jackpot has the earnings to make the line up on the first Saturday in May, but must continue to move forward.

#17 Turf War - Ditto to Z Humor. Canadian invader really enjoyed the conventional dirt and longer distance.

#18 Check it Twice - Has won three times going two turns including the What a Pleasure at CRC in which he earned a very respectable 96 BSF.

#19 Visionaire - Matz runner drew off to win by 5 1/2 lgts facing Alw company at GP on 1/4/08 at 1 1/8 miles. Will face graded quality in next start.

#20 Jedi Code - Empire Maker son owns a serious late kick, but doesn't have any room for error if he wants to be in the starting gate for the Derby.

Good Racing Luck

Blackberry Road is only a half to Vindication. . . But I agree that he should improve as the distances increase. . . Denis of Cork's my early derby horse but I'd like to see him run again to make sure the maiden win wasn't a fluke. . .

Hockey, thanks, change made. I agree on Denis of Cork.

I have a feeling he won't be ready for the Derby. Will be a nice horse down the line though.

Blackberry Road should put himself fimrly on the map this weekend in a race loaded with speed that should set up perfectly for him.

My top four:

1. War Pass
2. El Gato Malo
3. Indian Blessing
4. Colonel John

That's a pretty fair top 20 list at this point.
I would have honorable mentions go to Paint, Cave's Valley and perhaps Country Star.

Indian Blessing is not getting 10 furlongs in a Grade 1 against colts. As great a talent as she is - if she wins the Derby - I will grow a beard, convert to Islam, and give up the game.

don't you think there are a lot of people who would do whatever they could to keep a Lady for winning at the Men's Club:(

No.

A Lady won at the Men's Club 7 months ago. Whats your point?

Yes - she was the runner in the race best suited for a slow paced 12 furlong race.

Indian Blessing would be the runner least suited to the Derby circumstances - and even if it turns out to be one of the odd years where their isn't a lot of pace - she is still not seeing out the distance in that race.

Even discussing Indian Blessing as a contender for the KY Derby borders on lunacy.

Agree... I didn't think she would even get the BCJF distance.

Double Agree

She only did cause there was amazingly no other frontrunners in the race.

Triple Agree

My point is specifically with the Kentucky Derby. I loved the win at Belmont and cashed the tickets to prove it.

Don't worry... a filly will with the Derby again in our lifetime. Just not this year. There's no conspiracy against it happening.

They said the same things about Winning Colors. That turned out pretty good.

I like to read all the "he/she won't" comments. I read them prior to the BC races and I'll keep reading them through the TC series. I think it's silly to say that a horse only did something because of this or that. The fact is that she did it. Maybe nobody else was a front runner because nobody else has her speed. It wasn't like she was life and death to hold on in her races. She far outdistanced them and until I see proof that the gap is closing, I have to believe she's still far ahead of them. Now, if she had to face War Pass, that might make things interesting. They could cancel each other out. But if only one of them is there, I see no reason why it couldn't be a wire job in May.

Is Woody Stephens coming back from the grave to give a leg up to Pat Day to instruct him to not let the filly win by any means necessary?

Saying that a wire-to-wire win over a sloppy track when so many of her foes didn't fire and she shortened stride during slow final fractions is a powerful enough performance to be considered one of four Derby prospects is dicey in my opinion. It is, of course, your list.

At least you had Colonel John on your list who looks like he might be able to get 10 furlongs. I'm highly skeptical of your other three.

NT

Apparently, Country Star is also being pointed to the Derby, so Indian Blessing can have a little filly-to-filly convo with her if they're both in the gate. :D

All kidding aside, one that I've been interested in is Racecar Rhapsody. Thoughts on him anyone?