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#1
04-03-2010, 05:12 AM
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4/3: AQU (2nd-11th); KEE (5th-10th); HAW (7th); SA (4th-11th)
Truly as exciting a race day as has dawned in quite a while, for me anyway and I hope for you as well... Glorious spring weather appears set for the fabulous action that's slated nationwide including the three paramount Derby Trail preps, and our
Dee Tee Stables has Lloydobler in with a shot on the Wood Memorial-Carter Handicap undercard. Keeneland got off to a huge start Friday with a record crowd pressing 25,000, and Gus Alonso got the meet out of the gate quickly nabbing the $470 (.50) P4. My own play fell short with Blushing Dixie (7th) and Valid Supreme (10th) both running maddening seconds around the favored Krypton (8th) and Nordic Truce (Transylvania). Hope you did well... Santa Anita and Aqueduct both offer $500k P4's today, and Arcadia managed to trip a $99k P6 carryover into the mix as well. ATR and DT offer a simple Derby Prep Contest today where you select one horse in the Wood, IL and SA Derbys and cumulative mutuel total wins. Email your three horses to me at tpkasept@yahoo.com and enjoy the great day! AQUEDUCT PRE-SCRATCHES 2nd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD) Best Value: #6 Lloydobler 8-1 2nd Most Likely: #5 Friendly Wager 7-2 5th Next Best: #7 Calvello 6-1 WON Exotics Use: #1a SCR 3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD, P3) Most Likely: #2 Obligingly 8-5 2nd Best Value: #6 SCR Next Best: #5 Greatsilversaint 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #3 No Questions 15-1 6th 4th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Cajun Jet 8-5 WON Best Value: #4 Brazen Cat 8-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Stormin Bolt 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #7 Ezzy 5-1 4th 5th: NYB-MSW, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Smokin Conrad 2-1 2nd Best Value: #5 Pegasus Ena 12-1 4th Next Best: #9 Gerald Loves Beer 7-2 3rd Super Add: #4 Crescent Moon Dr 15-1 8th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 1-2-5-6-7-8 3: 2-5-6 4: 4-5-7-8 5: 8 6x3x4x1 = $72 6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m -- OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Awesome Bull 2-1 7th Best Value: #7 Judicial Leader 10-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Roaring Ghost 5-2 4th Super Add: #6 Honeymoon Suite 6-1 8th 7th: 50th Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f ($500k P4, P3, DD) A ready 85/50 wins easily versus these, but potential for 'issues' to crop up (there was no 'broken bit'), opens the door for Raynick, El Rocco and first time dirt Hurricane Ike.. Most Likely: #1 Eightyfiveinafifty 4-5 WON Next Best: #2 Raynick's Jet 3-1 4th Best Value: #5 El Rocco 15-1 DNF 8th: 98th Excelsior (G3), 3+, 9f (P3, DD) Pretty much anyone but Stargleam can win this race; Don'r be shy about using ALL but the 2 in your P4.. Best Value: #5 More Than a Reason 6-1 4th Most Likely: #4 Goldsville 7-2 WON Next Best: #6 SCR 9th: 86th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD) Quirky edition of this great Derby prep features one of the 2 likely faves for Roses in Pletcher-Zayat FOY winner Eskendereya and three credentialed and rock solid sophs in import Awesome Act (Gotham), Schoolyard Dreams (Tampa Derby/Davis 2nd's) and Jackson Bend FOY/Holy Bull 2nds).. Most Likely: #3 Eskendereya (4-5): Produced crop's best fig in Fountain win; Style suits trip, oval.. WON Best Value: #2 Awesome Act 9-2: Nabbed Gotham with nify move; Main threat to top tab.. 3rd Next Best: #4 Schoolyard Dreams 5-1: Aggressively spotted for Derby dough; Adds Ramon.. 4th Exotics Use: #5 Jackson Bend 4-1: Hard-tryer won't quit, but should be one-turning.. 2nd 10th: 110th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (DD) Most Likely: #4 Musket Man 3-1 2nd Next Best: #5 Munnings 4-5 3rd Best Value: #2 Warrior's reward 9-2 WON <$50 P4 Play: Despite all the grousing about the field sizes of the All-Stakes P4 events, it's still a challenging sequence 7: 1 8: 1-3-4-5-6 9: 2-3-4 10: 2-4-5 1x5x3x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 (1-4-3-2) Paid $47.50 11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super) Most Likely: #11 So Scott 5-2 2nd Best Value: #1 Tom Kitten 6-1 WON Next Best: #4 Union Army 8-1 7th Super Add: #3 Alltiffedoff 8-1 5th KEENELAND PRE-SCRATCHES 5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Bushwhacked 2-1 WON Best Value: #4 Bless Me Father 12-1 10th Next Best: #12 Moe Man 5-1 3rd Super Add: #6 Investment Grade 5-1 6th 6th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Slides Choice 5-2 4th Best Value: #1 Sheltered 5-1 5th Next Best: #2 Perfect for You 3-1 6th Super Add: #4 Minewander 3-1 WON 7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Much Rejoicing 5-1 WON Best Value: #7 Hilda's Passion 8-1 10th Next Best: #5 Buckleupbuttercup 5-1 2nd Super Add: #8 Dynazapper 5-2 3rd 8th: ALW/C, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 