Looking For A Compelling Reason to Pick Derby Winner

[RollerDoc]

I am getting the Kentucky Derby fever. I picked the last three winners, and it would have been four in a row had Afleet Alex run the type of race he was capable of in 2005. Not bad considering that was my first year of becoming a fan of the sport and betting winners in some of the big TC races including the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup Classic. In total I have bet and won 7 winners and lost 4. Not bad for a newbie. Any way, I didn’t come on here to parade my winning record.

To try and keep my Derby streak alive, I’ve been doing my research on who I might like for next month’s Run For The Roses. This time last week, Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and The Pamplemousse were my top three picks. In just a few days, Quality Road has a quarter crack, The Pamplemousse is out for a while, and while I Want Revenge finished the Wood impressively, he had a very unimpressive start to the race. I’m not discounting him but feel a lot less confident about his chances of winning. Shades of last year’s Belmont are haunting me regarding Quality road's injury..

So at this point, I am now further from a pick I can feel good about than I was even several weeks ago. My next tier is Friesan Fire, Muskat Man, and Chocolate Candy. I’m curious if anyone has a favorite and compelling reason why as to which horse might win The Kentucky Derby.