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#1
04-30-2015, 02:40 PM
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5/1: Churchill Downs (141st Kentucky Oaks Day)
CHURCHILL DOWNS -- OAKS DAY
POST EARLY SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Chide 4-1 2nd Best Value: #4 Julep 8-1 7th Next Best: #5 Kathballu 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #3 Opening Act 4-1 9th Super Add: #9 Tasseography 6-1 8th 2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #9 Kitela 4-1 3rd Best Value: #3 Seoul Gold 15-1 7th Next Best: #4 Killer Partner 5-2 WON ($8.20) Exotics Use: #1 Zealoius Madame 20-1 10th Super Add: #5 Play the Break 12-1 5th 3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Curalina 7-2 WON ($4.40) Next Best: #6 Garden Princess 5-2 4th Best Value: #7 Affect 5-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Distraction 12-1 3rd 4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Best Value: #11 The Strip 12-1 4th Next Best: #5 Counterfactual 9-2 8th-DH Exotics Use: #1 Heart of Midway 6-1 10th Super Add: #2 Diva Express 6-1 3rd 5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (Lucky 7, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Elusive Fate 7-2 2nd Next Best: #3 Ambusher 9-2 7th Exotics Use: #7 Enchanting Lisa 5-1 5th Best Value: #6 Senior Prom 12-1 8th Super Add: #11 Zeven 5-1 3rd P4 Grid: 2: 3-9 (A), 1-4 (B), 5-6 (C) 3: 6-8 (A), 7 (B), 5 (C) 4: 11 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-13 (C) 5: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 4-11 (C) Full (A/B/C): $72 (With $1 All A Play) Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 6th: 30th Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 My Year Is a Day 5-2 5th Next Best: #1 Quality Rocks 3-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Lady Zuzu 15-1 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Flying Tipat 30-1 7th 7th: 30th La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Sheer Drama 3-1 2nd Best Value: #4 America 10-1 7th Next Best: #2 My Miss Sophia 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #7 Gold Medal Dancer 9-2 3rd P4 Grid: 4: 5-11 (A), 1-2 (B), 9-13 (C) 5: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 4-11 (C) 6: 1-4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C) 7: 4-5 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-7-8-9 (C) Full (A/B/C): $82 Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 8th: 12th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Protonico 7-5 WON ($4.80) Next Best: #7 Honor Code 8-5 5th Best Value: #3 Neck 'n Neck 10-1 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Call Me George 15-1 8th 9th: 21st Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, (P3, DD) Best Value: #10 Power Alert 5-1 WON ($12.40) Next Best: #12 Undrafted 7-2 2nd Exotics Use: #11 Something Extra 3-1 3rd Super Add: #8 Good Deed 4-1 4th-DH $1 Exacta (10-12) Paid $31.20 $1 Trifecta (10-12-11) Paid $112.40 $1 Superfecta (10-12-11-8) Paid $232.10 10th: 60th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f ( Most Likely: #12 Taylor S 4-1 6th Next Best: #8 Enchanting Lady 4-1 9th Best Value: #3 Ekati's Phaeton 6-1 11th Exotics Use: #2 Promise Me Silver 9-2 WON ($12.60) Super Add: #1 Callback 3-1 2nd 11th: 141st Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-WR-KD P3, KO-KD DBL, DD, Super Hi-5) After a winter that saw the filly class floundering about, spring delivered them to a new level right on time and this is a terrific Oaks. As Baffert holds the strong pair for the boys Saturday, Larry Jones does here with Lovely Maria and I'm a Chatterbox. Have doubted Chatterbox all winter but from a pure capping standpoint, her merits are sound. The Kerwin Clark story has been one of the year's best and improving stalker Lovely Maria looks ready to peak to give Gov. Jones a 3rd blanket of lilies (Proud Spell, Believe You Can). Birdatthewire is a masculine filly that has been the most impressive of the Oaks workers the last 2 weeks. Was nearly perfect over the winter on testing Gulfstream strip and will get a pace scenario she likes. Pletcher's Angela Renee and Mott's Puca are both winless as sophomores but appear poised for best tries here at surprising tote.. Most Likely: #7 Lovely Maria 5-1 WON ($14.60) Next Best: #13 Birdatthewire 6-1 5th Best Value: #6 Angela Renee 15-1 6th Exotics Use: #8 I'm a Chatterbox 4-1 3rd Hi-5 Play: #14 Puca 15-1 12th P4 Grid: 8: 2-7 (A), 3 (B), 4-9-10 (C) 9: 10-12 (A), 8-9-11 (B), 2-3 (C) 10: 12 (A), 8 (B), 1-2-3 (C) 11: 7-13 (A), 6-8-14 (B), 2-11-12 (C) Full (A/B/C): $83 $0.50 Pick-4 (2,5/10/2/7) Paid $379.00 Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75 $60 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3: Oaks: 6-7-8-13-14 Woodford: 3-5-7-8 Derby: 8-10-18 5x4x3 = $60 $75 Oaks-Derby Double: Oaks: 7-13 Derby: 8-10-18 2x3 = 6 x $6 = $36 Oaks: 6-8-14 Derby: 8-10-18 3x3 = 9 x $3 = $27 Oaks: 7-13 Derby: 4-5-6-7-9-19 2x6 = $12 12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f Most Likely: #5 Roberta Turner SCR Best Value: #11 Sierra Squall 20-1 4th Next Best: #1 Paid Up Subscriber 3-1 WON ($4.80) Exotics Use: #6 Bon Heir 6-1 5th Super Add: #4 Lunar Gaze 8-1 6th
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 05-01-2015 at 09:07 PM. 
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#2
04-30-2015, 08:22 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
05-01-2015, 04:54 AM
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Thanks a lot.. As usual, the two weeks have gone by in a flash. Hope everyone got things they can use today and tomorrow.. Safe trips all and let's get lucky!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#9
05-01-2015, 10:16 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#10
05-01-2015, 10:19 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#11
05-01-2015, 10:20 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#13
05-02-2015, 05:51 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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