Derby Trail Forums - 7/26: Saratoga (Day 6; Quick Call)

Dominos fell into place Wednesday with many multis coming in proving that there are few vagaries in sports betting more curious than race results. After walking through the meet's first 4 days feeling blind without a cane, winners suddenly appeared everywhere I looked for them. What was different about the approach Wednesday? Nothing. The nets were cast the same way they were Friday-Monday but most of the fish swam into them on this day. The P4's brought back $348 and $141 and the P3's provided excellent returns including 4 troikas between the 2nd-4th and 5th-7th averaging over $160.

The generous $25k P6 was a miss and it turned out to be a sextet where you needed to be aggressive and invest to catch what looked like a difficult sequence. But I was timid having incurred $1,000 in losses the first 4 days and didn't think I was in position in terms of confidence to punt a bigger money play than my average $144. The good news overall was a healthy influx of returns that stopped the bleeding and cut the early losses almost in half. Hope everybody did well!

Looking unlikely that we'll avoid thunderstorms all through Thursday and that would demolish the second half of the card (6th-10th) which is scheduled for all turf. I will wait to write those races up until after decisions are made about surface and runners. Will denote main track runners that should appreciate moisture with an old fashioned 'mud mark' (*) and rework the selections after 12p if there are wholesale changes.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Jonathan Kiser Novice, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

First jump race of the meet and a good one..

Best Value: #6 En Fuego 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1e Delozier entry 7-2 6th/9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wanganui 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Segeant Karakorum 4-1 10th

2nd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 St. John's River 4-5 (*) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Imperial Pippin 8-1 (*) 5th
Next Best: #2 North Freeway 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Acting Happy 5-1 3rd

3rd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Dynamic Star is horse to beat but I'd be remiss if I didn't follow my own long-standing advice and key off Still Shea to Me who has the famed 'triple whammy' going: Dropping down, cutting back, turf to dirt. Adds blinkers to boot and though unsuccessful in muddy Belmont career debut, is bred to love the slop..

Best Value: #3 Still Shea to Me 6-1 (*) 8th
Next Best: #6 Dynamic Star 5-2 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #8 Knight of Thunder 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Perimele 3-1 2nd

4th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Nodebtdanny 5-2 (*) 2nd
Next Best: #3 Queen Nine 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Shrinking Violet 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Reckless Mama 10-1 5th

5th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Star of New York 9-5 (*) 5th
Best Value: #7 Jet Set Vinny 5-1 (*) 4th
Next Best: #3 Bernie the Maestro 2-1 (*) WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Meridian Magic 10-1 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 4
3: 1-3-4-6-8
4: 1-3-4
5: 1-3-7

1x5x3x3 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)

6th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Precious Metal 9-5 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #7 Coronation Day 15-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Postpone 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Key Victory 12-1 5th

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

What a fun group! If they're giving us 12-1 on another route-going debuter from Clement, we should take it. (Remember we got Da Mi Basia Mille paying $19.80 Monday). Regal Citizen, also 12-1, is a half to the very good grasser Hyper. He Loves Me More ran well first turf and should stretch out fine. Geisha Gal is by the Agnes Tachyon, the late son of Sunday Silence who was a top quality stallion. Despite Her Form is half to SW Dyna Slam..

Most Likely: #7 Flower Mart 12-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Regal Citizen 12-1 5th
Best Value: #5 He Loves Me More 20-1 10th
Exotics Use: #4 Geisha Gal 12-1 7th

8th: Quick Call, 3yo, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Crazy and well-matched bunch..

Most Likely: #4 Love Those Boots 6-1 8th
Best Value: #10 Drago's Best 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Manly 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Gentleman's Code 4-1 3rd

9th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Downtown Hottie 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Princess Mara 10-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Ginny's Classic 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Sheza Heartbreaker 20-1 3rd

10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #2 Screenplay 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Lighthouse Sound 4-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Bell by the Ridge 12-1 4th
Super Add: #3 King Ting 6-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-4-5-6-7-8-10
8: 4-10
9: 1-8-10
10: 2-4-5

8x2x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve