Blind Luck

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I would disagree as you know. On dirt, Z's total lack of early speed is going to be a detriment on dirt. Blind Luck, while a similar style, is able to maintain closer contact in my opinion on dirt. That very attribute is what caused her to lose a few times on rubber.

You can pretend the surfaces are the same all you want, it just isn't so.

I don't think that BL maintains any closer contact in her races than Z does. What both can do, that Biofuel, another poly runner with a similar style can't, or, at least, hasn't shown the ability to do so up to this point, is run without needing 'escorts'. Biofuel got terrible trips in her two races against DMC, as she had to do all her own running. She was able to win over the weekend at WO because others ran before she did and she picked up the pieces -- albeit with a very nice late run.

But not being 'escorted' is pretty much never a problem on dirt in races with a reasonably large field, on a fair track, which the Classic will be. Z has 2 races on dirt, both with good setups, and both HUGE wipeouts. BL's best race (in terms of figures and visual impressiveness) was a similarly well setup wipeout. Once again, IMO, BL, while very impressive, hasn't shown the kind of late kick that Z exhibits, nor the ability to overcome 'as difficult' setups. In other words, Z needs to be 'escorted' significantly less than BL. Z just pushes a bigger gear --- bigger than any horse out there. She'd bury BL if they were to come home together.