12/22: HOL Futurity (Gr. I)

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Interesting spot IMO for Old Man Buck. he ran alright at keeneland on the poly, so maybe he takes to the cushion at Hollywood. He is certainly a nice horse on turf.

Interesting take, by a trip handicapper, on a horse that has had incredibly good fortune. If I didn't know better, I'd think that Motion (Mr. BIG ASS when it comes to racing luck) was the trainer of this horse.

OMB lucked out when facing Cherokee Triangle a few times on the turf early, when the latter was having seriously running-straight-in-the-lane issues and was probably best. (I'd venture a guess that CT DOESN'T LIKE OFF TURF). And, then, last time out, he gets Desormeaux's best ride of the year. KD steers him to the best part of the track early and gets a clear run in the lane while Seaspeak, stupidly kept inside on the backstretch--where divets are flying all over the place-- was doing left and right turns (and I mean this horse was all over the place) in the stretch courtesy of his jock's excessive whipping.

Just a thought.

[NTamm1215]

The field:

1 Sierra Sunset Baze R A 121 L
2 Massive Drama Desormeaux K J 121 L
3 Overextended Garcia M 121 L
4 Eaton's Gift Bejarano R 121 L
5 Indian Sun Solis A 121 L
6 Slew's Tiznow Talamo J 121 L
7 Tres Borrachos Flores D R 121 L
8 Colonel John Nakatani C S 121 L
9 Shore Do Baze M C 121 Blk-Off L
10 Monba Gomez G K 121 L
11 Old Man Buck Valenzuela P A 121 L
12 Into Mischief Espinoza V 121 L
13 Meal Penalty Dominguez R A 121 Blk-On L
14 Referee Leparoux J R 121 L


Good luck!

NT

[Rudeboyelvis]

No Maimonides ??!! I know he's been training out there...Thought he would be going

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

No Maimonides ??!! I know he's been training out there...Thought he would be going

He's being pointed to the San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 12th.

[Bobby Fischer]

I don't feel I have an edge here.

Colonel John will be overbet, but is as good a win candidate as anyone, and should be the favorite. Massive Drama is a toss and one of the only useable expected underlays. Referee is the entry who I expect to have the best derby prep season, although not if he runs out west, where his talent is neutralized. At #14 he is an alternate...
Anything can happen here.


John,sunset,indian,monba,referee are my top 5 , but I wouldn't even put those 5 in an exacta.

[pgiaco]

Had this misfortune of running into Monba in his debut. Looked like a monster. I'll be taking a flyer on him.

[Hoist Her Flag]

Nice to get a full field entered. The last 4 or 5 years this has been a NW of 2 race with 5 or 6 horses. Some speed, some closers, nice breeding. Good connections. Big earnings for the top 2, and some good seasoning for a lot of these horses.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pgiaco

Had this misfortune of running into Monba in his debut. Looked like a monster. I'll be taking a flyer on him.

I wasn't playing the day of Monba's debut, but how the hell does a colt like that go off at 10/1?
It isn't very often you see a 2yo colt with a pedigree and trainer like that go off at those odds. The three stallions in the most important spots in his pedigree (Maria's Mon, Easy Goer, and Silent Screen) were ALL 2yo champions. You don't see that very often. Add in Pletcher and I'm a bit shocked he didn't take more money in a MSW. Of course, I guess it is always a little easier after the fact.

In terms of this race, it looks pretty wide open to me.

[my miss storm cat]

Eaton's Gift.

(Sentimental pick, Overextended but not this time.....)

[NoChanceToDance]

Not original, but I really like Colonel John.

Needs to improve a bit, but looks on the uograde and has no problems with the distance.

But hey, I'm a Euro, what do I know

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

MOMBA #10 - Value play
COLONEL JOHN #8 - Most likely
EATON'S GIFT #4 - Underneath top two
INTO MISCHIEF #12 - Underneath top two

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

MOMBA #10 - Value play
COLONEL JOHN #8 - Most likely
EATON'S GIFT #4 - Underneath top two
INTO MISCHIEF #12 - Underneath top two

Well...three out of four, story of my life.
Momba finished "with interest" though.

[azerica]

Not a bad race at all. Nicely done...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You make a few points. I happen to like Old Man Buck as a horse, I'm not trying to be clever or anything. He has no "trips" to speak of, I'm just a fan. Although we'll have to agree to disagree on his races with Cherokee triangle. You are right, CT did have some issues in the lane, but at no point, at least to me does it look like he is going by OMB. I suppose you can blame it on the turf, but it seems too convenient to me.

He was kept out of harm's way in the Grand Canyon, but I still think the best horse won that day. Sometimes horses that are the best going in, work out a good trip because they are the best. It's not like he is having the best trips ever in his races, just no trouble to speak of. I personally can't fault a horse for not finding trouble. I'm not betting the race as I'll be in no betting land in the Carolina's. But I just thought he was a bit interesting. I still think Colonel John might be a nice one. We'll see.

All I can suggest is that you take a close look at the headons of some of these races. OMB could win. I don't think there are any killers in here.

As for Colonel John, his last 2 races were nice but he got perfect setups (especially the last one) and I couldn't help but note that Grace Anatomy ran MUCH FASTER, at the same distance, than he did his 1st time out. Wonder why she's not in here. I'm serious