12/11: Aqueduct (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Sloppy play and/or poor decision-making cost a very nice overlaid P4 at Hollywood yesterday of nearly $560. Leaving $28.00 Next of Kendra off to start the ticket was the culprit, unless you designate not singling 2-5 Tenacious Tina in the 7th as the costliest miscue. Either way, this was a sequence that had a broad target on it and I missed.

Looking back at the races after the card concluded was hard to take, as the P6 paid $38,600. On the day, I came up with 3 Most Likely on top winners, a 2nd choice Best Value and the 2 slightly harder to find winners (5th/8th) as Super Adds. While it's silly to say the P6 could have been hit, it's stunning that the sextet paid that well on a group of races that didn't offer full fields or very confusing scenarios.

I almost never play a P6 without a carryover, but seeing what happened yesterday would give pause to think about what situations make it attractive without a bonus pot. Hope you did OK.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky low level claiming event with mish mosh of out of form types and general misfits..

Most Likely: #6 Yes It's the Truth 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 West Coast Flier 6-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Laudable 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 French Transition 20-1 9th


7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Positive Prospect 9-5 WON
Next Best: #8 Chippewa Court 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Let's Fly Away 15-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Unicorn Girl 8-1 9th


8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 J L Bernstein 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Goodbyeandgoodluck 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Vinnie Van Go 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Longing for Malibu 10-1 6th


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (Super)

Best Value: #2 Dougout Deputy 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Centrina 4-1
Next Best: #3 Catchapenny K. 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Every Little Thing 5-2 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 1-8
8: 2-3-7
9: 2-3-7-10

3x2x3x4 = $72

$1 P4 (5-1-2-10) Paid $135.05


Good luck!
Steve