2/7 GP race 6

[hurricanefrank]

Opening leg of Pick 4 on lawn. I like #4 Bujagali (4-1) and am considering singling him. Any opinions on this race?

[blackthroatedwind]

There's a lot less speed than his last race which will help him here.

I'm on the fence, and probably not betting, but if you spread in the Pick-4 you have to use him.

I'm working hard on learning to not take a stand. I do, however, think he is only slightly less likely than Grasshopper to win an eclipse this year.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

There's a lot less speed than his last race which will help him here.

Does it really? Don't you think there's enough speed to at least stay with him?
This is terrible group but off his last effort why is he better?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Does it really? Don't you think there's enough speed to at least stay with him?
This is terrible group but off his last effort why is he better?

I think there is a world of difference between the expected pace tomorrow ( or later today ) than last time.

[Bobby Fischer]

The 5,7,14 should all go for broke on the pace.

It should be a slightly easier pace than Bujagali's last race. Last time Coa took a tight hold prior to turn1, rather than go with the cheap speed (goodkat). It is debatable whether the tactics hindered the talent that Bujagali has shown on turf.

This time they will be entering the turn by the time the pace is established. If they fire, Bujagali will have to continue with a cheap escort up the backstretch. lol.

Bravo isn't a superstar but he has a solid horse here in Holiday Trippi. The course dynamics favor Bujagali. There is only about 12 or 13 seconds from gate to turn1 @ mile, as opposed to 18 seconds in an 8.5 furlong turf. Bujagali breaks alertly. Bravo will have to make sure Trippi breaks straight here. Bujagali will get perfect position.

Tiverton is an interesting element of this pace simply for the fact that he doesn't usually run in races with quite as much 1st quarter pace as we will see today. He does have quickness and tactical/positional speed, but I would guess that he will not set the pace. Bujagali will most likely out-break him, and that the best case for Tiverton would be sitting a nice rail trip in behind the speed. Castro doesn't want to see Drums of Thunder shooting the rail. Tiverton tends to flatten in the stretch, but does add to the middle pace.

My gut says Bujagali will weaken and finish out of the exacta. I could be wrong.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So who do you like?

i don't like any of them.

there is a possible opportunity to play against the fav. in the double and exacta and key him second in the tri with a bunch of horses. Not sure if I am playing this card at all. Nice turf race in the 8th though.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Obviously Holiday trip has a chance, but I feel like he's the kind of horse you try to beat at short odds. He runs second a lot and is kind of a hanger. Except of course when I needed the runner up when he broke his maiden at Saratoga. He's had a lot of chances and just doesn't seem to win.

This is obvious. He's the male counterpart to Star Dixie. And, the race he won, he had a distinct advantage over the horse he nosed out in that he had already been a longer distance - against Bold Hawk. (There's an interesting thread about that race over at Pace Advantage.)

But all the negatives against him, he still was AHEAD on the backstretch, and finished significantly ahead of Bujagali, with a worse trip. Maybe that was a complete aberration but you can't bet him at low odds and you also can't be sure that he won't be closer than expected today, either. And, maybe Drums of Thunder doesn't get pinched today, and either sits a perfect trip or contests the pace.

So, where is Bujagali's advantage exactly?

This is just a bad race to bet.

[jms62]

You have to consider the 2 and 6 here and at the possiblity of a big price in the 9.

[Bobby Fischer]

GP race 2

$62 show on 9 AUGURI

$6 exacta 6,9 with 4,6,9

total $86 wagered

[Bobby Fischer]

also $5 show on 6
and tri
6 x 3469,10,12,13,14 x 9,4= 12

$17

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

your an idiot..5 bucks to show on a 4/5 shot..

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

your an idiot..5 bucks to show on a 4/5 shot..

I like the $62 to show on the second choice with a dead chalk in the race.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I like the $62 to show on the second choice with a dead chalk in the race.

where can i sighn up...

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I like the $62 to show on the second choice with a dead chalk in the race.

