here is what i think,start calling me a dummy

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ontheoutside

you and I have different opinions on this and steve and mig agree with me if you listened to show just wanted it to point it out so ill end this subject and lets move on to others your opinion will never sway me and mine [even with steve and mig agreeing with me] will not sway yours good luck with your betting knock them dead

I listened to the interview. I agree with practically everything they said. As they both said, they think the horse looks great right now. I agree 100%. As they both said, we have seen horses who looked unbeatable after winning the first two legs, yet got beat in the Belmont. As Mig and Steve said, many people including myself were not particularly impressed with Justify's Preakness performance. As Steve said, right after the race and the next few days after the race, many people including myself were thinking the horse was a great bet against in the Belmont.

But now that I've seen how good the horse is training, I'm not nearly as eager to bet against him. I was thinking the reason that he didn't run that well in the Preakness was because he was probably tired. But a tired horse is not going to look the way he looks right now. So the question is why wasn't he more impressive in the Preakness. I think your analysis and Mig's analysis may have been right. I may have underestimated the difficulty of his trip. I thought he had a relatively easy trip. But as you guys said, he was head and head with a very good horse. And maybe the pace was faster than I thought. On a day when it's raining all day, the track can change quite a bit over the course of the day. The fractions didn't seem particularly fast to me, but they may have actually been faster than I thought. In addition, in hindsight I think he may not have handled the track that well.

We may see the real Justify on a fast track in the Belmont. There is still some question about the distance but there is a question about the distance for practically any horse running 1 1/2 miles. Whether I bet against Justify will depend on his price. Now that I have seen how well he is training, I think the chances of him winning have gone way up. By the same token, many great horses have gotten beaten in the Belmont. If he goes off at even money, I doubt I will bet against him. But if he is a heavy odds-on favorite, I will probably take a moderate shot against him. I no longer have a strong opinion on the race. I would not be surprised to see Justify win easily. By the same token, I would not be surprised to see him get beat.

Here is an interesting article on the case against Justify:
http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-b...-story-justify