American Pharoah...

[Aly-Sheba]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.

I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.