NYT Series: "Mangled Horses, Maimed Jockeys"

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Powderfinger

There is a counter argument to the conclusion that the study you referred to , and similar studies like it, come to. The problem with these studies is that they lump all two-year-olds together because , in most cases, the horses that are racing and winning these two-year-old races are the cream of the crop - they are superior to the rest of their class and therefore will have more successful careers whether they raced at 2 or not. Remember most thoroughbreds don't even hit the race track.
I could say that a football player will have a better pro career if he plays college football, I don't think anyone would argue with me on that. But the reason that these people are playing college ball is because they are better than everyone else. I didn't play college football because I sucked. I couldn't make the college team. So to say that Brett Farve has had a more successful pro football career than I because he played college football and I didn't , wouldn't be correct. No, he is the superior athlete to me and it wouldn't matter when we started playing. I guess it all depends what you want to do with your horse. If you pay $2M at the Keenland yearling sale, you probably want to win the Kentucky Derby. I don't believe that there has ever been a derby winner who hasn't raced at 2. On the other hand, many of these Irish trainers don't start training their equines until three, because their goal is the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I found this interesting - according to a tweet I got from DRF (don't recall if it was anyone in particular, and have not investigated the claim for veracity) -
The last horse to break his maiden at Saratoga and go on to win the Kentucky Derby?


Decidedly ~ 1962

That's pretty sobering - looking back over the years at all of the horses that have debuted as 2yos convincingly at the Spa and what their careers at 3 through 5 turned out - usually sent to the BC off one prep, then given a ridiculous amt of time off, then are put on a stringent training regiment to try and make the Kentucky Derby field with no bottom in them... Then we see them at 4 or 5 for their return to the track, or they some how make it through 2 of the 3 legs of the TC and are off until their 4 year old campaign.

I don't know and never would consider myself even remotely knowledgeable on the subject, it just seems to me that some are bred to fly early and burn out, while others not only further develop, but improve with age.