Angle: MSW to Grade 2 (dirt)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Easy Goer Otis

MSW to G1:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 1 stake (on the dirt) are 11 for 95 (12%) with an*ROI of -33%.

Avg Odds: 21.70
Avg Odds winners: 4.76
Avg finish: 4.38

Highest priced winners:

Sippican Harbor (16-1)
Mind Control (10-1)
Maxfield (6-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Chad Brown (2 for 6, +$0.80)
S. Asmussen (2 for 7, +$2.10)
Bob Baffert (2 for 10, -$7.20)

MSW to G3:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 3 stake (on the dirt) are 22 for 161 (14%) with an*ROI of -39%.

Avg Odds: 21.60
Avg Odds winners: 3.45
Avg finish: 4.83

Highest priced winners:

Cairo Cat (17-1)
Independence Hall (10-1)
Lombo (9-1)
Max Player (5-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Bob Baffert (3 for 6, $0.00)
Mark Casse (2 for 15, -$16.40)


While the average odds and average finish are virtually identical across all three Graded Stake levels, only the move to a G2 has been profitable over the past 25 months.

Cheers,

Otis

Thanks a bunch for posting the additional info!

I was hoping for something more promising than a -39% ROI for the Grade 3's. It's a fine line between G2 and G3. While it's possible there's something special about MSW-to-G2 that doesn't apply to MSW-to-G3 or MSW-to-G1, the complete lack of success with those moves makes it seem likely that the MSW-to-G2 result is a temporary aberration.

Thanks again for posting it.

Dunbar