Performance Figures & the Derby

[somerfrost]

As I've previously stated, I prefer Dr Roman's PF's to Beyers...another thread questioned the possibility of a sub-100 Beyer for this year's winner...I would likewise say no! Looking at the PF's for Derby winners since 1999 (Charismatic) we see
99...-48
00...-57
01...-75
02...-61
03...-60
04...-63
05...-48
06...-60
Looking at those numbers, one would expect a winning PF around -60 this year although lower is possible given the prep results.
Here is an interesting note for what it may be worth, in 8 of the last 9 years, the Derby winner had a PF of -54 or better in a 3yo prep of 8f or longer (Giacomo being the exception). This year, 6 horses meet that standard:
Circular Quay...-65
Any Given Sat...-60
Street Sense...-60
Nobiz...-55
Dominican...-54
Zanjero...-54
Again...just something to think about!