How much is too much?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

That is exactly why ROI is the way to evaluate information. It should be obvious that the most likely winner is very often not the best bet. The best bet is the one whose odds of winning show the biggest positive discrepancy from the betting odds. A 10-1 shot (in the betting) with a 15% chance of winning the race is a much better bet than an even money fav with a 50% chance of winning the race. ROI is a way of measuring that kind of betting skill.

However, a public handicapper's ROI is a terribly unfair way to measure their handicapping acumen, as their picks must be in well in advance ( I rarely send mine in later than 48 hours before raceday ) and thus they can't make adjustments for value. A perfect example would be yesterday's 1st race at Aqueduct. I picked the race 1-2, but when the 2 was, what I felt was, a big overlay at over 4:1, I bet him to win ( I also Tweeted about this before the race ). My ROI reflects a loser, and according to what you wrote it theoretically shouldn't....but it does.

The bottom line is that, for the most part, 1-2-3 picks are for people that don't really want to hear the handicapping discussion, or the haters that are happy that no puiblic handicapper can realistically show a positive ROI over time ( though, I have been disproving that, miraculously, for a while ). We don't even really want to offer them at NYRA, as we feel they detract from what we are trying to do, which is engage people in the handicapping discussion, which inevitably will create many more fans than 1-2-3 picks, but too many people want them for us to not give them out.