12/11: Aqueduct (6th-9th)
 

Sloppy play and/or poor decision-making cost a very nice overlaid P4 at Hollywood yesterday of nearly $560. Leaving $28.00 Next of Kendra off to start the ticket was the culprit, unless you designate not singling 2-5 Tenacious Tina in the 7th as the costliest miscue. Either way, this was a sequence that had a broad target on it and I missed.

Looking back at the races after the card concluded was hard to take, as the P6 paid $38,600. On the day, I came up with 3 Most Likely on top winners, a 2nd choice Best Value and the 2 slightly harder to find winners (5th/8th) as Super Adds. While it's silly to say the P6 could have been hit, it's stunning that the sextet paid that well on a group of races that didn't offer full fields or very confusing scenarios.

I almost never play a P6 without a carryover, but seeing what happened yesterday would give pause to think about what situations make it attractive without a bonus pot. Hope you did OK.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky low level claiming event with mish mosh of out of form types and general misfits..

Most Likely: #6 Yes It's the Truth 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 West Coast Flier 6-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Laudable 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 French Transition 20-1 9th


7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Positive Prospect 9-5 WON
Next Best: #8 Chippewa Court 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Let's Fly Away 15-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Unicorn Girl 8-1 9th


8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 J L Bernstein 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Goodbyeandgoodluck 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Vinnie Van Go 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Longing for Malibu 10-1 6th


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (Super)

Best Value: #2 Dougout Deputy 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Centrina 4-1
Next Best: #3 Catchapenny K. 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Every Little Thing 5-2 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 1-8
8: 2-3-7
9: 2-3-7-10

3x2x3x4 = $72

$1 P4 (5-1-2-10) Paid $135.05


Good luck!
Steve

AQU SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp


6TH: 4 Pay in Kind Early

8TH: 1 (poe) Jimmy Vegas Early

9TH: 1A Windy Jo Early

Surprised they're running as frigid as it is here today. I've always said I don't think jockeys should be allowed to use whips when it's this cold. Seems inhumane.

High winds too...

Ill take under 3 races.

I have never set foot inside the big A and was curious how it races relative to direction as in east/west/north/south. The winds today are listed as about 25-30 MPH with gusts as high as 40-45. I wouldn't make it the primary tool today in capping the card but which way is west, or into the wind on the track?

Does the stretch to the line have the horses traveling east or with the wind?

Recently I heard Andy make mention of some sort of index that evaluates track bias and on one particular card Auqueduct had the strongest closer bias ever at 160?? for whatever that means. Do you know anything about this stuff Steve? I'll hang up now and listen to your answer....lol.

I think the run down the strecth is west to east, if my sense of direction is correct.

This could be a reference to the "Plodboys" who track the biases on the major circuits. I think there website is www.plodboys.com I think I looked into their stuff last year but being the "dummy" Ii am I couldn't understand. I think most likely due to my lack of effort and willingness to try.

Here's a link to the satellite image.

http://maps.google.com/maps?sourceid...N&hl=en&tab=wl

Winds out of the SW are going to be at the back of the horses as they go down the backstretch.

NT

No.. No idea. Wasn't from Andy. Could be what HH is referencing.

Cold Tri in 8th.. Nice work Steve

nice effort Steve...I picks up a few $$$ with your picks! Thanks!

j and g,

THX! Was an OK day considering the low mutuels... Glad it went well!

Good card at the Big A tomorrow!