Derby Trail Forums - 4/3: AQU (2nd-11th); KEE (5th-10th); HAW (7th); SA (4th-11th)

Truly as exciting a race day as has dawned in quite a while, for me anyway and I hope for you as well... Glorious spring weather appears set for the fabulous action that's slated nationwide including the three paramount Derby Trail preps, and our
Dee Tee Stables has Lloydobler in with a shot on the Wood Memorial-Carter Handicap undercard. Keeneland got off to a huge start Friday with a record crowd pressing 25,000, and Gus Alonso got the meet out of the gate quickly nabbing the $470 (.50) P4. My own play fell short with Blushing Dixie (7th) and Valid Supreme (10th) both running maddening seconds around the favored Krypton (8th) and Nordic Truce (Transylvania). Hope you did well...

Santa Anita and Aqueduct both offer $500k P4's today, and Arcadia managed to trip a $99k P6 carryover into the mix as well. ATR and DT offer a simple Derby Prep Contest today where you select one horse in the Wood, IL and SA Derbys and cumulative mutuel total wins. Email your three horses to me at tpkasept@yahoo.com and enjoy the great day!

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Lloydobler 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Friendly Wager 7-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Calvello 6-1 WON
Exotics Use: #1a SCR

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD, P3)

Most Likely: #2 Obligingly 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #5 Greatsilversaint 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 No Questions 15-1 6th

4th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Cajun Jet 8-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Brazen Cat 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Stormin Bolt 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Ezzy 5-1 4th

5th: NYB-MSW, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Smokin Conrad 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Pegasus Ena 12-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Gerald Loves Beer 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Crescent Moon Dr 15-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-5-6-7-8
3: 2-5-6
4: 4-5-7-8
5: 8

6x3x4x1 = $72

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m -- OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Awesome Bull 2-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Judicial Leader 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Roaring Ghost 5-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Honeymoon Suite 6-1 8th

7th: 50th Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f ($500k P4, P3, DD)

A ready 85/50 wins easily versus these, but potential for 'issues' to crop up (there was no 'broken bit'), opens the door for Raynick, El Rocco and first time dirt Hurricane Ike..

Most Likely: #1 Eightyfiveinafifty 4-5 WON
Next Best: #2 Raynick's Jet 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 El Rocco 15-1 DNF

8th: 98th Excelsior (G3), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Pretty much anyone but Stargleam can win this race; Don'r be shy about using ALL but the 2 in your P4..

Best Value: #5 More Than a Reason 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #4 Goldsville 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 SCR

9th: 86th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)

Quirky edition of this great Derby prep features one of the 2 likely faves for Roses in Pletcher-Zayat FOY winner Eskendereya and three credentialed and rock solid sophs in import Awesome Act (Gotham), Schoolyard Dreams (Tampa Derby/Davis 2nd's) and Jackson Bend FOY/Holy Bull 2nds)..

Most Likely: #3 Eskendereya (4-5): Produced crop's best fig in Fountain win; Style suits trip, oval.. WON
Best Value: #2 Awesome Act 9-2: Nabbed Gotham with nify move; Main threat to top tab.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Schoolyard Dreams 5-1: Aggressively spotted for Derby dough; Adds Ramon.. 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Jackson Bend 4-1: Hard-tryer won't quit, but should be one-turning.. 2nd

10th: 110th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Musket Man 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Munnings 4-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Warrior's reward 9-2 WON

<$50 P4 Play:

Despite all the grousing about the field sizes of the All-Stakes P4 events, it's still a challenging sequence

7: 1
8: 1-3-4-5-6
9: 2-3-4
10: 2-4-5

1x5x3x3 = $45 $1 Pick 4 (1-4-3-2) Paid $47.50

11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #11 So Scott 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Tom Kitten 6-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Union Army 8-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Alltiffedoff 8-1 5th

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Bushwhacked 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Bless Me Father 12-1 10th
Next Best: #12 Moe Man 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Investment Grade 5-1 6th

6th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Slides Choice 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Sheltered 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Perfect for You 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Minewander 3-1 WON

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Much Rejoicing 5-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Hilda's Passion 8-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Buckleupbuttercup 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Dynazapper 5-2 3rd

8th: ALW/C, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SCR
Best Value: #3 Tiger Woodman 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Bold Start 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Demarcation 6-1 4th

3rd
9th: 73rd Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Beautician 4-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Upperline 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 She Be Wild 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Negligee 5-1 7th

10th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #12 War Hoot 4-1 WON
Next Best: #8 SCR
Best Value: #1 Cause of Freedom 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Cherokee Speed 6-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #2 Cosmic King 5-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-7
8: 1-2-3-5-6-7
9: 1-3-4-5
10: 1-8-12

2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

HAWTHORNE

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: 53rd Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Yawanna Twist (4-1): Tactical NYB was sharp behind Awesome Act.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Dave in Dixie (9-2): No pace to chase in Felipe; Against grain here a tad too.. 5th
Next Best: #1 American Lion (7-2): How many WinStar runners in the Derby is too many? WON
Super Add: #5 Turf Melody (6-1): Another exiting Gotham; Makes 10th start at 10th oval! 4th

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 51st Arcadia (G2), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Compari 2-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Fluke 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Battle of Hastings 3-1 3rd
Super Add: 3 Blue Chagall 6-1 7th

5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hennessy God 4-1 10th
Best Value: #10 Scrutinizing Kat 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Swiss Emperor 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Playing for Keeps 9-2 8th

6th: 73rd Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

As if SA Derby Day wasn't attractive enough, feature kicks off $99k carryover P6!

Most Likely: #7 Lookin at Lucky (4-5): Better than these but regression off big Rebel a legit concern.. 3rd
Best Value: #9 Skipshot (15-1): Forward-going red improving with distance; Dangerous commodity.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Sidney's Candy (3-1): Sadler as anxious as anyone to see how far he goes.. WON
Super Add: #6 Caracortado (5-1): Will be heartbreaker if J-T tandem fall short of Derby earnings.. 4th

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Dances With Gable 5-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Exclamation 15-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Achak 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Trumpet Player Jay 12-1 8th

8th: 28th Potrero Grande (G2), 4+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Ventana 5-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Off Kilter 6-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Gato Go Win 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 E Z's Gentleman 5-1 3rd

9th: 30th Providencia (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 In the Slips 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 City to City 4-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Andina 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Antares World 8-1 8th

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Pincelada 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Marrymeonemoretime 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Come Home Lady 7-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Primed 9-2 2nd

11th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Magic Launch 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Ava's Charm 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Naughty Mariana 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Terrify 5-2 WON
High 5 Play: #5 The Legal Blonde 8-1 5th

<$300 P6 Play:

6: 4-6-7-9
7: 6-8-9
8: 6
9: 2-6
10: 4-9
11: 8-9-10

4x3x1x2x2x3 = 144 x $2 = $288 $2 Pick 6 (4-9-6-2-9-3) 5 Correct Paid $52.80 X 3 = $158.40

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5-6-8
9: 2-5-6
10: 4-9
11: 3-8-9-10

3x3x2x4 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (6-2-9-3) Paid $145.30

Good luck!
Steve