3-year-olds with a look in The Met Mile
 

I think several of the 3-year-olds in this crop would have an outstanding look in a race like the Met Mile.

In my opinion - the single best race run in America so far this year was the Fountain of Youth.

The pace figure was a totally scorching fast 114 - the final time figure a very strong 113.

* This One's For Phil was the leader after six furlongs - so he turned in that monster number in the FoY. Watching film of him through his career - he looks like the classic 'have a target, don't be one' kind of horse.

After the FoY - they said he was injured and out indefinetly .. than the next week he shows up in the Swale. With the addition of Gomez riding and without taking him away from the pony for a strong warm-up .. he ran huge in the Swale against the impressive perfect trip Big Drama.

* Capt. Candyman Can was 3rd only two lengths off of This One's For Phil's scorching fast pace. He cut-back in distance next out and stylishly won the Bay Shore in final time just 2/5ths slower than Grade 1 older males ran in the Carter on the same card. Taqrub .. who was 4th after six furlongs in the FoY and faded badly .. ran a clear 2nd in the Bay Shore.

* Theregoesjojo was 5th at the pace call in the FoY - just 5.5 lengths off of This One's For Phil's blazing pace ... while exposed as a closing sprinter/miler in the Florida Derby next out ... he would have a sneaky longshot look in the Met Mile if the pace is strong.

* Big Drama is also a threat. He's crossed the wire 1st in six in a row .. including beating TOFP to the wire in dream trip fashion in a rapidly run Swale .. and beating Wood 2nd place finisher West Side Bernie in a two turn route.

Obviously Quality Road - who was pressing TOFP in the FoY and won in dominant fashion would be very tough to beat in the Met but might only run there if he bombs in the Derby and comes back 100%. Even a horse like Old Fashioned .. who I think is probably more a two-turn speed type .. could be a strong factor in the Met if he performs poorly in the Derby.


There are also several very nice 3yo male sprint prospects who would be suspect at getting a mile but can run. You Luckie Mann ran a 107 Beyer at age 2 and a 109 last time out.

Silver City ran a triple digit Beyer going 6.5 furlongs at Churcill as a 2yo. He has been torturing Old Fashioned on the front end all year.

Zensational only has a rapid maiden win and a loss as a 1/9 favorite in a failed route expierment .. but he is going to be a dynamite spritner imo.

If any number of reckless owners owned one of those 3 year olds surely they would buy your argument . Myself, too much too soon is ill advised . What's the point ?

The trainers/owners of:

Conquistador Cielo (1982 winner, 3yo champ, HOY)
Gulch (1987)
Housebuster (2nd 1990 between Criminal Type and Easy Goer, sprint champ)
Dixie Brass (1992)
Holy Bull (1994, 3yo champ, HOY)
Honour and Glory

Would all agree. Too much, too soon.

The weight break that a 3yo would get this early in the year makes this the perfect time to do it. What is the difference between facing a 4yo at 8f or a fellow 3yo at 8f? You still have to run the distance in 93-95 seconds. If you have a 3yo that can run a 1:34 and run a 110 Beyer, are you going to tell me that he can't beat a horse that runs 1:35 and 100 simply because that horse is 4yo or older? Especially when the 3yo might be getting a weight break of 8-10 lbs?

Old Fashioned is really the one who belongs in the Met.

I was talking about this on the show Saturday, and this is clearly the year for 3YOs to race against older horses, as they are much slower in general than their younger counterparts.

imo it would be wise to look for a softer spot amongst peers and allow the 3 yr old to develop one race at a time .

This is why posting sensible stuff is near impossible. It's like trying to have an intelligent conversation at a party and having some nitwit continuously interrupting with senseless jibberish.

I like to see horses develop not pushed to the max or beyond their max asap . Just my opinion . Maybe these 3 year olds can win the Met . That sweeping one turn mile at Belmont is conducive to their more fragile physiology at 3 I'll grant you that .

It's kind of odd to me that horse racing seems to start at the top and then the horses are dropped if they falter . Kind of a reverse development if you look at the way any other athletes are developed .

How about the fact that all of the horses mentioned HAVE been competing at the highest levels, and the Met Mile would actually be LESS DEMANDING than the alternative?

