Dead Rail

[dalakhani]

Did anyone else think the rail was dead for both days? It seemed like the track was playing much like it was for the breeders cup last year.

[Rootdog1]

I thought speed was not holding well at all....but i am biased as I was in with the Shackleford connections.

[3kings]

The wind was pretty strong most of the day and blowing directly into the face of the horses coming down the stretch. I think it was at least a contributing factor.

[Kasept]

Yes, and I believe it was more pronounced Friday. Caracortado was flying until Talamo brought him inside and he began to immediately bog. And St. John's River only burst forward once Napravnik got her off the rail.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Yes, and I believe it was more pronounced Friday. Caracortado was flying until Talamo brought him inside and he began to immediately bog. And St. John's River only burst forward once Napravnik got her off the rail.

The problem with this thinking is that most horses are apprehensive about rallying inside in the stretch, despite what a former poster here thinks, and will hesitate inside, but rally strongly once taking outside their rival(s) as St. John's River did. Take a look at the stretch of Saturday's Ft. Marcy at Belmont, for a good example of this, and one on turf so as to take away any possible dirt bias misunderstanding.

I'm not saying the rail was necessarily the best place to be Friday or Saturday, but with racing generally having an outside flow if the racetrack is even, and the races are run fairly, tracks can often appear to have an anti-rail bias when, in fact, one doesn't exist at all.

[randallscott35]

I thought the rail at Belmont yesterday wasn't particularly good.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem with this thinking is that most horses are apprehensive about rallying inside in the stretch, despite what a former poster here thinks, and will hesitate inside, but rally strongly once taking outside their rival(s) as St. John's River did. Take a look at the stretch of Saturday's Ft. Marcy at Belmont, for a good example of this, and one on turf so as to take away any possible dirt bias misunderstanding.

I'm not saying the rail was necessarily the best place to be Friday or Saturday, but with racing generally having an outside flow if the racetrack is even, and the races are run fairly, tracks can often appear to have an anti-rail bias when, in fact, one doesn't exist at all.

I agree with this, if anything the track was very tiring and not kind to speed... which means the firster that won the maiden race for Baffert might actually be as good as advertised on the toteboard, and also Shackleford should be upgraded going forward.

For what it's worth I bet St. John's River and thought Rosie gave her a great ride, especially considering the horse took a right turn out of the gate and spotted the field a couple lengths. Whether or not riding the potentially dead rail till midstretch cost her a victory is certainly questionable but I'd say it didn't.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with this, if anything the track was very tiring and not kind to speed... which means the firster that won the maiden race for Baffert might actually be as good as advertised on the toteboard, and also Shackleford should be upgraded going forward.

For what it's worth I bet St. John's River and thought Rosie gave her a great ride, especially considering the horse took a right turn out of the gate and spotted the field a couple lengths. Whether or not riding the potentially dead rail till midstretch cost her a victory is certainly questionable but I'd say it didn't.

You should call Bobby Flay and Emeril

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by philcski

I agree with this, if anything the track was very tiring and not kind to speed... which means the firster that won the maiden race for Baffert might actually be as good as advertised on the toteboard, and also Shackleford should be upgraded going forward.

For what it's worth I bet St. John's River and thought Rosie gave her a great ride, especially considering the horse took a right turn out of the gate and spotted the field a couple lengths. Whether or not riding the potentially dead rail till midstretch cost her a victory is certainly questionable but I'd say it didn't.

I agree 100% about Rosie's ride, in pre-race interview she said her instructions were to get to the rail as quick as possible and go from there...she looked like Borel the way she road the rail then split horses and came late, very unlucky not to win the Oaks. In the same interview Friday and one Saturday, she said her instructions on Pants on Fire was to get good position and stay 4-5 back, exactly what she did. Unfortunately, she had no horse in the stretch. I'm really high on her, at 23 she's really coming into her own (first female jock to win riding title at Fair Grounds this year), and I've yet to see her give a poor ride.