Derby Trail Forums - 5/1: Churchill Downs (141st Kentucky Oaks Day)

CHURCHILL DOWNS -- OAKS DAY

POST EARLY SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Chide 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Julep 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Kathballu 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Opening Act 4-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Tasseography 6-1 8th

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Kitela 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Seoul Gold 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Killer Partner 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Zealoius Madame 20-1 10th
Super Add: #5 Play the Break 12-1 5th

3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Curalina 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #6 Garden Princess 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 Affect 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Distraction 12-1 3rd

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #11 The Strip 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Counterfactual 9-2 8th-DH
Exotics Use: #1 Heart of Midway 6-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Diva Express 6-1 3rd

5th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (Lucky 7, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Elusive Fate 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Ambusher 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Enchanting Lisa 5-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Senior Prom 12-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Zeven 5-1 3rd

P4 Grid:

2: 3-9 (A), 1-4 (B), 5-6 (C)
3: 6-8 (A), 7 (B), 5 (C)
4: 11 (A), 1-5 (B), 2-13 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 4-11 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $72 (With $1 All A Play)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: 30th Edgewood (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 My Year Is a Day 5-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Quality Rocks 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Lady Zuzu 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Flying Tipat 30-1 7th

7th: 30th La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Sheer Drama 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 America 10-1 7th
Next Best: #2 My Miss Sophia 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Gold Medal Dancer 9-2 3rd

P4 Grid:

4: 5-11 (A), 1-2 (B), 9-13 (C)
5: 3-5 (A), 6-7 (B), 4-11 (C)
6: 1-4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C)
7: 4-5 (A), 2 (B), 1-3-7-8-9 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $82
Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

8th: 12th Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Protonico 7-5 WON ($4.80)
Next Best: #7 Honor Code 8-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Neck 'n Neck 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Call Me George 15-1 8th

9th: 21st Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, (P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Power Alert 5-1 WON ($12.40)
Next Best: #12 Undrafted 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Something Extra 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Good Deed 4-1 4th-DH

$1 Exacta (10-12) Paid $31.20
$1 Trifecta (10-12-11) Paid $112.40
$1 Superfecta (10-12-11-8) Paid $232.10

10th: 60th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (

Most Likely: #12 Taylor S 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Enchanting Lady 4-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Ekati's Phaeton 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2 Promise Me Silver 9-2 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #1 Callback 3-1 2nd

11th: 141st Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-WR-KD P3, KO-KD DBL, DD, Super Hi-5)

After a winter that saw the filly class floundering about, spring delivered them to a new level right on time and this is a terrific Oaks. As Baffert holds the strong pair for the boys Saturday, Larry Jones does here with Lovely Maria and I'm a Chatterbox. Have doubted Chatterbox all winter but from a pure capping standpoint, her merits are sound. The Kerwin Clark story has been one of the year's best and improving stalker Lovely Maria looks ready to peak to give Gov. Jones a 3rd blanket of lilies (Proud Spell, Believe You Can). Birdatthewire is a masculine filly that has been the most impressive of the Oaks workers the last 2 weeks. Was nearly perfect over the winter on testing Gulfstream strip and will get a pace scenario she likes. Pletcher's Angela Renee and Mott's Puca are both winless as sophomores but appear poised for best tries here at surprising tote..

Most Likely: #7 Lovely Maria 5-1 WON ($14.60)
Next Best: #13 Birdatthewire 6-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Angela Renee 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 I'm a Chatterbox 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #14 Puca 15-1 12th

P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), 3 (B), 4-9-10 (C)
9: 10-12 (A), 8-9-11 (B), 2-3 (C)
10: 12 (A), 8 (B), 1-2-3 (C)
11: 7-13 (A), 6-8-14 (B), 2-11-12 (C)

Full (A/B/C): $83 $0.50 Pick-4 (2,5/10/2/7) Paid $379.00
Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$60 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3:

Oaks: 6-7-8-13-14
Woodford: 3-5-7-8
Derby: 8-10-18

5x4x3 = $60

$75 Oaks-Derby Double:

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 8-10-18

2x3 = 6 x $6 = $36

Oaks: 6-8-14
Derby: 8-10-18

3x3 = 9 x $3 = $27

Oaks: 7-13
Derby: 4-5-6-7-9-19

2x6 = $12

12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #5 Roberta Turner SCR
Best Value: #11 Sierra Squall 20-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Paid Up Subscriber 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Bon Heir 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Lunar Gaze 8-1 6th