3-year-olds with a look in The Met Mile

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think several of the 3-year-olds in this crop would have an outstanding look in a race like the Met Mile.

In my opinion - the single best race run in America so far this year was the Fountain of Youth.

The pace figure was a totally scorching fast 114 - the final time figure a very strong 113.

* This One's For Phil was the leader after six furlongs - so he turned in that monster number in the FoY. Watching film of him through his career - he looks like the classic 'have a target, don't be one' kind of horse.

After the FoY - they said he was injured and out indefinetly .. than the next week he shows up in the Swale. With the addition of Gomez riding and without taking him away from the pony for a strong warm-up .. he ran huge in the Swale against the impressive perfect trip Big Drama.

* Capt. Candyman Can was 3rd only two lengths off of This One's For Phil's scorching fast pace. He cut-back in distance next out and stylishly won the Bay Shore in final time just 2/5ths slower than Grade 1 older males ran in the Carter on the same card. Taqrub .. who was 4th after six furlongs in the FoY and faded badly .. ran a clear 2nd in the Bay Shore.

* Theregoesjojo was 5th at the pace call in the FoY - just 5.5 lengths off of This One's For Phil's blazing pace ... while exposed as a closing sprinter/miler in the Florida Derby next out ... he would have a sneaky longshot look in the Met Mile if the pace is strong.

* Big Drama is also a threat. He's crossed the wire 1st in six in a row .. including beating TOFP to the wire in dream trip fashion in a rapidly run Swale .. and beating Wood 2nd place finisher West Side Bernie in a two turn route.

Obviously Quality Road - who was pressing TOFP in the FoY and won in dominant fashion would be very tough to beat in the Met but might only run there if he bombs in the Derby and comes back 100%. Even a horse like Old Fashioned .. who I think is probably more a two-turn speed type .. could be a strong factor in the Met if he performs poorly in the Derby.


There are also several very nice 3yo male sprint prospects who would be suspect at getting a mile but can run. You Luckie Mann ran a 107 Beyer at age 2 and a 109 last time out.

Silver City ran a triple digit Beyer going 6.5 furlongs at Churcill as a 2yo. He has been torturing Old Fashioned on the front end all year.

Zensational only has a rapid maiden win and a loss as a 1/9 favorite in a failed route expierment .. but he is going to be a dynamite spritner imo.

[sumitas]

If any number of reckless owners owned one of those 3 year olds surely they would buy your argument . Myself, too much too soon is ill advised . What's the point ?

[King Glorious]

The trainers/owners of:

Conquistador Cielo (1982 winner, 3yo champ, HOY)
Gulch (1987)
Housebuster (2nd 1990 between Criminal Type and Easy Goer, sprint champ)
Dixie Brass (1992)
Holy Bull (1994, 3yo champ, HOY)
Honour and Glory

Would all agree. Too much, too soon.

The weight break that a 3yo would get this early in the year makes this the perfect time to do it. What is the difference between facing a 4yo at 8f or a fellow 3yo at 8f? You still have to run the distance in 93-95 seconds. If you have a 3yo that can run a 1:34 and run a 110 Beyer, are you going to tell me that he can't beat a horse that runs 1:35 and 100 simply because that horse is 4yo or older? Especially when the 3yo might be getting a weight break of 8-10 lbs?

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The trainers/owners of:

Conquistador Cielo (1982 winner, 3yo champ, HOY)
Gulch (1987)
Housebuster (2nd 1990 between Criminal Type and Easy Goer, sprint champ)
Dixie Brass (1992)
Holy Bull (1994, 3yo champ, HOY)
Honour and Glory

Would all agree. Too much, too soon.

The weight break that a 3yo would get this early in the year makes this the perfect time to do it. What is the difference between facing a 4yo at 8f or a fellow 3yo at 8f? You still have to run the distance in 93-95 seconds. If you have a 3yo that can run a 1:34 and run a 110 Beyer, are you going to tell me that he can't beat a horse that runs 1:35 and 100 simply because that horse is 4yo or older? Especially when the 3yo might be getting a weight break of 8-10 lbs?

imo it would be wise to look for a softer spot amongst peers and allow the 3 yr old to develop one race at a time .

[blackthroatedwind]

This is why posting sensible stuff is near impossible. It's like trying to have an intelligent conversation at a party and having some nitwit continuously interrupting with senseless jibberish.

[sumitas]

I like to see horses develop not pushed to the max or beyond their max asap . Just my opinion . Maybe these 3 year olds can win the Met . That sweeping one turn mile at Belmont is conducive to their more fragile physiology at 3 I'll grant you that .

It's kind of odd to me that horse racing seems to start at the top and then the horses are dropped if they falter . Kind of a reverse development if you look at the way any other athletes are developed .

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The trainers/owners of:

Conquistador Cielo (1982 winner, 3yo champ, HOY)
Gulch (1987)

and of course the connections of those two were so perplexed they went ahead and ran in the Belmont Stakes 12 days later...and finished 1st and 3rd respectively. No, the sport hasn't changed much at all!!

[Travis Stone]

What about Stardom Bound in the Met Mile?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What about Stardom Bound in the Met Mile?