I'm all for the safety of the horses, but do you ever think before you write?

Any 3yo that is in the top 10-15 in graded earnings right now is pretty much a known commodity. If you have a sharp 3yo with the look of a miler, you're crazy not to try. The whole "go slow and see what we have" thing is crazy after having pressed for graded earnings on the Derby prep trail.
If I had a 3yo that just won an allowance in April do I toss him in the Met? No-though this year might be different. OTOH, if he has some foundation and is tested and wants a mile, why not?
Id rather take a shot than get sucked into races like the Peter Pan, Dwyer, Haskell, Jim Dandy at longer routes for no glory. I go to the Met and can still get back 5 weeks later in the Dwyer if I choose.

Regal Ransom would be a Met type but I'll be betting on him returning i the Discovery instead. The 'Mousse to, had he not gotten hurt.

I'll ignore the rude posters .

Horse racing is outside the mainstream of developing their athletes . That is clear . Any other sport develops from the bottom up . It seems to me horse racing, in general , rushes their athletes to their detriment and to the detriment of the sport .

Exactly. The fact is that this year, it looks like the 3yos are overall a better group of horses than the older ones. In that light, staying in your own division and facing those horses would be the more demanding thing to do.

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.

With The Pamplemousse off the Derby Trail now, after looking at the list of probable Derby contestants, I'm hard-pressed to find a horse that will be in front of Old Fashioned at Churchill Downs. Given his trainer's recent record at the Derby, I would not be shocked to see a loose-on-the lead Old Fashioned turn in a Hard Spun-type effort in the Derby. It's a lot different setting the pace, even if it's fast, than it is chasing it, as he was forced to do in the Rebel and Southwest.

All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

Who's being rude?

Seems to me there's a lot of good ideas in this thread and one dissenter, while good intentioned, not seeing the picture correctly.

Why dont you do everyone a favor and IGNORE us, as in ignore this website.

I feel the same way as you do. While I don't really like the chances of Old Fashioned in the Kentucky Derby, I do think that the way the Arkansas Derby will play out could lead to a dominating (yet deceiving) victory. Off of that, it's almost impossible not to go on to Kentucky and as you noted, the scratch of The Pamplemousse certainly doesn't hurt Old Fashioned's chances. When you think of Hard Spun and Lion Heart in recent years as horses that didn't really want 10f but got out there and had it their own way, you want to give Old Fashioned a little bit longer of a look.

Oh I assume he'll do enough for his connections to let him get drowned in the Derby. After that it would be a good a move for them to try the Met. They probably won't even consider it, but in my opinion, they should.

But, what do I know, when connections like Darley take a horse like Past the Point, who runs a terrific race in the Woodward, and then race him on synthetics, denying very real chances in Grade 1s like the Donn and Carter, it only reinforces the thought that far too often horses are denied their best chances to shine by misguided decisions.

Which spot will be tougher this year......the Whitney or the Jim Dandy? At this point there is a very real chance it will be the Jim Dandy. How many 3YOs do you think will race in the Whitney?

You're not going to get an argument from me about whether I'd like to see 3YOs taking on their elders earlier than has been the trend in recent years. It wasn't all that long ago that horses like Java Gold and Easy Goer prepped for the Travers in the Whitney, but that seems like ages ago.

Due to the competition from the Haskell and increasingly the West Virginia Derby, the Jim Dandy has largely been a race in recent years that has had one standout and a lot of allowance-type filler, even when we have a good crop of 3YOs such as in 2007. By comparison, perhaps with the exception of 2008 (due to weakness in the handicap division), the Whitney has been a legitimate Grade I race (almost a summit-meeting of division leaders) year after year. This year may be an anomoly; it's far too early to tell.

Any thread where Java Gold can be mentioned is a good thread. He was actually taking on older horses even earlier in the year in 1987. When he won the Whitney, one of the main rivals in that race was fellow 3yo Gulch, who had beaten older in the Met Mile earlier that year.

You all are making some good points . A fit 3 yr old with good foundation maybe deserves a shot at the Met .

and of course the connections of those two were so perplexed they went ahead and ran in the Belmont Stakes 12 days later...and finished 1st and 3rd respectively. No, the sport hasn't changed much at all!! :)