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Kasept 04-30-2015 02:40 PM

5/1: Churchill Downs (141st Kentucky Oaks Day)
 
CHURCHILL DOWNS -- OAKS DAY


POST EARLY SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Chide 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Julep 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Kathballu 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Opening Act 4-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Tasseography 6-1 8th


2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Kitela 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Seoul Gold 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Killer Partner 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Zealoius Madame 20-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Play the Break 12-1 5th


3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Curalina 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #6 Garden Princess 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Affect 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Distraction 12-1 3rd


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 The Strip 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Counterfactual 9-2 8th-DH
Exotics Use: #1 Heart of Midway 6-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Diva Express 6-1 3rd


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (Lucky 7, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Elusive Fate 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Ambusher 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Enchanting Lisa 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Senior Prom 12-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Zeven 5-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

2: 3-9 (A), 1-4 (B), 5-6 (C)
3: 6-8 (A), 7 (B), 5 (C)
4: 11 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-13 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 4-11 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $72 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: 30th Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 My Year Is a Day 5-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Quality Rocks 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Lady Zuzu 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Flying Tipat 30-1 7th


7th: 30th La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sheer Drama 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 America 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 My Miss Sophia 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Gold Medal Dancer 9-2 3rd


P4 Grid:

4: 5-11 (A), 1-2 (B), 9-13 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 4-11 (C)
6: 1-4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-7-8-9 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $82
Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


8th: 12th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Protonico 7-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #7 Honor Code 8-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Neck 'n Neck 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Call Me George 15-1 8th


9th: 21st Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Power Alert 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #12 Undrafted 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Something Extra 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Good Deed 4-1 4th-DH


$1 Exacta (10-12) Paid $31.20
$1 Trifecta (10-12-11) Paid $112.40
$1 Superfecta (10-12-11-8) Paid $232.10



10th: 60th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (

Most Likely: #12 Taylor S 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Enchanting Lady 4-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Ekati's Phaeton 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Promise Me Silver 9-2 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #1 Callback 3-1 2nd


11th: 141st Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-WR-KD P3, KO-KD DBL, DD, Super Hi-5)

After a winter that saw the filly class floundering about, spring delivered them to a new level right on time and this is a terrific Oaks. As Baffert holds the strong pair for the boys Saturday, Larry Jones does here with Lovely Maria and I'm a Chatterbox. Have doubted Chatterbox all winter but from a pure capping standpoint, her merits are sound. The Kerwin Clark story has been one of the year's best and improving stalker Lovely Maria looks ready to peak to give Gov. Jones a 3rd blanket of lilies (Proud Spell, Believe You Can). Birdatthewire is a masculine filly that has been the most impressive of the Oaks workers the last 2 weeks. Was nearly perfect over the winter on testing Gulfstream strip and will get a pace scenario she likes. Pletcher's Angela Renee and Mott's Puca are both winless as sophomores but appear poised for best tries here at surprising tote..

Most Likely: #7 Lovely Maria 5-1 WON ($14.60)
Next Best: #13 Birdatthewire 6-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Angela Renee 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 I'm a Chatterbox 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #14 Puca 15-1 12th


P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), 3 (B), 4-9-10 (C)
9: 10-12 (A), 8-9-11 (B), 2-3 (C)
10: 12 (A), 8 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
11: 7-13 (A), 6-8-14 (B), 2-11-12 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $83 $0.50 Pick-4 (2,5/10/2/7) Paid $379.00
Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


$60 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Oaks: 6-7-8-13-14
Woodford: 3-5-7-8
Derby: 8-10-18

5x4x3 = $60


$75 Oaks-Derby Double:

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 8-10-18

2x3 = 6 x $6 = $36

Oaks: 6-8-14
Derby: 8-10-18

3x3 = 9 x $3 = $27

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 4-5-6-7-9-19

2x6 = $12


12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #5 Roberta Turner SCR
Best Value: #11 Sierra Squall 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Paid Up Subscriber 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Bon Heir 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Lunar Gaze 8-1 6th

Kasept 04-30-2015 08:22 PM

CD EARLY SCR/CHG'S

luv2gambl 05-01-2015 04:03 AM

Steve,

Best of luck with your picks. Thanks for another great year of coverage from Churchill.


Mike

Kasept 05-01-2015 04:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by luv2gambl (Post 1024814)
Steve,

Best of luck with your picks. Thanks for another great year of coverage from Churchill.

Mike

Mike..

Thanks a lot.. As usual, the two weeks have gone by in a flash. Hope everyone got things they can use today and tomorrow..

Safe trips all and let's get lucky!

asudevil 05-01-2015 04:34 PM

Nice cold straight super in the 9th!!! Even with the Covello curse!!

Max 05-01-2015 05:29 PM

Steve,

Thanks for your hard work and for the Oaks winner. :)

atolunch 05-01-2015 05:47 PM

Great job today Steve!

Congrats and thanks as always.:tro::$:

Here's to a monster day tomorrow!!

ADJMK 05-01-2015 07:35 PM

Congrats . Dead on with the Oaks winner

Kasept 05-01-2015 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by asudevil (Post 1025010)
Nice cold straight super in the 9th!!! Even with the Covello curse!!

THX.. Came in the nick of time and commenced a nice rally. Was delighted for Lynch, Covello and Co. Today was Brian's birthday..

Kasept 05-01-2015 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max (Post 1025034)
Steve,

Thanks for your hard work and for the Oaks winner. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ADJMK (Post 1025057)
Congrats . Dead on with the Oaks winner

Thanks guys.. She looked like the most progressive gal and just throttled them. Was fun to be on hand for it.

Kasept 05-01-2015 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch (Post 1025040)
Great job today Steve!

Congrats and thanks as always.:tro::$:

Here's to a monster day tomorrow!!

THX Larry.. Hope you and everyone did well. Let's get lucky tomorrow!

Kitan 05-01-2015 10:46 PM

Great finish to the card!

Kasept 05-02-2015 05:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kitan (Post 1025094)
Great finish to the card!

Thx K.. Needed it. Best of luck today!


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