What about Nicanor?

NT

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What about Stardom Bound in the Met Mile?

I heard fillies get to start from the 7/8ths pole on the turf!

[Linny]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

and of course the connections of those two were so perplexed they went ahead and ran in the Belmont Stakes 12 days later...and finished 1st and 3rd respectively. No, the sport hasn't changed much at all!!

When CC did it the Belmont was 5 days after the Met Mile!

[packerbacker7964]

With the way everything is going unless Commentater was entered I'd run the Met Mile with a short horse before I'd try the Derby with hm. Old Fashioned would run better in the Met Mile with a higher placing then the Derby.

[blackthroatedwind]

Old Fashioned is really the one who belongs in the Met.

I was talking about this on the show Saturday, and this is clearly the year for 3YOs to race against older horses, as they are much slower in general than their younger counterparts.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Old Fashioned is really the one who belongs in the Met.

I was talking about this on the show Saturday, and this is clearly the year for 3YOs to race against older horses, as they are much slower in general than their younger counterparts.

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.

With The Pamplemousse off the Derby Trail now, after looking at the list of probable Derby contestants, I'm hard-pressed to find a horse that will be in front of Old Fashioned at Churchill Downs. Given his trainer's recent record at the Derby, I would not be shocked to see a loose-on-the lead Old Fashioned turn in a Hard Spun-type effort in the Derby. It's a lot different setting the pace, even if it's fast, than it is chasing it, as he was forced to do in the Rebel and Southwest.

All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.

With The Pamplemousse off the Derby Trail now, after looking at the list of probable Derby contestants, I'm hard-pressed to find a horse that will be in front of Old Fashioned at Churchill Downs. Given his trainer's recent record at the Derby, I would not be shocked to see a loose-on-the lead Old Fashioned turn in a Hard Spun-type effort in the Derby. It's a lot different setting the pace, even if it's fast, than it is chasing it, as he was forced to do in the Rebel and Southwest.

All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

I feel the same way as you do. While I don't really like the chances of Old Fashioned in the Kentucky Derby, I do think that the way the Arkansas Derby will play out could lead to a dominating (yet deceiving) victory. Off of that, it's almost impossible not to go on to Kentucky and as you noted, the scratch of The Pamplemousse certainly doesn't hurt Old Fashioned's chances. When you think of Hard Spun and Lion Heart in recent years as horses that didn't really want 10f but got out there and had it their own way, you want to give Old Fashioned a little bit longer of a look.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.



All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

Oh I assume he'll do enough for his connections to let him get drowned in the Derby. After that it would be a good a move for them to try the Met. They probably won't even consider it, but in my opinion, they should.

But, what do I know, when connections like Darley take a horse like Past the Point, who runs a terrific race in the Woodward, and then race him on synthetics, denying very real chances in Grade 1s like the Donn and Carter, it only reinforces the thought that far too often horses are denied their best chances to shine by misguided decisions.

Which spot will be tougher this year......the Whitney or the Jim Dandy? At this point there is a very real chance it will be the Jim Dandy. How many 3YOs do you think will race in the Whitney?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Oh I assume he'll do enough for his connections to let him get drowned in the Derby. After that it would be a good a move for them to try the Met. They probably won't even consider it, but in my opinion, they should.

But, what do I know, when connections like Darley take a horse like Past the Point, who runs a terrific race in the Woodward, and then race him on synthetics, denying very real chances in Grade 1s like the Donn and Carter, it only reinforces the thought that far too often horses are denied their best chances to shine by misguided decisions.

Which spot will be tougher this year......the Whitney or the Jim Dandy? At this point there is a very real chance it will be the Jim Dandy. How many 3YOs do you think will race in the Whitney?

You're not going to get an argument from me about whether I'd like to see 3YOs taking on their elders earlier than has been the trend in recent years. It wasn't all that long ago that horses like Java Gold and Easy Goer prepped for the Travers in the Whitney, but that seems like ages ago.

Due to the competition from the Haskell and increasingly the West Virginia Derby, the Jim Dandy has largely been a race in recent years that has had one standout and a lot of allowance-type filler, even when we have a good crop of 3YOs such as in 2007. By comparison, perhaps with the exception of 2008 (due to weakness in the handicap division), the Whitney has been a legitimate Grade I race (almost a summit-meeting of division leaders) year after year. This year may be an anomoly; it's far too early to tell.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Even a horse like Old Fashioned .. who I think is probably more a two-turn speed type ..

He is a puzzle.

It isn't clear whether he has regressed/is a little cheap, or that he was simply chasing a stupid pace for the last two races. AND whether or not he can ignore fast pace-setters and just cruise somewhat forwardly and finish somewhat decent (which should be enough to win the Arkansas Derby sans Dutrow magic)

Not even sure he could shorten up at a top class. Could be wrong about that too.

[Linny]

If Quality Road misses the Derby with a crack, I think they should go to the Met Mile.

[DaTruth]

Nuclear Wayne was impressive at Fair Grounds this winter for Asmussen. He will be a good one if the wheels haven't already already fallen off.