He would have paid over $3 and I thought he was in shape, but it was a bad selection. Wish the 4 had run 2nd. I lost $30 bucks. next.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

your an idiot..5 bucks to show on a 4/5 shot..

don't call me an idiot pal.

first of all you have no understanding of this game , if you can't understand getting $2.40 to show on a horse that pays $3.60 to win and $2.60 to place is a good wager, you need to review your understanding of the Game.
THE WIN ODDS HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH A SHOW PAYOUT.
THE SHOW POOL DETERMINES THE SHOW PAYOUT.



being critical is fine but save the name calling.

so many times have you said things that are completely wrong on this forum , and you choose to call me a name ? And you don't even know that the show wager was wise??

I could expose you so many times over for just about anything you ever post on the subject of horse racing. That isn't right with me. I am not here to correct people or "change" people. I don't butt in, I just discuss some opinions. If that was my MO, you would give me enough material to write a novel.

As far as intelligence you should NEVER even address me. I am a master at a game you dabble in with mediocre skill. You don't even understand the things you write. Up until now I thought you were an ok guy, but enough with the personal remarks. You couldn't even have a beer with me. You are a moron compared to me. Do not ever call me an idiot. I taught myself the SAT and scored a 1390 on it. I have had a coma, I have had a blood transfusion, 2 open heart surgeries and a stroke and I still crush you in a parimutual market. Think about that for a second. What does that say about the two of us? And you criticize MY wagering???? on a 2.40 payout for a 3.60 horse. Don't ever call me an idiot or any names "HOOVES". I have posted many selections here. I do not post selections that are the ones that earn my money, and I still have consistently shown a significant profit. In a game that you stink at , While YOU choose to criticize ME. No big pick 6 or pick 4s posted here. Consistent winning with my B wagers. If you can't respect me based on the selections, and the comments I have made about HORSERACING, please do not address me. If you knew ANYTHING whatsoever about this game you would have enough respect to refrain from the name calling. You know very little, and you wish to gain favor with other members by criticizing me? At least be critical of the correct things. You on ignore. You probably will not comprehend this post, and I do not care. I am upset by your name calling. I would like for your peers to read this. Some of them will understand the dynamics and that should be decent karma for you.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

don't call me an idiot pal.

first of all you have no understanding of this game , if you can't understand getting $2.40 to show on a horse that pays $3.60 to win and $2.60 to place is a good wager, you need to review your understanding of the Game.
THE WIN ODDS HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH A SHOW PAYOUT.
THE SHOW POOL DETERMINES THE SHOW PAYOUT.



being critical is fine but save the name calling.

so many times have you said things that are completely wrong on this forum , and you choose to call me a name ? And you don't even know that the show wager was wise??

I could expose you so many times over for just about anything you ever post on the subject of horse racing. That isn't right with me. I am not here to correct people or "change" people. I don't butt in, I just discuss some opinions. If that was my MO, you would give me enough material to write a novel.

As far as intelligence you should NEVER even address me. I am a master at a game you dabble in with mediocre skill. You don't even understand the things you write. Up until now I thought you were an ok guy, but enough with the personal remarks. You couldn't even have a beer with me. You are a moron compared to me. Do not ever call me an idiot. I taught myself the SAT and scored a 1390 on it. I have had a coma, I have had a blood transfusion, 2 open heart surgeries and a stroke and I still crush you in a parimutual market. Think about that for a second. What does that say about the two of us? And you criticize MY wagering???? on a 2.40 payout for a 3.60 horse. Don't ever call me an idiot or any names "HOOVES". I have posted many selections here. I do not post selections that are the ones that earn my money, and I still have consistently shown a significant profit. In a game that you stink at , While YOU choose to criticize ME. No big pick 6 or pick 4s posted here. Consistent winning with my B wagers. If you can't respect me based on the selections, and the comments I have made about HORSERACING, please do not address me. If you knew ANYTHING whatsoever about this game you would have enough respect to refrain from the name calling. You know very little, and you wish to gain favor with other members by criticizing me? At least be critical of the correct things. You on ignore. You probably will not comprehend this post, and I do not care. I am upset by your name calling. I would like for your peers to read this. Some of them will understand the dynamics and that should be decent karma for you.

Wow. If you were to mention that you're still doing 3 packs of Lucky Strikes a day, I would be in rapture.

