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#1
07-26-2012, 06:41 AM
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7/26: Saratoga (Day 6; Quick Call)
Dominos fell into place Wednesday with many multis coming in proving that there are few vagaries in sports betting more curious than race results. After walking through the meet's first 4 days feeling blind without a cane, winners suddenly appeared everywhere I looked for them. What was different about the approach Wednesday? Nothing. The nets were cast the same way they were Friday-Monday but most of the fish swam into them on this day. The P4's brought back $348 and $141 and the P3's provided excellent returns including 4 troikas between the 2nd-4th and 5th-7th averaging over $160.
The generous $25k P6 was a miss and it turned out to be a sextet where you needed to be aggressive and invest to catch what looked like a difficult sequence. But I was timid having incurred $1,000 in losses the first 4 days and didn't think I was in position in terms of confidence to punt a bigger money play than my average $144. The good news overall was a healthy influx of returns that stopped the bleeding and cut the early losses almost in half. Hope everybody did well! Looking unlikely that we'll avoid thunderstorms all through Thursday and that would demolish the second half of the card (6th-10th) which is scheduled for all turf. I will wait to write those races up until after decisions are made about surface and runners. Will denote main track runners that should appreciate moisture with an old fashioned 'mud mark' (*) and rework the selections after 12p if there are wholesale changes. SARATOGA RACE COURSE POST-SCRATCHES 1st: Jonathan Kiser Novice, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD) First jump race of the meet and a good one.. Best Value: #6 En Fuego 8-1 4th Next Best: #1e Delozier entry 7-2 6th/9th Exotics Use: #3 Wanganui 6-1 2nd Super Add: #9 Segeant Karakorum 4-1 10th 2nd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 St. John's River 4-5 (*) 2nd Best Value: #7 Imperial Pippin 8-1 (*) 5th Next Best: #2 North Freeway 4-1 6th Exotics Use: #1 Acting Happy 5-1 3rd 3rd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD) Dynamic Star is horse to beat but I'd be remiss if I didn't follow my own long-standing advice and key off Still Shea to Me who has the famed 'triple whammy' going: Dropping down, cutting back, turf to dirt. Adds blinkers to boot and though unsuccessful in muddy Belmont career debut, is bred to love the slop.. Best Value: #3 Still Shea to Me 6-1 (*) 8th Next Best: #6 Dynamic Star 5-2 WON ($4.10) Exotics Use: #8 Knight of Thunder 8-1 4th Super Add: #4 Perimele 3-1 2nd 4th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1a Nodebtdanny 5-2 (*) 2nd Next Best: #3 Queen Nine 9-5 4th Exotics Use: #4 Shrinking Violet 2-1 3rd Super Add: #5 Reckless Mama 10-1 5th 5th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 (POE) Star of New York 9-5 (*) 5th Best Value: #7 Jet Set Vinny 5-1 (*) 4th Next Best: #3 Bernie the Maestro 2-1 (*) WON ($6.60) Exotics Use: #5 Meridian Magic 10-1 6th <$50 P4 Play: 2: 4 3: 1-3-4-6-8 4: 1-3-4 5: 1-3-7 1x5x3x3 = $45 ($22.50 for .50) 6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Precious Metal 9-5 WON ($5.50) Best Value: #7 Coronation Day 15-1 6th Next Best: #8 Postpone 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Key Victory 12-1 5th 7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD) What a fun group! If they're giving us 12-1 on another route-going debuter from Clement, we should take it. (Remember we got Da Mi Basia Mille paying $19.80 Monday). Regal Citizen, also 12-1, is a half to the very good grasser Hyper. He Loves Me More ran well first turf and should stretch out fine. Geisha Gal is by the Agnes Tachyon, the late son of Sunday Silence who was a top quality stallion. Despite Her Form is half to SW Dyna Slam.. Most Likely: #7 Flower Mart 12-1 4th Next Best: #10 Regal Citizen 12-1 5th Best Value: #5 He Loves Me More 20-1 10th Exotics Use: #4 Geisha Gal 12-1 7th 8th: Quick Call, 3yo, 5.5f-T (P3, DD) Crazy and well-matched bunch.. Most Likely: #4 Love Those Boots 6-1 8th Best Value: #10 Drago's Best 8-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Manly 3-1 6th Exotics Use: #7 Gentleman's Code 4-1 3rd 9th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (DD) Most Likely: #1 Downtown Hottie 4-1 4th Best Value: #8 Princess Mara 10-1 7th Next Best: #10 Ginny's Classic 7-2 9th Exotics Use: #5 Sheza Heartbreaker 20-1 3rd 10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T Best Value: #2 Screenplay 5-1 7th Next Best: #4 Lighthouse Sound 4-1 WON ($6.40) Exotics Use: #5 Bell by the Ridge 12-1 4th Super Add: #3 King Ting 6-1 3rd <$75 P4 Play: 7: 1-3-4-5-6-7-8-10 8: 4-10 9: 1-8-10 10: 2-4-5 8x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 07-26-2012 at 04:25 PM. 
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#2
07-26-2012, 10:07 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#3
07-26-2012, 10:11 AM
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ACCELERATED POST TIMES IN ANTICIPATION OF HEAVY WEATHER
2 Changed from 1:35PM to 01:30 3 Changed from 2:08PM to 01:58 4 Changed from 2:41PM to 02:26 5 Changed from 3:15PM to 02:55 6 Changed from 3:49PM to 03:24 7 Changed from 4:23PM to 03:53 8 Changed from 4:57PM to 04:22 9 Changed from 5:31PM to 04:51 10 Changed from 6:04PM to 05:19
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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