2/7 GP race 6
 

Opening leg of Pick 4 on lawn. I like #4 Bujagali (4-1) and am considering singling him. Any opinions on this race?

There's a lot less speed than his last race which will help him here.

I'm on the fence, and probably not betting, but if you spread in the Pick-4 you have to use him.

I'm working hard on learning to not take a stand. I do, however, think he is only slightly less likely than Grasshopper to win an eclipse this year.

Does it really? Don't you think there's enough speed to at least stay with him?
This is terrible group but off his last effort why is he better?

I think there is a world of difference between the expected pace tomorrow ( or later today ) than last time.

The 5,7,14 should all go for broke on the pace.

It should be a slightly easier pace than Bujagali's last race. Last time Coa took a tight hold prior to turn1, rather than go with the cheap speed (goodkat). It is debatable whether the tactics hindered the talent that Bujagali has shown on turf.

This time they will be entering the turn by the time the pace is established. If they fire, Bujagali will have to continue with a cheap escort up the backstretch. lol.

Bravo isn't a superstar but he has a solid horse here in Holiday Trippi. The course dynamics favor Bujagali. There is only about 12 or 13 seconds from gate to turn1 @ mile, as opposed to 18 seconds in an 8.5 furlong turf. Bujagali breaks alertly. Bravo will have to make sure Trippi breaks straight here. Bujagali will get perfect position.

Tiverton is an interesting element of this pace simply for the fact that he doesn't usually run in races with quite as much 1st quarter pace as we will see today. He does have quickness and tactical/positional speed, but I would guess that he will not set the pace. Bujagali will most likely out-break him, and that the best case for Tiverton would be sitting a nice rail trip in behind the speed. Castro doesn't want to see Drums of Thunder shooting the rail. Tiverton tends to flatten in the stretch, but does add to the middle pace.

My gut says Bujagali will weaken and finish out of the exacta. I could be wrong.

You have to consider the 2 and 6 here and at the possiblity of a big price in the 9.

This is obvious. He's the male counterpart to Star Dixie. And, the race he won, he had a distinct advantage over the horse he nosed out in that he had already been a longer distance - against Bold Hawk. (There's an interesting thread about that race over at Pace Advantage.)

But all the negatives against him, he still was AHEAD on the backstretch, and finished significantly ahead of Bujagali, with a worse trip. Maybe that was a complete aberration but you can't bet him at low odds and you also can't be sure that he won't be closer than expected today, either. And, maybe Drums of Thunder doesn't get pinched today, and either sits a perfect trip or contests the pace.

So, where is Bujagali's advantage exactly?

This is just a bad race to bet.

Well, Holiday Trip is scratched. So is the #5 Cant Stop Me , who figured to possibly add to the pace.

Both of these changes help Bujagali. He has a better probability to win and a better probability in the exacta than this morning lol. He also figures to go off at a LOW price.


I think with a confident ride (letting the horse run early) by Coa, there is a fair chance that with as cheap as the other speed is, Bujagali could inherit the easy lead midway on the 2NDturn with most everything else pushing and working hard to come anywhere close to even terms. Coa probably would be unwise to rate much at all here.

Tiverton also becomes more important in terms of how much mid-race pressure he applies.

i don't like any of them.

there is a possible opportunity to play against the fav. in the double and exacta and key him second in the tri with a bunch of horses. Not sure if I am playing this card at all. Nice turf race in the 8th though.

Is there no love for Big Jerome?

He is a little cheap. I wonder how weak that 10k claimer that he won was. Horses like LOT don't get bet down to 2.2-1 every day. He shyed away from other horses like 5 times last race.

If you want a trip to look at consider#9 Auguri. The old guy is still better than a lot of these. Last time he was on the outside post broke well but cheap speed forced him to take it wide and cut in behind for the turn. Then he made some headway and checked slightly on the backstretch. Still challenged at the top of the lane.
Today there are 7 horses to his inside and only 5 have quickness and he gets 6 more seconds to run to the turn.

The #4 Thats an Outrage will also be tossed from a lot of exotics by simulcast players because of his jockey. Could be useful underneath.

Right here S2S. I love his closing kick, and I think he will show more of it today than he did last out.

I noticed that: the classic repeated JERK in combo with the LOOSE REIN. Kent D replaces Nunez today, which brings up the interesting question: whose ride was worse last out, Nunez' on LoT or Kent's on Scolara?

the 1 drums of thunder will run ok..

was drums of thunder on the derby trail last year?

Yes. Drums was 2nd in the Holy Bull , but hasn't finished well in a race since.

He's interesting if, for no other reason, he's pace consideration. Half of me thinks he's a dead send from there today and that there's some chance he's going to run good. But he just doesn't look very good, despite his trouble in his last start. His work pattern isn't great either with layoff >> one work>>race>>one work>>race>>one work>>today. Hopefully, for me, he gets sent.

I think Note to Harry gets sent here for sure. Why else do you go to PAco Lopez? But who really knows if he can keep up with the 1-4 in this?

I am playing Jerome in here to win at 6-1+. He's cheap as hell but he's more likely than the others with a contending chance to get his trip with the possible exception of the chalk.

I also can't see Bujagali not running well so I'll ex box Jerome with him as well as the 12 and 13.