Hope your health is going ok. The rest is for laughs.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

don't call me an idiot pal.

first of all you have no understanding of this game , if you can't understand getting $2.40 to show on a horse that pays $3.60 to win and $2.60 to place is a good wager, you need to review your understanding of the Game.
THE WIN ODDS HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH A SHOW PAYOUT.
THE SHOW POOL DETERMINES THE SHOW PAYOUT.



being critical is fine but save the name calling.

so many times have you said things that are completely wrong on this forum , and you choose to call me a name ? And you don't even know that the show wager was wise??

I could expose you so many times over for just about anything you ever post on the subject of horse racing. That isn't right with me. I am not here to correct people or "change" people. I don't butt in, I just discuss some opinions. If that was my MO, you would give me enough material to write a novel.

As far as intelligence you should NEVER even address me. I am a master at a game you dabble in with mediocre skill. You don't even understand the things you write. Up until now I thought you were an ok guy, but enough with the personal remarks. You couldn't even have a beer with me. You are a moron compared to me. Do not ever call me an idiot. I taught myself the SAT and scored a 1390 on it. I have had a coma, I have had a blood transfusion, 2 open heart surgeries and a stroke and I still crush you in a parimutual market. Think about that for a second. What does that say about the two of us? And you criticize MY wagering???? on a 2.40 payout for a 3.60 horse. Don't ever call me an idiot or any names "HOOVES". I have posted many selections here. I do not post selections that are the ones that earn my money, and I still have consistently shown a significant profit. In a game that you stink at , While YOU choose to criticize ME. No big pick 6 or pick 4s posted here. Consistent winning with my B wagers. If you can't respect me based on the selections, and the comments I have made about HORSERACING, please do not address me. If you knew ANYTHING whatsoever about this game you would have enough respect to refrain from the name calling. You know very little, and you wish to gain favor with other members by criticizing me? At least be critical of the correct things. You on ignore. You probably will not comprehend this post, and I do not care. I am upset by your name calling. I would like for your peers to read this. Some of them will understand the dynamics and that should be decent karma for you.

please...your killing me.. your bs figures your rolling roi.. your no better than anyone on here ..your knowlage is ok at best.. put me on igore.. or piss off .. playing a 4/5 shot.. to show is the most unsound betting in history.. why.. because hes the favorite.. that means hes getting all the money..across the board in most cases..your saying that its the connections betting late exposed you.. take your shill and keep it........

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Honestly, you are an idiot for betting a even money horse to show. A big idiot. It's awful horse betting, awful.

It should be a SPOT PLAY for you when a heavy favorite figures to pay well in the show pool. It should light up in front of you. It should jump off the page.

You can't just randomly wager on the tote board, but if you have done your HOMEWORK and you understand the POOLS then you are allowed to take advantage when Strong Heavy Favorites have good value in the show pool.

It has nothing to do with the WIN POOL. If there is a decent field size and the show money is distributed in the right way... bingo.

Don't even look at the win pool when checking to see if the show pool has value. It has nothing to do with it. You have to estimate how much value and how much late money will decrease that value. There was late money. And he still paid 2.40. He could have paid more if everyone with a pulse didn't wager late and cash on that idiotic wager.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Considering you post your money wagered and won in your signature, boy are you sensitive. Seems to me if you want to brag, you should be able to take it a bit. Honestly, you are an idiot for betting a even money horse to show. A big idiot. It's awful horse betting, awful. I have some bad news for you. You have not mastered this game and I think that's pretty obvious. You know next to nothing about it. Giving out your SAT score? Classic.

First, good call on Bujagali being better than the rest. She clearly was and $5.80 was pretty good if you were very high on her. Really, who cares how people bet? It's kind of silly that people are criticized for having "bad opinions" not worthy of respect (or at least being benignly ignored) or of "knowing nothing." How do you or anyone know what others are doing and how they are doing at it? Does it really make a difference if someone thinks another person's knowledge is any good?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

also $5 show on 6 win$6
and tri
6 x 3469,10,12,13,14 x 9,4= 12 win $65

$17

$103wagered $71 returned