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Old 11-02-2006, 12:42 PM
SCUDSBROTHER's Avatar
SCUDSBROTHER SCUDSBROTHER is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: L.A.
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Default Future Odds

I think there is a time and place to use these.I don't particularly like to bet them a long way out(although Pinnacle has had "no run-no bet" odds for a week or now.)That is unusual to have 1 week out(no run-no bet.)Anyways,to me,the time to use these odds to bet with is when there is a dominant favorite that you think could get beat.Let's say you like the 2nd fav,and the 4th fav in a race.They are paying 5/1,and 14/1 some place where you could lose your money if they get scratched 2 or 3 days out("all bets have action".)The thing to remember is that the 4/5 or 3/2 favorite has got just as much shot of being scratched(due to injury) as your horses do.That could result in you having 2 of the favorites in a race (at odds of 5/1,and 14/1.) This is Something you will never get on the day of the race.
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Old 11-02-2006, 05:13 PM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
The Curragh
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I think there is a time and place to use these.I don't particularly like to bet them a long way out(although Pinnacle has had "no run-no bet" odds for a week or now.)That is unusual to have 1 week out(no run-no bet.)Anyways,to me,the time to use these odds to bet with is when there is a dominant favorite that you think could get beat.Let's say you like the 2nd fav,and the 4th fav in a race.They are paying 5/1,and 14/1 some place where you could lose your money if they get scratched 2 or 3 days out("all bets have action".)The thing to remember is that the 4/5 or 3/2 favorite has got just as much shot of being scratched(due to injury) as your horses do.That could result in you having 2 of the favorites in a race (at odds of 5/1,and 14/1.) This is Something you will never get on the day of the race.
This is a point that not many understand, Scuds. Everyone worries about the fact that their own horse may not make it to the race. But in a race with a huge fav, there is an opposite effect that compensates for that risk. Namely, that the big fav doesn't make it to the race.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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