Keeneland Sale: 'Hip Watch' and running observations..

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Dixie Union's results thus far
Hip #31 RNA (140k)
Hip #368 500k
Hip #372 300k
Hip #490 RNA (235k)
Hip #501 40k
Hip #643 205k
Hip #716 130k
Hip #843 75k
Hip #1027 125k
Hip #1059 RNA (45k)

Last year
#252 190k
#278 120k
#368 RNA 120k
#382 75k
#547 190k
#603 130k
#658 240k
#678 400k
#716 RNA 45k
#742 120k
#827 200k
#924 250k
#928 160k
#979 150k
#1035 240k
#1078 350k




Last year there were 16 DU's through the ring in the first 2 books, this year there were 10. So much for the notion that recent results had anything to do with the placement of DU's since there were 6 LESS horses in the first 2 books. Last year there was 1 horse in the 1st 2 books to sell for less than 6 figures and 2 failed to sell. This year there were 2 non six figure horses and 3 that failed to sell, out of 10. It is hard to make the assumption that Dixie Unions recent sales results has much if anything to do with the his success this year. As a matter of fact if you take out #368 (who I had graded as high as I ever have graded a yearling) you could say that he has had a less than stellar sale. But then again you can simply state your theory with no real comprehension of the numbers, the sales or people behind them and believe whatever you want. It is the internet of course. 368 was a superior horse regardless of sire. That guarantees nothing on the track but to say that she was only a high dollar horse because Gone Astray won the PA Derby has nothing to do with reality.

Let's recap, I haven't suggested anything on placement other then to state the obvious which is DU is a Lanes End Stallion and hence if Farish calls in a fav or two it will get done.
Perhaps now you can take your spin and adjust it according to the overall market instead of isolating it from reality. The Book 1 results were off 36%, are we to suggest this years DU's shouldn't have suffered an equal decline in average price?.. Since DU performance was fair from the first crops it makes sense that the quality of mares has been in decline. It makes sense that less are in this years books 1,2. More importantly your Simon"10 helmet yearling of the book" would have been just another stunning horse from a stallion that had never produced a strong GRADE 1 racehorse. So regardless of how many Stars, Helmets, or A+'s you assigned this adonis, the horse would have still had to overcome his sires lack of production. Consider that this "Super Simon" eclipsed last years top seller by 25% in a market that was in step decline suggesting that it was on looks and not the recent success of Gone Astray and Just Whistle really is suspect. You have people buying Birdstones for 400k now perhap those are gorgeous horses as well?

The best advice I ever heard about buying yearlings was from Jerry Evilsizer..Said to me " It doesn't matter what flaws they have, it only matters if the flaws they have can stop them from being great, it aint a beauty contest." Which brings me to my next point, regardless of how special she looked unless DU had produced a potentially great horse last week, your queen would have just been another smokin gal.

In all fairness, I would never doubt your abilty to spot a wonderfully made horse, nor would I ever doubt your understanding of pedigree. Moreover I respect it highly as I am sure you work your butt off as a pro to make educated decisions for you and your clients.

You have to consider human nature, they all want a M'doro because they want to own the next Rachel. It's no different with these DU's last week they came of age after 5 years and at once. The filly won on a grand stage in real serious fashion..Hence DU's became in fashion, its a market, the highs are too high and the lows are to low and none of it ever needs to make sense.