SCR Best Value: #3 Tiger Woodman 15-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Bold Start 3-1 3rd Super Add: #5 Demarcation 6-1 4th 3rd 9th: 73rd Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Beautician 4-1 8th Best Value: #1 Upperline 8-1 5th Next Best: #5 She Be Wild 3-1 3rd Super Add: #3 Negligee 5-1 7th 10th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #12 War Hoot 4-1 WON Next Best: #8 SCR Best Value: #1 Cause of Freedom 5-1 7th Exotics Use: #3 Cherokee Speed 6-1 2nd High 5 Play: #2 Cosmic King 5-1 5th <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-7 8: 1-2-3-5-6-7 9: 1-3-4-5 10: 1-8-12 2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 HAWTHORNE PRE-SCRATCHES 7th: 53rd Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #4 Yawanna Twist (4-1): Tactical NYB was sharp behind Awesome Act.. 2nd Best Value: #6 Dave in Dixie (9-2): No pace to chase in Felipe; Against grain here a tad too.. 5th Next Best: #1 American Lion (7-2): How many WinStar runners in the Derby is too many? WON Super Add: #5 Turf Melody (6-1): Another exiting Gotham; Makes 10th start at 10th oval! 4th SANTA ANITA PRE-SCRATCHES 4th: 51st Arcadia (G2), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Compari 2-1 WON Next Best: #4 Fluke 5-2 2nd Exotics Use: #1 Battle of Hastings 3-1 3rd Super Add: 3 Blue Chagall 6-1 7th 5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Hennessy God 4-1 10th Best Value: #10 Scrutinizing Kat 6-1 5th Next Best: #6 Swiss Emperor 6-1 4th Super Add: #7 Playing for Keeps 9-2 8th 6th: 73rd Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super) As if SA Derby Day wasn't attractive enough, feature kicks off $99k carryover P6! Most Likely: #7 Lookin at Lucky (4-5): Better than these but regression off big Rebel a legit concern.. 3rd Best Value: #9 Skipshot (15-1): Forward-going red improving with distance; Dangerous commodity.. 5th Next Best: #4 Sidney's Candy (3-1): Sadler as anxious as anyone to see how far he goes.. WON Super Add: #6 Caracortado (5-1): Will be heartbreaker if J-T tandem fall short of Derby earnings.. 4th 7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Dances With Gable 5-2 WON Best Value: #8 Exclamation 15-1 7th Next Best: #6 Achak 8-1 2nd Super Add: #10 Trumpet Player Jay 12-1 8th 8th: 28th Potrero Grande (G2), 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Ventana 5-2 WON Best Value: #5 Off Kilter 6-1 6th Next Best: #8 Gato Go Win 7-2 2nd Super Add: #3 E Z's Gentleman 5-1 3rd 9th: 30th Providencia (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 In the Slips 5-2 3rd Next Best: #2 City to City 4-1 WON Best Value: #5 Andina 5-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Antares World 8-1 8th 10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Pincelada 2-1 WON Best Value: #4 Marrymeonemoretime 12-1 3rd Next Best: #7 Come Home Lady 7-2 7th Super Add: #10 Primed 9-2 2nd 11th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #8 Magic Launch 2-1 2nd Best Value: #10 Ava's Charm 8-1 7th Exotics Use: #9 Naughty Mariana 6-1 3rd Super Add: #3 Terrify 5-2 WON High 5 Play: #5 The Legal Blonde 8-1 5th <$300 P6 Play: 6: 4-6-7-9 7: 6-8-9 8: 6 9: 2-6 10: 4-9 11: 8-9-10 4x3x1x2x2x3 = 144 x $2 = $288 $2 Pick 6 (4-9-6-2-9-3) 5 Correct Paid $52.80 X 3 = $158.40 <$75 P4 Play: 8: 5-6-8 9: 2-5-6 10: 4-9 11: 3-8-9-10 3x3x2x4 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (6-2-9-3) Paid $145.30 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 04-04-2010 at 04:47 AM. 
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#2
04-03-2010, 06:27 AM
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Steve I'm curious did "Super G" tell you it was Easter for Lloydobler? Looks like a wonderful day weatherwise at the Big A.
__________________
"Be who you are and say what you feel, because those that matter don't mind, and those that mind, dont matter." Theodore Seuss Geisel "Dr. Seuss"
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#3
04-03-2010, 10:42 AM
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Longshot day for me
Aqueduct 6th, Fiddlers Zephyr Aqueduct 10th, Elusive Warning GP 9th, Gabriel's Hill Keeneland 8th, Ascertain Keeneland 10th, Dubai Echo Oaklawn 10th, Follow The Leader Hawthorne, Backtalk SA 4th, Golden Balls SA 6th, Skipshot Last edited by Mike : 04-03-2010 at 12:32 PM.
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#5
04-03-2010, 12:16 PM
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#8
04-03-2010, 07:12 PM
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Finish it off at SA, g/l Steve!!!!!!!!!!!
__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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#10
04-03-2010, 07:37 PM
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__________________
"Let the whiners and lazy cry about how impossible "they've" made it to win at this game." - Steve Byk
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#11
04-04-2010, 04:57 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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